133
FXUS61 KRNK 170100
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
900 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front extends from the lower Ohio Valley into the central
Mid-Atlantic. This front will be the focus for scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through this evening, some of
which may be severe. Additional showers and thunderstorms will
arrive overnight as a cold front approaches from the Mid-West.
Passage of the front will bring clearing Saturday with dry
weather for the remainder of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 845 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Additional heavy rain overnight into early Saturday morning,
with some gusty winds and lightning.

2) Sunny and warm tomorrow with only very low chances for
showers.

We are currently seeing a break in shower/storm activity here
currently, but additional convection will move in from the west
over the next several hours, continuing into the overnight and
early morning hours. A dangerous severe weather outbreak was
ongoing over the OH and TN Valleys, and these storms were
gradually propagating west. These storms are extremely strong,
with enhanced V signatures evident in satellite imagery, and
many reports of large hail, 60+ mph winds, and long track
tornadoes.

While convection will reach our area, current mesoanalysis
shows a large pool of stable air here thanks to earlier
convection this afternoon and the fact that it is nighttime and
we are losing short wave energy. This will help weaken the cells
somewhat as they near from the west and interact with outflow
boundaries. Cells may have gusty winds and lightning, with the
majority containing heavy rainfall and high instantaneous
rainfall rates as the main feature of the storms as they merge
into a linear MCS and move south-southeast. We expect some
areas may have flooding issues as they receive more rain on top
of what they had earlier. In general QPF amounts will be less
than an inch, with the heavier amounts over our western WV, VA
and NC mountains.



As of 502 PM EDT Friday...

Key Message:

1) Severe weather threat continues east of the Blue Ridge.

Have ended Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261. Watch #264 remains in
effect for Stokes County, NC to Craig County, VA and east
through 11 pm for additional storms that are ongoing. Will be
trimming Watch #264 as the evening continues.


As of 345 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Severe Thunderstorm Watch #261 in effect until 6PM for parts
of NW NC, western VA west of the ROA Valley, and southern WV
generally south of I-64. Severe Thunderstorm Watch #264 across
the remainder of southern VA and northern NC through 11PM.

2) Strong to severe storms expected with potential for large
damaging hail.

3) More storms expected overnight as another MCS moves in from
KY. Severe winds/hail possible.

18Z RNK sounding says it all with SBCAPE of 4000 j/kg. Capping
inversion just above 850 MB is keeping premature deep convection
to a minimum, allowing for MCS to take full advantage of the
environment. Storms within this environment can/will produce
destructive hail, downburst winds and vivid lightning. Storms
have been producing just as many positive strikes as they are
negative...the positive strikes providing a jolt 10X that of a
negative stroke. When the storms crossed the New River Valley,
blinding rain and wind reported. We measured a 55kt gust
(63mph) here at the NWS office.

Per latest SPC discussion, supercells within WW 261 have
consolidated into clusters. How this activity evolves east of
WW 261 is rather uncertain...but do think high probability for
activity to progress east along the VA/NC border all the way to
Danville. That said, a new Watch (WW264) has been issued for
the foothills and piedmont of southern VA and northern NC (along
VA/NC border).

Current MCS is expected to exit the CWA this evening, leaving
lull or break between yet another MCS that is expected to
develop farther upstream across MO and western KY, moving east
again, and crossing the southern Appalachians during the
overnight.

Saturday will feature morning clouds but think westerly winds
will bring drying for the afternoon, passage of the cold front
bringing an end to the shower/storm threat for the remainder of
the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Windy conditions during weekend

2) A few small chances of precipitation before another front arrives
mid-next week

With a cold front passing through this weekend, winds will be
northwesterly and considerably gusty along and west of the Blue
Ridge. Model guidance suggests sustained winds of 10-15 mph and wind
gusts of 25-35 mph. Winds at the highest elevations may be a little
stronger due to a low level jet.

Winds will calm down by Monday afternoon as the Mid-Atlantic will be
in a smaller pressure gradient. Dew points and temperatures will
take a small hit but are expected to recover by the middle of next
week as a warm front approaches from the west. Dew points will still
be in the 50s and PWATs will also be at least 1" for the more
southern counties. Some 500mb shortwaves are expected to pass
through the region prior to the next cold front which could bring
some additional precipitation chances for the more western and
mountainous counties. Given it is May, this precipitation will
likely be in the form of thunderstorms though severe weather is
currently unlikely.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Chance of widespread precipitation mid-next week

2) Drier air to move in

A surface low is projected to pass through the region mid-next week
but specific impacts will be determined on its trajectory. This low
is expected to be dragging fronts with it but it`s position relative
to our area will determine if our area gets a cold front, a warm
front, or both. Precipitation is the highest with this system next
week, but it is too early to know of any severe weather hazards or
how much precipitation will accompany this system.

The air mass that follows it will be considerably drier with dew
points lowering into the 50s region-wide and PWATs tanking to
about 0.25-0.50 inches. The air temperatures also may be a
little cooler with highs in the upper 60s and lower 70s towards
the Piedmont.

An upper level low is projected to pass through the northeast
portion of CONUS towards the end of next week but model guidance is
currently unsure if it will be a cut off low. The upper low looks to
move slowly regardless of this and provide multiple vorticity
maxima to the Mid-Atlantic. With the dry conditions, however,
additional precipitation is unlikely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 900 PM EDT Friday...

Additional storms are expected to arrive late tonight into early
Saturday morning from the TN/OH Valleys, reaching us as a bkn-
solid line of storms crossing the central Appalachians between
04Z-10Z. Expect mainly MVFR restrictions, with some IFR possible
at times. Very heavy rain, gusty winds, and some lightning are
expected, but severe weather is unlikely. SW winds will gust
into the 20 to 30 kt range as the system moves through. Expect
very gusty westerly winds on Saturday.

Much improved, VFR flight conditions are expected Saturday.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Dry weather is expected through Sunday. High pressure ridging
into the Mid-Atlantic Sunday and into early next week, keeping
the weather quiet with likely VFR conditions for all terminals.
Unsettled weather returns Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.EQUIPMENT...
As of 900 PM EDT Friday...

The National Weather Service Weather Forecast Office in
Blacksburg, VA has finished a required, scheduled update to
their Advanced Weather Interactive Processing System (AWIPS)
that began Tuesday, May 13, 2025.

While most of our services are back to normal, there may still
be issues with delayed or missing products until all services
are restored in the next few days. No impacts to our core
services of forecast products and weather watches, warnings and
advisories are expected during this period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...PM/SH
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/SH
EQUIPMENT...SH