Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
152 FXUS61 KRNK 131049 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 649 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system heads off the mid-Atlantic coast today, then out to sea Tuesday. A dry front then pushes across midweek with cooler temperatures behind it. High pressure controls our weather for the late week into Saturday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 320 AM EDT Monday... Key Message: 1) Gradually scattering of clouds today with some gusty winds. There could be a few pockets of drizzle lingering across portions of the area early this morning, conditions should largely be dry with mostly cloudy skies. Despite a vort lobe flirting with the northern/eastern CWA today from an upper low, conditions should remain dry and most of the moisture should remain east of the area. Cloud coverage should gradually scatter by mid morning into the afternoon and some enhanced gradient winds look to gust out of the NE to NW. The piece of energy continues to push southward and merges with the other coastal low and advects further eastward off the mid- Atlantic coast by this evening into tonight, allowing for subsidence and dry ridging to take over. Temps rebound today mainly getting into the mid to upper 60s for the mountains and low to mid 70s for the Piedmont. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... As of 235 AM EDT MONDAY... Key Messages: 1) Dry quiet period of weather 2) Strong diurnal swing on Thursday leading to a chilly night An Atlantic coastal low exits to the east as mid-level ridging expands to cover the Mid-Atlantic out of the deep south. This ridging will suppress any cloud formation and encourage a dry, slightly above normal temperature profile. Late on Wednesday a front will cross the area with no fanfare (precipitation) as a result of the dry environment. It will increase winds so that Wednesday afternoon and overnight is a breezy environment. Wind gusts could reach 20 MPH in the mountains. Early Thursday morning could have some patchy frost in high elevation valleys, however, the breezy conditions could act to limit radiative cooling. Most areas will still remain in the 40s. Daytime highs will range from the mid-60s to mid-70s. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 330 AM EDT MONDAY... Key Messages: 1) Frost possible in mountains Friday morning 2) Rain to return with another cold front this weekend Both surface high pressure and a ridge will maintain clear skies in the region. In the wake of a cold front late Wednesday, more stagnant high pressure will take hold of the weather conditions. A dry, clear, slow moving atmosphere will allow strong radiative cooling in the coolest air of the week overnight Thursday into Friday morning. The coldest temperatures of the week will reach into the mid to low 30s west of the Blue Ridge, likely causing frost in those areas. Temperatures will rebound quickly, taking highs well above normal by Saturday. A cold front is progged to enter the area sometime on Sunday, bringing the next round of precipitation. Impacts and the length of this event are unclear at this point in the forecast. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 645 AM EDT Monday... Mainly MVFR/IFR cigs across the sites this morning (possible lower cigs/vsbys if fog at LWB). This should gradually lift and scatter today allowing for VFR conditions by mid-morning into afternoon. Winds increase out of the NE to NW today 9-12 kts with gusts 15-20 kts, then some decreasing magnitudes this evening. There is the potential for some lower cigs again for some of the mountain sites later tonight into Tuesday morning. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Aviation pattern looks favorable through Friday, outside of any fog at valley airports like LWB in the late night/early morning time frame. High pressure will build into the area and persist through the week. A northerly wind will be elevated Tuesday into Wednesday, with gusts of near 20 knots possible at times. Winds reduce for the late week with quiet weather lasting into the weekend. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP NEAR TERM...AB SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...AB/JCB