897
FXUS61 KRNK 060001
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
801 PM EDT Sat Oct 5 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move off to our east Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the region Sunday
night, leading to cooler and drier air. Cool high pressure will
build back in Monday through Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Saturday...

Areas of fog expected once again tonight as high pressure
remains over the area and dewpoints/humidity levels remain
unusually high for early October. Persistence is the best
forecast with no significant change in air mass, clear skies,
light east-southeast to calm winds, and high dewpoints for this
time of year.

High temperatures were a degree or two warmer today than
expected which could potentially result in overnight lows being
a bit warmer as well. Blended the overnight low temperatures
with several near term models to reflect this. Lows overall will
be mostly in the 50s as was the case this morning.

Previous valid discussions...

As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Patchy fog possible tonight along/west of the Blue Ridge

High pressure continues to build into the region from the Great
Lakes. A few patchy afternoon fair weather cumulus clouds were
present across the region, but overall lots of sunshine with
temperatures largely in the 70s to low 80s for highs.

Tonight, easterly flow with the high shifting into the Mid-
Atlantic region will bring another period of low stratus and/or
fog for Sunday morning, primarily along and west of the Blue
Ridge. However, some guidance also suggests some fog potential
across the Piedmont of NC and VA. Good radiational cooling will
favor lows in the upper 40s to low 50s for the mountains and mid
to upper 50s over the Piedmont.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:
1. Scattered showers and storms in the mountains Sunday night

Aloft, a shortwave trough over the Great Lakes will track into
eastern Canada. At the surface, high pressure over the region will
shift offshore Sun evening. This will be ahead of a strong cold
front that will move through late Sun night into Mon morning. Behind
it, high pressure will extend into the region from the Mid MS
valley. Highs on Sun will range in the upper 70s to lower 80s, with
upper 60s to lower 70s in the higher elevations. Come Sun night, as
the cold front approaches, we`ll see the threat of showers and some
storms, largely west of the Blue Ridge and confined across far SE WV
and SW VA into the Allegheny Highlands. The latest CAM
solutions indicate a broken line of showers and embedded storms
late Sun into early Mon, roughly between 10 PM and 2 AM. Severe
potential looks limited, although SPC has a marginal risk of
severe north of our area into central WV. As showers cross into
the Blue Ridge, models show activity waning and dissipating once
they reach the Foothills and Piedmont. Some gusty winds of
20-30 mph are possible over the higher elevations Sun night
along and behind the front. Lows should dip into the upper 40s
to low 50s in the higher terrain and upper 50s to low 60s into
the Foothills and Piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages: 1. Dry and quiet weather with near to slightly
below normal temperatures

This part of the forecast will remain rather quiet. Aloft, we will
largely be under NW flow with troughing over the Great Lakes and
northern Mid-Atlantic region. Come late in the week and weekend Fri
and Sat, ridging from the Mid MS valley will eventually slide east
into our region. At the surface, high pressure will extend into the
area from the Midwest and TN valley region into about midweek.
Guidance then shows another continental surface high building
southward late in the week out of the Great Lakes and Canada.

The two aforementioned areas of high pressure should keep our area
for the most part quiet with near to slightly below normal high
temperatures. Tropical Storm Milton should stay well to our
south with no impacts expected. The only other important weather
concern would be the potential for frost in the early and
latter part of the week. WPC is highlighting frost potential Tue
and Wed mornings across the higher elevations. This would be
behind the initial cold frontal passage Mon morning, with cool
high pressure settling overhead. Lows Tue/Wed mornings should
range in the upper 30s to low 40s in higher elevations, to the
upper 40s to low 50s over the Piedmont. Some middle 30s are
possible during this period in isolated spots of the higher
terrain. For the latter part of the week, NBM shows a 40-50
percent chance of frost and temperatures in the 30s over SE WV,
the Allegheny Highlands, and parts of SW VA. This will continue
to be monitored as we get closer, given it is still several
days out. As for highs during the period, we will see highs
across the higher elevations in the mid 60s and low 70s over the
Piedmont. The one exception will be Mon with upper 70s over the
Piedmont just prior to cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Saturday...

Synopsis: High pressure surface and aloft will remain over the
area through Sunday. Light east to southeast winds will prevail
overnight. Little to no change in the air mass from the past
couple of days will leave the area with continued unusually high
dewpoints and the development of areas of dense fog. This will
likely affect most if not all of the TAF sites to varying
degrees, with ROA being the least impacted, but even there fog
is possible due to southeast surface flow.

Ceilings...VFR through most of the TAF valid period outside of
areas of BKN-OVC/VV 001-003 in areas of fog generally in the
08Z-13Z time frame Sunday morning.

Visibilities...VFR outside of the 05Z-13Z time frame when IFR-
LIFR visibilities likely in areas of fog for most TAF sites.
ROA may get by with just MVFR conditions.

Winds...ENE-ESE through 13Z, then becoming SSW-SW after daybreak
Sunday. Speeds light through the period, mostly 0kts-5kts
overnight, then 5-10kts during the day Sunday.

Extended Aviation Discussion...
Gusty winds are possible behind a cold front moving through
Sunday night and early Monday in the mountains. BLF and LWB may
see an isolated shower as the front moves through, but most of
the rainfall looks to dissipate as it crosses the Alleghany
front. Otherwise, Canadian high pressure will dominate the
region most of next week. Outside of patchy morning fog with
increasing probability later on in the week, VFR conditions are
likely to prevail throughout the period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...BMG/RAB
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...RAB