823
FXUS61 KRNK 121032
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
632 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm above normal temperatures and dry conditions will continue
through the end of the week. Rain chances increase over the
weekend, along with a chance of thunderstorms, as a result of an
approaching frontal system. A brief cool down behind the front,
but temperatures will climb back above normal next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Sunny, dry, and above normal temperatures.

Temperatures this morning range from the low 40s to low/mid 50s.
Mixing at the higher elevations have kept temperatures elevated
and some ridgetops may not dip below 50F. Lower elevations have
decoupled, thus have seen temperatures falling into the
mid/lower 40s.

Quick warm up today with widespread upper 60s to mid/upper 70s.
Bumped temperatures above NBM guidance by a couple of degrees as
actual afternoon highs seem to be running on the warmer side of
guidance. Winds will be breezy at times from the southwest.

Lows again tonight expected to be in the mid/lower 40s in the
lower elevations and valleys. Ridgetops stay warmer with
continued mixing.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM EDT Wednesday...

Key Point:

 - Dry with above normal temperatures.

A shortwave trof will approach the region Thursday, bringing high
clouds into the area. Despite the increase in clouds, southerly flow
will help temperatures warm into the upper 60s to lower 70s across
the mountains and mid 70s in the foothills and Piedmont. This wave
will pass over the area in the evening and may bring some spotty
light rain showers and/or sprinkle to the mountains.

Heights aloft increase behind the wave Friday, but southeasterly
flow will help keep temperatures a little cooler than Thursday.
Highs on Friday will range from the low to mid 60s west of the Blue
Ridge to upper 60s to lower 70s east. Regardless, temperatures will
still run 10F above normal. Also with a southeasterly flow, clouds
will form and mainly hang along the Blue Ridge into Friday night. If
enough moisture and upslope flow is available, light rain/drizzle is
possible.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 220 AM EDT Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Warmer than normal trend continues into the weekend.
2. Heavy rain showers expected this weekend.

An occluded low over the Great Lakes will track north into Canada
Saturday. Meanwhile, ahead of a cold front, a shortwave will track
from MS/AL into TN/KY. The track of this wave is further west than
yesterday 00Z models, which has affected the timing of showers over
the forecast area. Scattered showers are possible Saturday
afternoon, then prefrontal moderate to heavy showers enter the
mountains in the evening. The cold front will then move these
showers east of the Blue Ridge Sunday, exiting the Piedmont by
sunset. There is a chance the front may stall over the
Piedmont/Coastal Piedmont Sunday night into Monday as a surface low
forms along the boundary in the Carolinas. Rainfall amounts of 1 to
2 inches are possible this weekend. High pressure will build over
the region behind the front and should keep the area dry into the
middle of next week.

Warmer than normal temperatures are expected this weekend, then
returning to normal levels behind the front on Monday. Temperatures
will moderate warmer Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Wednesday...

VFR expected for the valid 24 hour TAF period. Clear skies and
dry conditions expected.

Southwest winds will be light through this morning, with a few
gusts to 15kts possible this afternoon. Winds will become light
again after sunset this evening.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Conditions will remain VFR into Thursday, though clouds
increase in association with a backdoor front that may come into
the area from the northeast. The front may linger into Friday
with potential for an MVFR cloud layer. Another system will
cross the area over the weekend, with showers/few storms and
sub-VFR cigs/vsbys possible.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 230 AM EDT Wednesday...

Warm spring-like temperatures are expected this week and little
or no rain is forecast until next weekend. This will provide
opportunities for burning operations...but pay special
attention to forecast minimum humidity and wind direction.

Today will be sunny and warmer with winds becoming
southwesterly...the humidity bottoming out in the 20 to 30
percent range.

Aside from the really low afternoon Rh, the wind speeds are
forecast under critical thresholds for any headlines. With potential
for Rh to fall under 25% a regional variance will most likely be required
for burns during the mid-late afternoons...through Thursday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...BMG
FIRE WEATHER...BMG