619
FXUS61 KRNK 112357
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
757 PM EDT Fri Jul 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
The weather pattern will generally remain unchanged through the
weekend. With warm and moist airMASS lingering across the
region, expect isolated to scattered shower and thunderstorms
each afternoon and evening. During the overnight hours, fog and
low clouds will be possible, especially for river valleys and
areas that saw rain the previous day. Temperatures across the
area will generally run around or just above normal values for
this time of year.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 745 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Warm and muggy conditions expected tonight, with areas of
fog.

2) Coverage of thunderstorms increases for Saturday, with
locally heavy downpours but a low severe threat.

Radar indicates widely scattered showers and thunderstorms,
mainly across the mountains this evening. While a few will
linger for a couple more hours, these will gradually fade before
midnight, leaving a mixture of scattered mid and high clouds.
Warm and muggy conditions overnight will support the development
of patchy fog, though possibly not as widespread as last night
given a day of strong heating and minimal coverage of rainfall
to help dry the soils somewhat. River valley fog across the
mountains remains likely however.

Saturday, upper support remains limited til late afternoon, with
models bringing an upper shortwave into northeast TN. This may
bring a better chance over far southwest VA into the NC
mountains by late afternoon with scattered convection east.
Again, severe parameters are limited but not zero. Localized
flooding remains a concern due to slow storm movement.

Temperatures for Saturday will range from around 90 east to the
lower 80s west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening showers/storms.
2. Isolated local heavy rain/flooding remains a concern.
3. Above normal temperatures.

A look at the 11 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday night a trough extending southwest
from the western Great Lakes to the Central Plains states. This
trough is flanked by high pressure over both SW and SE CONUS.
For Sunday/Sunday night, the trough is expected to shift
eastward a bit, but concurrently become less amplified. On
Monday/Monday night, the trough continues shifting east.
However, it is expected to become absorbed within a broader
longwave trough pattern which will cover most of central Canada.
The high pressure ridge is expected to continue to cover most
of CONUS sou
At the surface, for Saturday night, a cold front will extend
south across the western Great Lakes and curve into Central
Plains states. A weak area of low pressure will be across
eastern parts of VA/NC/SC. A ridge of high pressure will be
across the Gulf Coast states and extend to off the east coast of
FL. For Sunday/Sunday night, the cold front will advance closer
to our region, reaching the Ohio Valley by the evening hours.
The weak area of low pressure over eastern VA/NC/SC will hold
fast. For Monday/Monday night, the cold front reaches and
interacts with the weak area of low pressure over eastern
VA/NC/SC.

A look at the 11 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures across the area are expected to
range from +19C to +20C on Sunday and Monday.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast.
Little change is expected in our overall weather pattern. With
the center of high pressure to our south and southeast, anti-
cyclonic flow will help keep advective plenty of Gulf moisture
into our region. With a a weak low pressure hugging the east
coast, and a front approaching and then arriving from the
northwest, showers/storms will continue to be a daily occurrence
across the area. Most of these will occur during the
afternoon/evening. Coverage should be the most organized on
Monday with the arrival of the cold front. There will be daily
concerns for localized heavy rain that could lead to flooding,
especially in areas where multiple showers/storms cross the same
area in a short period of time. Temperatures will continue in
the above normal range.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is high.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
s of 1215 PM EDT Friday...

Key Points:

1. Continuation of daily chances of mainly afternoon/evening
showers/storms.
2. Above normal temperatures.
3. Heat Index values may reach 100F for eastern sections Thurs/Fri.

A look a the 11 Jul 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night a longwave trough over
much of central Canada. Within this feature will exist some
weaker shortwave troughs moving within the broader flow. One is
expected to be over the Canadian Maritimes and another over
Manitoba southwest into MT. A broad region of high pressure will
continue across at least the southern half of CONUS. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night, the broad longwave trough over
central Canada is expected to make progress south, reaching the
northern third of the US. The longwave trough axis is expected
to be over the Upper Mississippi River Valley region by
Wednesday evening. For Thursday/Thursday night, little change is
expected in the overall synoptic pattern. At best the longwave
trough axis shifts to over the western Great Lakes region. A
broad area of high pressure remains over southern CONUS. On
Friday, there may be a small retreat north of the longwave
trough as its axis shifts to over the Quebec/Ontario border.
Another trough is expected to be approaching the US Pacific NW.

At the surface, through this portion of the forecast, a center
of high pressure is expected to remain nearly stationary over
the western Atlantic, off the coast of the mid-Atlantic and SE
US region. The cyclonic flow around this high will help advect
weak disturbance north into our region from off the Gulf of
America. By Friday, a more robust area of low pressure and its
associated cold front are expected to be progressing through the
mid to upper Mississippi River Valley.

A look at the 11 Jul 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness
data shows 850mb temperatures are expected to range from +19C to
+20C through Thursday. On Friday values are forecast to dip
slightly to +18C to +19C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The
pattern of moist anti-cylonic flow across our region will
continue through the remainder of the work week. Combined with
daytime heating our forecast does not change a lot compared to
the first half of the week. Additional afternoon/evening
showers/storms are again expected each day. Tuesday may have the
least activity compared to the other three days, with Friday
potentially having the greatest coverage as the cold front draws
closer. Temperatures will continue to be above normal. The
combination of above normal temperatures and humidity levels may
allow for Heat Index values to reach 100F across far eastern
sections of the region on Thursday and Friday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate to high.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 750 PM EDT Friday...

Radar indicates a few storms this evening, none of which are
expected to impact TAF sites. Storms will fade by midnight.

Overnight, fog will again be an issue, especially at LWB and BCB
due to LIFR visibilities developing during the 06Z to 08Z
timeframe. MVFR to IFR visibilities are expected elsewhere,
though coverage not as widespread as last night given a mostly
dry day. As usual, fog/low clouds will diminish to VFR by
13Z-14Z given strong heating.

Storms will develop along the mountain ridges during the 18Z to
20Z timeframe. Expect increased coverage given the passage of an
overhead disturbance during late afternoon into Saturday
evening. Enough confidence in the coverage of storms to make
mention in TAFs.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

The weather pattern will change very little through early next
week, remaining conducive for isolated to scattered afternoon &
evening storms, with higher coverage on some days more than
others. Outside of storms, expect VFR conditions but with the
potential for locally dense fog and MVFR/IFR stratus developing
overnight, especially for locations that received significant
rainfall during the evening prior.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB/WP
NEAR TERM...NF/WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...NF/WP