Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA

Home |  Current Version |  Previous Version |  Text Only |  Print | Product List |  Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29
436
FXUS61 KRNK 130807
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
407 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system heads off the mid-Atlantic coast today,
then out to sea Tuesday. A dry front then pushes across midweek
with cooler temperatures behind it. High pressure controls our
weather for the late week into Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 320 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Gradually scattering of clouds today with some gusty winds.

There could be a few pockets of drizzle lingering across
portions of the area early this morning, conditions should
largely be dry with mostly cloudy skies. Despite a vort lobe
flirting with the northern/eastern CWA today from an upper low,
conditions should remain dry and most of the moisture should
remain east of the area. Cloud coverage should gradually scatter
by mid morning into the afternoon and some enhanced gradient
winds look to gust out of the NE to NW. The piece of energy
continues to push southward and merges with the other coastal
low and advects further eastward off the mid- Atlantic coast by
this evening into tonight, allowing for subsidence and dry
ridging to take over.

Temps rebound today mainly getting into the mid to upper 60s
for the mountains and low to mid 70s for the Piedmont.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 235 AM EDT MONDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Dry quiet period of weather

2) Strong diurnal swing on Thursday leading to a chilly night

An Atlantic coastal low exits to the east as mid-level ridging
expands to cover the Mid-Atlantic out of the deep south. This
ridging will suppress any cloud formation and encourage a dry,
slightly above normal temperature profile. Late on Wednesday a front
will cross the area with no fanfare (precipitation) as a result of
the dry environment. It will increase winds so that Wednesday
afternoon and overnight is a breezy environment. Wind gusts could
reach 20 MPH in the mountains.

Early Thursday morning could have some patchy frost in high
elevation valleys, however, the breezy conditions could act to limit
radiative cooling. Most areas will still remain in the 40s. Daytime
highs will range from the mid-60s to mid-70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT MONDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Frost possible in mountains Friday morning

2) Rain to return with another cold front this weekend

Both  surface high pressure and a ridge will maintain clear skies in
the region. In the wake of a cold front late Wednesday, more
stagnant high pressure will take hold of the weather conditions. A
dry, clear, slow moving atmosphere will allow strong radiative
cooling in the coolest air of the week overnight Thursday into
Friday morning. The coldest temperatures of the week will reach into
the mid to low 30s west of the Blue Ridge, likely causing frost in
those areas.

Temperatures will rebound quickly, taking highs well above normal by
Saturday. A cold front is progged to enter the area sometime on
Sunday, bringing the next round of precipitation. Impacts and the
length of this event are unclear at this point in the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly MVFR/IFR cigs across the sites this morning that should
gradually lift and scatter today allowing for VFR conditions by
mid-morning into afternoon. Winds increase out of the NE to NW
today 9-12 kts with gusts 15-20 kts, then some decreasing
magnitudes this evening. There is the potential for some lower
cigs again for some of the mountain sites later tonight into
Tuesday morning.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Aviation pattern looks favorable through Friday, outside of any fog
at valley airports like LWB in the late night/early morning time
frame. High pressure will build into the area and persist through
the week. A northerly wind will be elevated Tuesday into Wednesday,
with gusts of near 20 knots possible at times. Winds reduce for
the late week with quiet weather lasting into the weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB/WP
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...AB/JCB