283
FXUS61 KRNK 060714
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
314 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical Storm Chantal was moving onshore in South Carolina
this morning, and will trigger showers and thunderstorms toward
the Blue Ridge and Piedmont by this afternoon. Rain showers
with embedded thunderstorms will continue into Monday. Remaining
high moisture content along with a front to the north will keep
shower and thunderstorm chances around through the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Increasing clouds and showers/isolated storms by this
afternoon from the outer bands of Chantal.

2) A Flood Watch has been issued for parts of the VA/NC
Piedmonts beginning this afternoon.

Tropical Storm Chantal was in the process of making landfall
early this morning. As the system moves inland, it will spread
moderate to heavy rain into the Carolinas and eventually eastern
VA. A few outer rainbands and isolated embedded storms will begin
to impact areas east of the Blue Ridge by mid/late afternoon
today and will continue through Monday morning, as Chantal
wobbles slowly inland and then to the northeast. Rain chances
increase for the entire area as increasing moisture and forcing
for ascent leads to scattered showers and thunderstorms, with
greater coverage east of the Blue Ridge by this evening. Not
expecting anything severe outside of a flooding threat. Winds
should stay below 20 mph.

While the heaviest rain/storm potential stays south and east of
our area, Ensemble NAEFS tools show anomalously high PWATs of
2.2-2.3 inches nudging in from the south. Between 1 and 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts are expected through
Monday morning, especially over parts of the VA and NC
piedmonts. Rockingham and Caswell Counties in NC and Halifax
County in VA have been placed in a Flood Watch this afternoon
through Monday morning, based on 50% confidence for the
occurrence of urban, small stream, flash, and/or river
flooding. South Boston would be the most likely site for river
rises, but currently flooding is not forecast. The system will
be a post- tropical depression by Monday morning.

Besides the rain, the entire area will see overcast skies, with
low stratus developing tonight into Monday morning at least east
of the Blue Ridge. Fog will also be an issue in the late night
and morning hours. Expect highs today in the low to mid 80s,
with overnight lows warm again tomorrow night, in the 60s and
70s.

Confidence is high for PoPs, temperatures, and winds, but lower
for flooding potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT SUNDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Tropical Storm Chantal will bring higher humidity as well as rain
and storm chances.

2) Mid-week stationary boundary will continue storm chances through
the week.


Tropical Storm Chantal is forecast to move onshore sometime Sunday
morning, and make a turn or the northeast in the Carolinas. The vast
majority of direct impacts from Chantal will remain to our south and
east, but it will pass close enough that we will experience an
influx of tropical moisture, and possibly one of the outer bands.

Monday will be the tail end of Chantal`s onshore expedition as it
will be moving roughly east or ENE from the Coastal plain of NC to
the Chesapeake region of VA. We will have some light winds that are
generally easterly, but dont expect big gusts to affect southwestern
VA or the northern Piedmont. Rain on Monday will likely be much
lighter than Sunday. 24 hour QPF for Monday will be under 0.5", but
that will be on top of the higher amounts received Sunday. This
could extend any hydro hazards that crop up, especially in the
Piedmont of NC and Southside VA where the heaviest rain is expected.

For Tuesday, a frontal boundary will sink south out of the OH valley
and perhaps as far south as central VA, before retreating back north
laying zonally near the WV panhandle through to the Delmarva by
Wednesday. Southwesterly flow and already existent tropical moisture
from Chantal`s track will leave abnormally high PWATs over our
forecast area. In the vicinity of a frontal boundary, where it looks
like a series of progressive waves of energy will pass through the
week, this high level of moisture will result in diurnal showers and
storms both Tuesday and Wednesday. The southern Blue Ridge will have
the highest PoPs, as orographics will enhance convective forcing at
the surface.

Temperatures will be above normal, in the mid to upper 80s west of
the Blue Ridge, and into the low 90s east. Even with the high
dewpoints expected in the low to mid 70s in the Piedmont, this won`t
quite make things hot enough to require any heat headlines.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
...As of 300 AM EDT SUNDAY...

Key Messages:

1) Showers continue off and on next week

A stationary boundary will be settled somewhere in the Mid-Atlantic
for the majority of this forecast period. The atmospheric
environment will undergo little change, and as such, much of the
description of diurnal showers and storms from the short term
portion of the discussion will apply here as well. The daily
location of the stationary boundary may alter day to day as it
responds to approaching waves of energy, as well as the
intensification or weakening of the Bermuda high pushing on us from
the southeast. But, more or less, diurnal showers and storms will
spring up throughout the forecast area. Temperatures will generally
be  just above normal with the consistent advection of tropical
moisture and warmth.




&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

LWB will have dense fog this morning, otherwise expect VFR
everywhere through about 20Z except for DAN, which will become
MVFR earlier. Expect increasing mid and high clouds, with
low level moisture/stratus arriving in late this afternoon and
evening east of the Blue Ridge. Showers and TSRA are expected to
be in the vicinity for all but BLF this afternoon and evening.
Lighter showers possible through about 04-12Z, with dense fog
and IFR/LIFR stratus developing again after 07/06Z. Winds will
be mainly easterly below 10 kts with gusts to 15 kts or so late
this afternoon.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Moisture from the tropical storm is expected to remain in the
region through the next few days. Dense fog/stratus will be in
the area through at least mid morning Monday, before lifting to
MVFR/VFR during the day. Will likely see additional restrictions
overnight into Tuesday morning in fog and low stratus.

The forecast area then transitions back into a typical
summertime weather pattern with daily chance of showers/storms
during the peak heating hours each day. Morning fog possible
each day, especially at LWB and BCB.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

Tropical Storm Chantal was in the process of making landfall
early this morning. As the system moves inland, it will spread
moderate to heavy rain into the Carolinas and eventually eastern
VA. A few outer rainbands and isolated embedded storms will begin
to impact areas east of the Blue Ridge by mid/late afternoon
today and will continue through Monday morning, as Chantal
wobbles slowly inland and then to the northeast.

While the heaviest rain/storm potential stays south and east of
our area, Ensemble NAEFS tools show anomalously high PWATs of
2.2-2.3 inches nudging in from the south. Between 1 and 2
inches of rain with locally higher amounts are expected through
Monday morning, especially over parts of the VA and NC
piedmonts. Rockingham and Caswell Counties in NC and Halifax
County in VA have been placed in a Flood Watch this afternoon
through Monday morning, based on 50% confidence for the
occurrence of urban, small stream, flash, and/or river
flooding. South Boston would be the most likely site for river
rises, but currently flooding is not forecast. The system will
be a post- tropical depression by Monday morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for VAZ058.
NC...Flood Watch from 1 PM EDT this afternoon through Monday
     morning for NCZ004>006.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM/SH
HYDROLOGY...SH