885
FXUS61 KRNK 220706
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
206 AM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will move east across the area today, reaching the east
coast this evening. High pressure builds in Sunday into Monday. Another
larger system moves through the area during the middle of next
week, with a big cooldown expected for Thanksgiving and beyond.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 155 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Dense fog this morning in the NC foothills/piedmont.

2) Showers move out by this afternoon.

Fog has been dense across the NC foothills/Piedmont early this
morning. Forecast soundings/models indicate that areas of dense
fog will be around through the dawn hours, before mixing behind
a front clears it out. Elsewhere, expect showers at times ahead
of front, with best coverage in the mountains. Should see
clearing skies this afternoon as winds pick up out of the west,
while the western slopes remain cloudier. As we head into Sat
evening, lower clouds look to form/move in over the Piedmont as
well as high pressure gets wedged in from the north, though
doesn`t look like a strong wedge, but still plenty of low level
moisture is available.

With sunshine returning and downsloping impacts, highs today
should be in the lower to mid 70s across southside Va into NC.
Cannot rule out some near record highs at DAN, as 76 is the
record set in 1984, and forecast is for 75. Elsewhere, temps
will warm into the 60s since we are starting out mild this
morning, except 50s in the higher elevations of WV.

Should be cooler tonight, despite the cloud cover with lower to
mid 40s for most of the area, and some upper 30s across the
Alleghany Highlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 148 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) A chance of precipitation by Tuesday ahead of cold front.

2) Warming trend early next week.

Residual winds will calm down and become quiet as the center of a
surface high pressure system moves eastward, through the Mid-
Atlantic, and into the Atlantic Ocean early next week. Following its
passage, a cold front from a mid-western low pressure system will
begin its approach. While this front is currently not expected to
arrive during this part of the forecast period, a disturbance ahead
of it may bring a chance of showers for the region by Tuesday. Winds
will shift southwesterly (particularly windy at 850mb) and allow
warm and moist air to enter the region. Dew points will increase
into the 40s and 50s, which would be considerably high for this time
of year. Low temperatures will also uptick into the 30s and then 40s
as the week progresses and highs will be in the 50s and 60s. While
it is too early to know how much rain will fall before the frontal
system arrives, the wind direction suggests upslope based
precipitation for the mountains of North Carolina and southwest
Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 152 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Showers possible day before Thanksgiving.

2) Colder and drier air moves in after cold front passage.

Rain chances pickup regionwide as a cold front moves through by the
middle of next week. Currently, most of the rain is expected to be
over by Thanksgiving Day morning. Winds, however, will reach their
peak on Thanksgiving Day as a pressure gradient builds up over the
Mid-Atlantic and cooler and drier air moves in. Wind gust magnitudes
will be determined by how perpendicular their direction is relative
to the mountains. The upper level trough associated with this system
will be to our north, but will pass another wave of energy and give
the West Virginia counties another chance of precipitation Saturday
morning. Precipitation chances are already low for this part of the
forecast as the air will be very dry and dew points will drop back
into the teens and 20s. Even so, any precipitation that develops
Saturday morning will likely be snow due to the new cold air mass.
Early morning temperatures for the latter half of next week may be
in the 20s and 30s and highs may be in the 40s and 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1220 AM EST Saturday...

Keeping a more pessimistic forecast per moisture-laden airmass
with showers in place ahead of a front this morning. Despite
some areas being VFR, think majority of the time, cigs and at
times vsbys will be sub-VFR, and as low as IFR especially in the
mountains and at DAN. During the day the front moves across but
cigs may have a hard time improving at BLF/LWB and maybe BCB,
but should see VFR east of the mountains though models keep some
cloudiness around, so beyond 15z, confidence in the ceilings and
bkn/sct is lower in the Piedmont.

Indications are that lower cigs will return after sunset.

West winds behind the front may gust 15-20kts at BCB/BLF/LWB
today.


.Extended Aviation Outlook...

Higher confidence Sunday into Monday of VFR, then next system
arrives Tue-Wed with rain chances and sub-VFR conditions.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...Dense Fog Advisory until 8 AM EST this morning for NCZ003>006-
     019-020.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/VFJ/WP