926
FXUS61 KRNK 011728
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1228 PM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Ohio Valley today, and pushes
east northeast into the Northeast by this evening. All the
while, low pressure develops along the front off the Gulf
Coast. This system will advance into our area tonight through Tuesday
with another round of wintry weather changing to rain. High
pressure returns Tuesday night, with brief upslope snow showers
possible across SE West Virginia.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

Key Messages:

1) New Winter Weather Advisory Goes into Affect tonight.

2) More significant Freezing Rain is expected for locations
   along and west of the Blue Ridge tonight into Tuesday
   morning.

Today will be a quick transition between two systems as high
pressure skirts quickly north of the region through the Ohio
valley and into the Northeast by this evening. As this happens
very dry air will advect into the region from the northwest and
north as the High pressure moves east. This dry air will
eventually help cool the region as precipitation from the
southeast moves into the area late Monday evening. Much of the
precipitation will likely evaporate as it falls early on;
however, as the dry air is eventually worked over, the
atmosphere should cool down to below freezing through much of
the boundary layer from 850mb to the surface across Mountain
locations. Some areas overnight across the Alleghany highlands
may initially start as light snow showers before a quick
transition to freezing rain develops as a 45 knot southwesterly
jet quickly develops a plus 2-3 degree Celsius warm nose around
the 800-700mb level. This warm nose and surface temperatures
will continue to rise through the early morning hours, with rain
taking over as the dominant precipitation across the region
during the mid morning hours on Tuesday.

Overall, before the transition to all rain occurs, areas along
and west of the Blue Ridge are forecast to see totals ranging
from 0.10" to 0.25" of freezing rain, with the Alleghany
highlands and Greenbrier river valley potentially seeing up to
half an inch of snow prior to a freezing rain transition.

Temperatures today generally look to climb into the low to mid
40s across the region, with lows falling into the upper 20s to
low 30s by the early evening as freezing rain starts across the
region. Temperatures will only rise throughout the overnight
hours as warm air advection from the southeast slowly brings
temperatures above freezing through the mid morning hours on
Tuesday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EST Monday...

As of 1210 PM EST Monday

Key Message:

1) Mainly dry with colder than normal temps.

Keeping this part of the forecast dry, though a front does push
across Thursday, moisture is limited as it arrives from the
west/northwest. Cloud cover could linger into Wed morning over the
mountains behind departing Tuesday system. Not out of the question
to have some freezing drizzle along those western slopes of WV
Tuesday evening.

Highs will continue to run 5 to 15 degrees below normal while lows
will be just below normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1217 PM EST Monday

Key Messages:

1) Trend is for less impact from next system Friday into Saturday
but not totally dry.

2) Low confidence for the weekend into Monday forecast but leaning
dry.

Trend in the models/ensembles is to have a stronger northern stream
trough that shunts the southern stream system further south. This in
turn will keep better precip chances over the southeast U.S. Still
some models/ensembles have precip chances into our area, so cannot
discount that. Leaned toward a blend of the models, which still
looks like snow changing to rain scenario Friday, then back to snow
Friday night over portions of the area. Wedge may allow for some
freezing precip as well, but confidence is low on ice, based on
track of the low from the Gulf Coast to off the SC/NC coast. Models
keep this low weak until it gets well east of Virginia. Could see
some deformation zone/upper enhanced precip into Saturday, with
precip mainly changing back to rain, except some mix in the
mountains.

Beyond Saturday, though another quick moving upper system/front
pushes across Sunday with low chance pops.

Confidence remains low on the overall wintry setup this weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Monday...

VFR to MVFR restrictions this morning as west/northwest winds
are leading to a shallow upslope cloud deck across SE West
Virginia and into portions of southwest Virginia. This has led
to off and on MVFR restrictions at BCB, and more continuous MVFR
restrictions at BLF and LWB. These restrictions look to clear
by the mid morning hours as high pressure continues to work its
way across the region. Restrictions look to completely lift
during the 12-14 UTC timeframe. VFR conditions look to prevail
through much of the TAF period, with some freezing rain just
starting to reach BLF and BCB by the 06 UTC timeframe on
Tuesday. This freezing rain/rain along with more widespread
MVFR CIGs looks to spread north and east to all remaining
terminals. As the overnight hours progress into the early
morning hours, MVFR restrictions will eventually decrease to IFR
and LIFR restrictions at nearly all terminals through the
remainder of the taf period. Some LLWS also can`t be ruled out
at BLF towards the 09-12 utc timeframe on Tuesday.


Winds look to transition from west/northwest early today to
northerly and eventually southeasterly by this evening.
Overall, sustained winds should remain around 5-10 knots
throughout the day, with downslope wind gusts increasing to
15-20 knots at BLF once winds turn out of the southeast this
evening. All other terminals look to remain in the 5-10 knot
gust range through the taf period.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Return to VFR for most by Wednesday-Thursday, slower at BLF
Wed. Friday yet another storm system looks to bring wintry
weather and poor flying weather to the region.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for VAZ007-009>020-022>024-032>035.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for NCZ001>003-018-019.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 7 PM this evening to noon EST
     Tuesday for WVZ042>044-507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...CG/EB
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...EB/WP