489
FXUS61 KRNK 071052
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
652 AM EDT Sat Jun 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A stalling frontal boundary and upper disturbances will bring
daily rain and thunderstorm chances for much of the area through
at least Tuesday before a stronger cold front passes through
the area Tuesday. This cold front is expected to be followed by
surface high pressure, which should return dry weather to the
region through the end of the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Rounds of showers and thunderstorms with severe threat today.

Several impulses look to traverse eastward across the area along the
mostly zonal flow aloft. The first looks to be impinging upon the
western CWA near sunrise this morning then lose coverage toward the
east by midday. Afternoon redevelopment is possible though coverage
may not be as widespread as the morning wave. There looks to be a
period of destabilization and even parts of the Piedmont could get
SBCAPE up near 2000 J/kg along with decently steep low level lapse
rates. This in combination with deep layer bulk shear near 30
kts could lead to some strong to severe development with
damaging wind as the main threat. SPC continues to have the
southern tier of the CWA in a Slight Risk with a Marginal
extending across the majority of the rest of the area. PWATs
look to be rather high near 1.75 inches so any training of cells
could lead to some localized flooding with increased
hydrometeor loading.

By late this evening into the overnight another upper disturbance is
progged to bring another round of widespread showers and possible
embedded thunderstorms, though a more stabilized environment may
inhibit convective intensities.

Temps look to be above normal this afternoon with much of the
mountains in the mid to upper 70s and the Piedmont possibly getting
into the mid 80s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Afternoon storms will be possible each day.

2) Near to slightly above normal temperatures continue through the
period.

A low pressure system in the Great Plains will move east and into
the Ohio River Valley on Sunday. With support from an upper level
trough, showers and storms will develop and move into the Mid-
Atlantic Region Sunday afternoon. Most areas should see some rain,
with the best chances west of the Blue Ridge initially then into the
Northern Piedmont. Daytime heating will aid in the development of
storms, and paired with dewpoints in the 60s will allow for some
storms to be severe, with our entire area in a Marginal Risk, with a
Slight Risk for the eastern Piedmont. Damaging winds will be the
main threat, though large hail will also be possible. An isolated
tornado cannot be ruled out for the far eastern Piedmont. The front
moves through Sunday evening, clearing out the storms, but stalls to
the east. There will then be a brief lull in rainfall in our area
through late Monday as we will be between two frontal systems.

By Monday evening, a longwave upper-level trough will swing down
into the Great Lakes Region, with a strong cold front draped down
through the Ohio Valley. Southwesterly winds will again keep warm,
moist air across the Mid-Atlantic Region, with diurnal heating
keeping storm chances possible for late Tuesday. The best chances
for rain will be in the eastern Piedmont near the stalled frontal
boundary.

Total precipitation for the period will be relatively light, around
0.25" near the NC/VA border, increasing to around 0.50" for the
northern Piedmont. Temperatures will be near to slightly above
normal through early next week, with highs in the 70s/80s. Monday
will be the warmest day with upper 80s in the Piedmont. Lows will be
consistent each morning, in the 50s/60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 230 AM EDT Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Drier and quieter weather returns through Friday when the next
system moves in.

2) Above normal temperatures continue through the end of the week.

The main cold front and upper-level trough push through Tuesday
night, with showers and storms tapering off through the night. By
Wednesday morning, high pressure builds in from the west, keeping
dry conditions in place through Friday. South of the NC/VA line,
rain chances slightly increase Thursday due to the frontal boundary
stalling across the Carolinas. PoPs remain low there, around 20%. By
late Friday, the stalled front to the south begins to move back
north as a warm front, bringing showers and storms back into the
area through the end of the period and into next weekend.

Highs during the week will be in the 70s/80s, increasing to mostly
80s by the end of the week. Lows will mainly be in the 50s,
increasing into the low 60s by late week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 650 AM EDT Saturday...

This morning cigs should lower to LIFR for KBLF and KLWB with
MVFR a bit farther eastward though KDAN and KLYH may stay VFR.
Some reduced VSBYs could occur with fog as well. There could be
several rounds of precip today (first one here at the start of
the fcst period this morning spreading eastward) including
lower cigs and reduced VSBYs with a possible lull late afternoon
into evening for some sites. Greatest TS chance should mainly
be in the daytime period. Winds generally west to NW under 10
kts today (could have gusts with any TSRA) and light to calm in
the overnight periods.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Daily chances of morning rain showers from lingering
thunderstorm activity pushing into the area combined with
daily chances for afternoon showers and thunderstorms will lead
to high chances for sub-VFR conditions on Sunday, Monday and
Tuesday before a much stronger cold front pushes into the area
and high pressure returns by Wednesday. This will bring the
return of VFR conditions at nearly all terminals. With moisture
lingering in the area through the end of the weekend and into
the beginning of the work week, valley fog and low CIGs look
possible as well each morning.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...AB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...AB/SH