169
FXUS61 KRNK 010700
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
300 AM EDT Mon Jul 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure builds in from the Great Lakes today, bringing less
humid air. Dry weather is expected to persist through Tuesday.
Temperatures start to heat up again by the 4th of July, along
with a chance for storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 115 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1) Humidity lowers today.

Getting a few light returns on radar over the piedmont and
portions of southwest VA, along the last vestiges of the front
and higher humidity. Anticipate for lower humidity to slide in
from the northwest through the morning with clearing skies. Fog
may be an issue across portions of southside VA into the NC
piedmont and across the river valleys in the mountains, but
latest trends keep it isolated/patchy.

High pressure will bring a change in airmass today. A relief for
most from the high dewpoints. Dewpoints are expected to fall at
least 20 degrees, with some 40s possible by mid to late
afternoon. Temperatures will also come down...a pleasant way to
start the first day of July, with mainly sunny skies. Highs will
will be close to or about 5 degrees below normal, with mid to
upper 70s/80 in the mountains, to lower to mid 80s east.

Tonight, a few deeper valley locations like Burkes Garden and
Lewisburg, WV could sneak into the 40s, but most Will have 50s.
May be able give that A/C a rest.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM EDT Monday...

Key Message:

1: Heat ramps up heading towards Independence Day

Surface high pressure will move off the Mid Atlantic coast Tuesday
into Wednesday. Meanwhile, a subtropical ridge centered over the
southern Mississippi Valley will drift eastward along the Gulf
States. The subtropical ridge will bring heat and humidity into the
region while the surface ridge adds an extra round of moisture
(southeast flow) from the Atlantic. Near normal temperatures
expected on Tuesday, then above normal on Wednesday. On Wednesday,
temperatures should peak in the 80s across the mountains and lower
90s in the foothills and piedmont. With dewpoints in the low to mid
60s along with light winds, heat index values will be around 3F-5F
warmer than the actual temperature. No precipitation is excepted
Tuesday or Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1: Hot and Humid Independence Day

2: Unsettled weather next weekend

The subtropical ridge will continue to move east across the Gulf
States Thursday (Independence Day). As the center of this ridge
moves closer to the area, temperatures and humidity will increase.
Afternoon high temperatures for the 4th of July will range from the
mid 80s to lower 90s across the mountains and mid to upper 90s in
the foothills and piedmont. Dew points will range from the upper 60s
to lower 70s, creating heat index values 4F to 8F warmer than the
actual temperature. Heating index values in the foothills and
piedmont will be in the triple digits for a few hours in the
afternoon. A disturbance tracking on the northern edge of this ridge
could bring showers and thunderstorms to the area Thursday afternoon
and evening. However, models have the track of this disturbance
moving across northern Virginia with convection activity mainly
north of Highway 460.

The subtropical ridge will eventually move off the coast over the
weekend. Until this happens, hot and humid conditions will remain in
the area. A cold front may approach the area this weekend, but looks
to stall and/or wash-out over the piedmont on Sunday. This boundary
will help increase the chances for showers and thunderstorms into
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM EDT Monday...

Mainly VFR expected through the period, though some MVFR fog
possible at DAN/BLF/LWB and BCB depending on how quickly the dry
air moves in vs temps. For now have tempo 3-5sm.

A wind shift will take place this morning, becoming
northerly...and remaining out of the north or northeast
Monday... generally 10 kts or less. A few gusts 15-20kts are
possible east of the mountains.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate to high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Tuesday-Wednesday appear to be VFR as high pressure moves across
the area. Storm chances increase by Thursday into Friday ahead
of a front so sub-VFR possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...PM/WP