969
FXUS61 KRNK 040500
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
100 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will extend southward from New England across the
Mid-Atlantic, and remain wedged against the eastern face of the
Appalachians for much of the coming workweek, resulting in
windflow from the east to northeast. This pattern will support
cooler-than-average temperatures during this period, as well as
increased rain chances beginning Tuesday, as moist Atlantic air
is drawn across the region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Cool and mainly dry

2) Patchy fog overnight

Maintained some lower clouds and drizzle for the NC mountains,
otherwise looking at mainly cool and dry conditions through the
near term part of the forecast. Evening RNK sounding is
strongly capped underneath 800 mph with light easterly winds.
This easterly wind component will maintain some upslope low
clouds, especially along the southern Blue Ridge southwest of
the VA/NC border. Where it clears overnight, especially across
WV and the highlands of VA, think river valley fog is a district
possibility.

Conditions on Monday will be similar to that of Sunday with
subtle differences. Early Monday morning temperatures will be
cool with lows in the 50s for most of the area. Highs will be a
little warmer, however, with values in the mid-70s to lower
80s. The surface wedge pattern will continue but a trough will
form over the Mississippi River and pass some vorticity bands
through the Mid-Atlantic. Given the dry air and more stable
environment, precipitation initiation from this source is very
low. Otherwise, it may get a little breezy during the afternoon
and evening hours of Monday with gusts between 10-15 mph from
the east.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Keeping highs cooler than normal.

2) Expect increased rain chances.

Model solutions vary somewhat this period with GFS the driest.
Ensemble approach and pattern with high to the north and front over
the southeast/south will lend toward a moistening airmass with east
flow. Will lean toward keeping pops in the chance range, except over
the southern Blue Ridge into the Mountain Empire where better
forcing and upslope by Wednesday should see better coverage of
showers.

Will mainly be wedged in for most of the area so cloud cover will be
more plentiful as we head into Wednesday. This should limit
instability but a few storms are possible. Overall probability of
any hazardous weather (severe/flooding) should be low.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 1250 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Watching low off the southeast coast toward the weekend
interacting with frontal boundary.

2) Not a washout but not dry either while temperatures stay at or
below normal.

Upper pattern becomes rather stagnant with broad ridge over the
southeast with some weakness/troughiness at times over the area,
while high pressure remains situated over the northeast and a front
across the southeast. Some models start to develop a decent low off
the southeast coast by the weekend. At this time ensembles are
keeping it just a sub-tropical/low along a front, but something to
watch. Nonetheless, this system will oscillate here through the
period and provide moisture off the Atlantic. This will keep
showers/few storms chances around through Sunday but not seeing
widespread coverage or a pattern that yet shows it raining all the
time. This could change if coastal system is stronger or if the
front edges further north and west.

With the wedge in place and easterly flow at times, temperatures
will stay at or below normal.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

With high pressure remaining anchored across southeastern
Canada, predominantly VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals through the period with the exception of KLWB. KLWB
will likely see low stratus and fog development over the next
several hours due to radiational cooling and river fog
developing. This will likely lead to MVFR to LIFR restrictions
developing through the late overnight hours and early morning
hours. This low stratus and fog should lift by the mid morning
hours as daytime heating will quickly mix out the aforementioned
fog and low stratus. Easterly flow may continue to lead to
upslope cloud cover developing along the spine of the Blue
Ridge. VFR pilots should use caution when flying in and near the
crest of the Blue Ridge as this may lead to visual obstruction.

Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

In general, expecting VFR conditions the next few days until
later in the week when additional moisture moves back into the
region to revamp precipitation chances.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...NF
NEAR TERM...CG/PM
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...WP
AVIATION...EB/PM