960
FXUS61 KRNK 280658
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
258 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

High pressure will keep us dry and cooler than normal to close
out the workweek. A frontal boundary may bring a few showers
late in the weekend as moisture is drawn back north into the
area.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Cool and dry weather continues today.

Cloud cover early in the morning will eventually lead to
clearing and partly cloudy conditions throughout the day today.
The cloud cover overnight has kept low temperatures somewhat
insulated tonight; however, they will still be well below normal
for this time of the year as clear conditions earlier in the
night allowed temperatures to drop quickly after sunset.
Overall, conditions will remain calm and dry across the area
with high temperatures west of the Blue Ridge expected to be in
the low 70s, and in the upper 70s east of the Blue Ridge.
Temperatures tonight will continue to fall into the 40s and 50s
west of the Blue Ridge, and mid 50s east of the Blue Ridge
tonight.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Isolated rain chances return Saturday, with better chances on
Sunday.

2) Near normal temperatures Friday cool back down for the weekend.

Another quiet weather day is expected on Friday, despite a frontal
boundary moving through the area late in the day. This front will
have no precipitation associated with it, due to very dry air aloft.
High pressure over the western Great Lakes builds in behind the
front, keeping dry air in place and more quiet weather heading into
the weekend. Northerly flow will lower temperatures once again, and
as the center of the high shifts east into the Northeast late on
Saturday, the flow turns easterly. This upslope flow will allow
isolated showers/storms to form in the afternoon hours along the
southern Blue Ridge in the NC mountains.

A similar setup continues on Sunday, as the high tries to wedge in
east of the Appalachians, but remains weak. An inverted trough over
the Tennessee Valley will allow more lift for areas west of the Blue
Ridge. This lift along with increasing moisture and diurnal heating
will be just enough to cause isolated to scattered showers/storms
across the mountains. While the Piedmont will mostly remain dry,
areas west of the Blue Ridge will see higher chances, with PoPs
around 30-40% in the NC/VA mountains.

QPF totals will remain very light, due to any convection that forms
being short-lived and weak. Up to 0.25" is possible in the NC
mountains, with isolated higher amounts possible in any heavier
convection.

Temperatures warm to near normal on Friday, with highs in the 70s to
low 80s ahead of the front. For the weekend, temps cool behind the
front to the 70s area-wide. Lows will be in the 50s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Below normal temperatures persist through midweek.

2) Small rain chances each day west of the Blue Ridge.

Any storms that formed during the late afternoon on Sunday will
quickly dissipate post-sunset Sunday night. High pressure then
begins to wedge down into the area for Monday through the end of the
period. This wedge will continue to keep below normal temperatures,
along with a northerly winds and some cloud cover. The easterly
upslope flow will continue to have showers/storms possible for the
NC/VA mountains each day, though PoPs remain roughly around 20%.
Another upper-level trough will swing down into the area by
Wednesday, which could allow for more widespread coverage of
rainfall that afternoon, but confidence is low this far out as
models do not agree on the coverage of convection or moisture
levels. If model trends continue, this could be the best chance of
widespread rainfall in over 10 days. Overall, while rain chances do
return to areas west of the Blue Ridge, most areas will remain dry
through at least midday Wednesday thanks to the wedge.

Below normal temperatures continue thanks to the aforementioned
wedge, with highs in the 70s area-wide, and a few upper 60s in the
mountains. Overnight lows also remain very consistent, in the 50s.
The highest elevations could dip into the 40s each morning.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM EDT Thursday....

VFR conditions look to prevail at all terminals through the TAF
period, with the exception of LWB where some river valley fog
may lead to some restrictions during the early morning hours
today and Friday morning. Winds today will continue to remain
light at around 5 knots, but are expected to be out of the
west/southwest at all terminals.

Forecast confidence is high, but moderate for fog at KLWB. Due
to equipment issues resulting in no observations during the
overnight hours, AMD NOT SKED will be in the TAF for KLWB until
observations return.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions should continue for all terminals during the
remainder of this week as high pressure stays in control. The
only exceptions may be patchy fog during the early morning hours
across the usual river valley locations such as KLWB. The next
chance of rain may not come until Sunday across the southern
Blue Ridge.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB/VFJ
AVIATION...AS/EB