156
FXUS61 KRNK 181036
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
636 AM EDT Mon Aug 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A front will shift south into North Carolina today, becoming
nearly stationary into Tuesday. Another front arrives Wednesday
and lingers in the region into Thursday, while Hurricane Erin
moves north east of the Atlantic seaboard. A stronger front
passes across the area Saturday night into Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 143 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1. Patchy dense fog this morning

2. Isolated to widely scattered showers/storms this afternoon.

Should see some patchy fog, locally dense in the typical valleys
this morning.

591dm ridge starts to shift east into the Virginias today
pushing a front southward into North Carolina. The wind flow
turns northeast and we will likely have high temperatures a
few degrees cooler than Sunday with more cumulus/stratocumulus
in the afternoon. Keeping low probabilities for showers/storms
today, with model consensus suggesting the mountains will see
isolated/widely scattered coverage, (20-30%). There may enough
moisture convergence shifting into the Piedmont for a few
showers tonight mainly across the central VA Piedmont but only
slight chance.

High temperatures Monday will range from the low to mid 80s
across the mountains to mid to upper 80s in the foothills and
Piedmont.

Drier air looks to stay north of us so lows tonight again will
be in the mid to upper 60s, with patchy fog possible.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 157 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Hurricane Erin not expected to impact the region.

2) Daily rainfall chances return for the area.

By Tuesday morning, a cold front should have passed through and
moved as far south as North Carolina before stalling. High pressure
will sneak in and entrench itself against the mountains for most of
the work week. This high pressure originates from a larger high far
northeast of us but while it moves further east, residual high
pressure will stay put. Meanwhile an upper level trough will form
over New England and drag Hurricane Erin away from the coast. While
Hurricane Erin is not expected to impact the region, its path will
determine our overall wind direction as it passes to our east.
Current model guidance suggests wind flow will be northerly or
northeasterly, though this will likely be noticed more in areas east
of the Blue Ridge.

The stationary front will meander about and may trigger afternoon
thunderstorms for the rest of the week. Precipitation chances
struggle to get above 50% due to the lack of instability from the
high pressure and cloud cover. Even so, the chances of precipitation
are not zero and many of these storms may be upslope based
depending on where the overall winds flow later this week.
Otherwise, conditions will continue to be warm and moist with
highs in mid 70s to lower 80s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 157 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Daily chances of showers and thunderstorms continue.

2) Cold front to arrive early next week to bring cooler and drier
weather.

By this weekend Hurricane Erin will be away from CONUS. A large and
potent upper level low in Canada will drag a long cold front across
the United States and pass it through the Mid-Atlantic early next
week. The air behind the front will be noticeably drier and cooler
with dew points potentially lowering into the 50s and 60s. The
trough will also dip a little south, lower heights, and support cold
air advection through the backing of winds. As the front approaches,
winds will become more southwesterly and there will still be enough
warmth and moisture to continue daily afternoon showers and
thunderstorms. The front`s passage will promote another round of
widespread thunderstorms followed by high pressure which should
put a cap on any additional thunderstorm potential.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 634 AM EDT Monday...

NOTE: No observations are being transmitted from KLWB, so have a
NIL TAF for them.

Keeping VFR for the most part through the period. Fog at BLF/BCB
and any at LWB will lift by 12-14z.

Scattered/broken CU/SC will develop during late morning Monday,
with a few showers and isolated storms developing along the
ridges during mid-afternoon. Activity will remain widely
scattered in coverage and disorganized, with not enough
confidence to make mention in any TAFS.

Winds will turn northeast today behind a front and could see a
few gusts by 22z at LYH to 20kts. Low level moisture with
northeast/east flow increases tonight likely bringing MVFR to
IFR cigs and some MVFR vsbys to the taf sites


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Sub-VFR cigs are likely into Tuesday morning, potentially
lingering into Wednesday along/east of the Blue Ridge.

Isolated to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms will be
possible each each afternoon and evening into Friday. Patchy
fog will redevelop each night, particularly across the mountain
river valleys.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RCS/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...NF/WP