614
FXUS61 KRNK 090805
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
305 AM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves from the Great Lakes to off the mid-Atlantic
coast by Sunday as a front tracks in from the west. This front
crosses our area Sunday night into Monday providing a good
chance for showers. High pressure works by in Tuesday, followed
by another front by Thursday with limited moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 235 AM EST Saturday...

Key Message:

1) Temperatures closer to normal, remaining dry through tonight.

Tighter pressure gradient allowing for a few gusts in the higher
ridges and some around Roanoke to 20 mph this morning. As the high
tracks east, a northeast flow will commence which starts to bring a
gusty wind to the Piedmont of VA after dawn. Overall, as we head
through the day the upper pattern has the axis of the ridge from the
southeast U.S. into the central Appalachians, with some jet induced
cirrus moving across. Anticipate with the surface high to our north
and a northeast to east flow, temperatures to be a little cooler
with highs in the 60s for most. Skies will be mostly sunny with
periods of high clouds as well.

Tonight, high pressure heads offshore of the mid-Atlantic coast to
bring the low level flow around to the southeast. May take some time
to get the moisture to increase, but showers may start to approach
our WV mountains around dawn Sunday. Otherwise, expect increasing
clouds with temperatures dropping this evening before clouds move in
the steadying out overnight with lows in the upper 30s to mid 40s,
milder over toward the upper Clinch Valley.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 242 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Better chance for showers Sunday afternoon into Sunday
night. Rainfall more concentrated over the central Appalachians
into the TN Valley.

2) Dry weather returns by late Monday with temperatures above normal.

A warm front tracks across WV Sunday followed by a cold front
bringing a better chance of showers into the mountains Sunday
afternoon. Models have trended toward best lift and moisture
convergence to stay in a northeast to southwest orientation from
northern VA into the TN Valley putting our WV counties with higher
pops where a half inch or more of rain may occur. Though excessive
rainfall is marginal, not seeing any signs of heavy downpours or
flooding issues with this system, aside from potential culverts
ponding due to leaves and rain.

Southeast portions of our area will still see a chance for showers
as the front passes across late Sunday night into Monday but since
the main low lifts into Quebec the front starts to weaken and mainly
seeing less rainfall amounts but still a tenth of an inch or less.

The upper pattern flow becomes more progressive behind this system
with temperature staying above normal Monday into Tuesday but not as
warm as recent days. Looking at showers pulling out by Monday
afternoon with clearing skies. High pressure over the Great Lakes
starts to ridge in again Tuesday with flow becoming more north to
northeast Tuesday afternoon.

For temperatures Sunday will be the coolest day with clouds and
shower chances keeping highs in 50s in the mountains and portions of
the Piedmont with lower 60s across southside Va/NC Piedmont and far
SW VA. These temperatures are near normal for early November.

Southwest flow as the front pushes across Sunday night will keep
lows in the 50s except a few upper 40s in the mountains.

Monday, as the upper flow flattens, and we see more sunshine with
westerly flow, highs will be in the 60s in the mountains to 70s in
the Piedmont.

Clear to partly cloudy skies Monday night to provide lows in the
40s, maybe some 30s in the mountains. Tuesday with a northerly flow
highs will be about 5 degrees above normal in the 60s.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 255 AM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Mainly dry this period.

2: Temperatures running closer to normal.

High pressure to track from the Great Lakes into New
England/Quebec by Wednesday. Several models are keeping next
system somewhat dry as main energy with the low stays well north
and moisture advection ahead of it is minimal. This pattern does
favor some shower chances for the mountains, but have leaned
drier further east based on latest model/ensemble trends. 5h
heights fall as do 8h temperatures as the trough digs across the
northeast to off the mid-Atlantic coast Thursday. This will keep
our temperatures closer to normal for mid to late week. Lows in
the 30s/40s, highs in the 50s/60s.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1213 AM EST Saturday...

All local terminals will continue to have VFR flight through
Saturday evening.

Winds will turn from the northwest to northeast by morning, then
to southeast by afternoon. Wind speeds will be less than 10
knots through 12z, but gusts 15 to 20kts possible at LYH/DAN
between 12-18z.

Above average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Rain chances return for from west to east on Sunday and continue
through Sunday night, likely reducing flight conditions to MVFR
or below as a front pushes through the area. The front clears
out by midday Monday, with VFR conditions returning for the rest
of the period.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...WP
LONG TERM...VFJ/WP
AVIATION...AMS/WP