Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
Issued by NWS Blacksburg, VA
427 FXUS61 KRNK 111002 AFDRNK Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Blacksburg VA 602 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025 .SYNOPSIS... A low pressure system will tracking along the Atlantic coastline will spread showers into mainly the Piedmont over the weekend. North to northeasterly winds will become gusty later today through Sunday. Drier weather returns by Tuesday, and conditions remain dry through most of next week, with temperatures in the 60s and 70s. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 600 AM EDT Saturday... Key Message: 1) Increasing clouds for all and increasing precipitation chances east of the Blue Ridge by later today and tonight. Today, the southern Appalachians will be caught between low pressure over the Deep South and the compact low pressure system over the eastern Great Lakes. At the surface, high pressure will begin to weaken as a coastal low spins up along the southeastern Atlantic seaboard. It will take a while for moisture to recover, so expect cloudy skies for most of the area today, denser as you move east. Stratiform rain will develop by afternoon and evening, mainly east of the Blue Ridge. Through early Sunday morning, expect QPF amounts between a few hundredths just southeast of Roanoke to closer to a quarter inch towards Danville and South Boston. Most areas west of the Blue Ridge will see nothing but clouds. Clouds and precipitation will limit high temperatures today in the low to mid 60s for the mountains, and the mid to perhaps upper 60s for the Piedmont. Tonight, readings will range from the mid 40s to near 50 for the mountains, and the mid to upper 50s for the Piedmont. Confidence in the near term is high for most parameters but moderate for QPF amounts. If the system stays farther east, the Piedmont will see less precipitation. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 215 AM EDT Saturday... Key Messages: 1) Rain near central Virginia Sunday and Monday 2) Slight warmup begins An area of low pressure will be riding north up the east coast, with its center just offshore. On Sunday it will pass closest to Virginia, likely creating a deformation zone in the Mid- Atlantic. As this system makes use of Atlantic moisture, rain showers will spread inland, potentially reaching the Appalachians. Best chances for rain will be in the Piedmont and Southside of Virginia, lasting from Sunday afternoon into early Monday morning. Rain will taper off from west to east as the low weakens and moves out to sea. Rain totals with this system won`t be extreme, but should be beneficial for the Piedmont. That region could see 0.5-0.75" of rain, and then further west into the NRV and near the Blue Ridge, amounts will generally stay around a tenth or two. Ridging over the southern plains and the Deep South will grow and spread to exert its influence on western VA and NC. After showers dry up Monday, that clear weather will remain as we get further into the workweek. This will also make way for some warming. Temperatures on Tuesday will reach into the upper 60s/low 70s for the majority of the forecast area. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... Key Points: 1) Front to bring chance of precipitation early next week This weekend, a positively-tilted trough will dip into the OH Valley. High pressure will wedge in from the NE, keeping most of the area dry. We may see a few light radar echoes over the southern Blue Ridge, but for now have kept rain chances below 10%. After a warm Saturday, high temperatures drop by Sunday into the 70s areawide Sunday and Monday as a dry backdoor front moves through the region north to south. Overnight lows will be close to normal. Confidence in the long term is moderate. && .AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 230 AM EDT Saturday... In general, expecting mainly VFR conditions across the area today, lower clouds are moving in from the east and will mainly affect Danville today, but move east tonight as rain develops. Another exception...river fog may develop along the New and Greenbrier Rivers vcnty of KBCB and KLWB early this morning. Winds are expected to remain from an northeasterly to easterly direction today, favoring a more northerly direction over the piedmont. Speeds will generally be in the 5 to 10 knot range...gusty during the day. EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK... Rain continues through Sunday, with the greatest chances east of the Blue Ridge, which will bring sub VFR ceilings and visibilities, as a low pressure system moves along the coast, and gusty winds are possible for the weekend and into Monday. Drier weather returns for the start of the next work week, lasting through most of the week. && .RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... VA...None. NC...None. WV...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...AS/SH NEAR TERM...SH SHORT TERM...VFJ LONG TERM...VFJ AVIATION...SH