425
FXUS61 KRNK 181856
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
256 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern, with a warm
southwesterly wind advecting in well above average temperatures
through the weekend. The next chance of rain is not expected until
late Monday, when a frontal boundary moves in. The front stalls to
our south, keeping unsettled weather possible through late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures remain well above average.

2) High pressure keeps dry, but breezy conditions around.

A strong surface high pressure in the Western Atlantic will continue
to ridge across our area, and keep quiet, dry weather in place into
the weekend. The clockwise flow around the high has
southwesterly winds advecting warm air into the Mid-Atlantic,
which will drive temperatures into the upper 70s west of the
Blue Ridge, and into the low 80s across the piedmont this
afternoon. An upper- level ridge over the southeastern US will
continue to keep sinking air over our area, with mostly sunny
skies for today. Winds remain gusty at times, up to 30 mph along
the ridgetops, with 20 mph gusts for the lower elevations.

Overnight, moisture will also begin to advect into the area from the
southwest, as a frontal boundary will move into the Ohio River
Valley but remain off to our northwest, keeping dry weather in place
through Saturday. The flow will keep overnight lows mild, in the
upper 50s. For Saturday, winds remain elevated, but reduce slightly,
with gusts of 15-25 mph. Temperatures rise further, with highs
mainly in the 80s, with a few spots in the piedmont possibly
reaching 90.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

     - Unseasonably warm through Monday

     - Highest confidence of precipitation Monday and Monday night

Starting with an amplified upper pattern and a 593 dm 500 MB ridge
off the South Carolina coast by Sunday morning. The ridge flattens
Monday and Monday night, and at the surface a cold front will cross
the area. Have increased the probability of precipitation over the
mountains Monday night.

Unseasonably warm air remains over the region until the front comes
through on Monday. Maximum temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees
above normal on Sunday, despite increasing cloud cover.  More clouds
and higher surface dew points Sunday night will result mild
overnight lows. Will stay on with the warmer guidance on Monday for
maximum temperatures as the area returns to the warm sector.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 PM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

     - Above normal temperatures continue

     - No organized periods of rain

Expecting a slightly flatter split flow upper pattern during this
time range. Synoptic scale models begin to diverge in solutions on
Wednesday night. A short wave may track through the southern stream
and over the area on Thursday night.

The surface front slows, but continues south to the Gulf coast
region becoming aligned more west to east. How far south this front
progresses will determine the probability of rain. At this time
southern Virginia and northern North Carolina have a better
probability on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Not a dramatic cool down, but expecting highs 5 to 10 degrees above
normal Tuesday and Wednesday. Wednesday morning will be the coolest
of the week, with lows in the mid 40s to mid 50s in the mountains
and in the 50s in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

VFR conditions are present at all terminals this afternoon, as high
pressure continues to dominate the weather pattern across the area.

Little to no clouds are expected, but winds will remain elevated
from the south/southwest around 10-15 knots gusting to 20-25 knots
at times. Tonight, winds slightly reduce and subtly shift to the
southwest, but gusts of 10-20 knots remain possible. Models also are
showing LLWS during the night into early Saturday morning between 03-
12z, with values of 35-40 knots from the WSW expected at
BCB/BLF/LWB. With the upslope flow, stratus clouds are expected
to develop in the piedmont overnight, which will briefly lower
ceilings for DAN to around 4500 feet between 10-14z, but remain
in VFR conditions. No other terminals will see this occur.
Southwesterly winds remain elevated tomorrow, between 7-12
knots, with gusts up to 20 knots at times.

Confidence is high that VFR conditions are expected to continue
through the end of the TAF period.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A mostly dry cold front moves into the northern half of the area
late Sunday, with a slight chance of rain for LWB/BLF. Otherwise,
dry conditions are expected to continue into early next week, before
the cold front finally moves into the area late Monday, bringing
rain chances back into the area with likely sub-VFR conditions for
all terminals through Tuesday.

There is uncertainty in the forecast through late next week, as the
front will stall somewhere in the Carolinas, which will keep rain
chances possible each day, mainly for southern Virginia and into
NC, which may affect flight conditions.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 225PM EDT Friday...

Maximum temperatures on Saturday will be close to record values
at some of the local climate sites. Below are the current
record highs for April 19th.

Bluefield, WV....85 in 1976  Forecast: 80
Danville, VA.....94 in 1976  Forecast: 86
Lynchburg, VA....92 in 1941  Forecast: 86
Roanoke, VA......91 in 1995  Forecast: 90
Blacksburg, VA...86 in 1976  Forecast: 85

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JCB
NEAR TERM...JCB
SHORT TERM...AMS
LONG TERM...AMS
AVIATION...JCB/WP
CLIMATE...AMS