212
FXUS61 KRNK 301847
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
247 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A lingering warm and unstable airmass remains in place through
Tuesday. A cold front will move through the region
late Tuesday, which will bring a slightly cooler and less humid
airmass into the region by Thursday. Until then, expect
scattered to numerous afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms, some of which may contain very heavy rain,
resulting in localized flooding, as well as isolated severe
storms causing wind damage. Storms Tuesday may pose the greatest
threat with respect to severe weather, especially across the
Piedmont.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Scattered storms expected through this evening. Main threat
is heavy downpours and poor drainage flooding.

2) Scattered to numerous showers and storms expected Tuesday,
with potential for damaging winds in addition to heavy rain and
poor drainage flooding.

Stagnant airmass remains in place over the region...daytime
heating resulting in scattered airmass showers and storms...
greatest coverage over the mountains were orographic lift tends
to enhance the upward vertical motion. Biggest hazard from
todays storms (aside from lightning) is localized heavy
rainfall. PWAT above 1.70 supports high rain efficiency so any
storm that looms over any given area may result in flooding of
poor drainage areas. Even for the storms that have some forward
motion, expect ponding of water on roads.

Loss of daytime heating should bring end to most of the storm
activity...at least east of the Appalachian Divide. Convective
allowing models support lingering activity along the
Appalachian divide of West Virginia (NW of LWB) where
convergence will persist through the overnight per increasing
southwest winds ahead of an approaching front across WV. Other
than WV, decreased pops elsewhere with only a slight chc of a
shower overnight with main emphasis on some late night patchy
fog. Temperatures tonight will remain warm and muggy with little
or no relief per dewpoints remaining AOA 70.

An upper-level trough will traverse the region on Tuesday,
preceding a cold front. The trough will encourage a large area
of prefrontal lift, encouraging scattered to numerous showers
and storms by afternoon. Combination of surface temperatures in
the 80s and dewpoints of 70+ should provide for CAPE in excess
of 2000 j/kg to foster ample opportunity for at least loosely
organized storm activity which would promote isolated damaging
wind gusts from thunderstorm outflow and wet microbursts. The
entire forecast area has been highlighted by SPC for a marginal
risk (level 1 of 5) for severe storms Tuesday and a slight risk
(level 2 of 5) for NoVA where 30 kts of effective bulk shear is
being driven by stronger wsw mid-level wind flow.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

1)  Isolated shower and thunderstorm activity possible Wednesday,
transitioning into clear skies and dry weather on Thursday.

The cold front and associated thunderstorms should be clearing the
area by Tuesday night across the region; however, by Wednesday
morning, some post frontal showers may still be lingering West of
the Blue Ridge. This lingering moisture at the surface may lead to
some shower and thunderstorm activity along the ridgelines west of
the Blue Ridge Wednesday afternoon; however, this activity should
remain isolated in nature as much drier air aloft is forecast to
have already advected into the region behind the front, which should
be draped along coastal Virginia and North Carolina by Wednesday
afternoon. As upper level troughing settles into the Northeast,
surface high pressure is expected to settle over the MidAtlantic
states. This will lead to a few cool mornings in the upper 50s and
low 60s west of the Blue Ridge, and mid 60s east of the Blue Ridge
thanks to efficient radiational cooling. While lows will be on the
cool side, high temperatures will still be near or slightly above
average on Wednesday and Thursday with temperatures in the upper 80s
to low 90s each day east of the Blue Ridge, and low to mid 80s west
of the Blue Ridge. With High pressure completely established and
anchored to the region on Thursday, expect mostly clear skies and
dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Monday...

Key message:

1)  Dry weather will continue through the end of the work week, with
a gradual warm up to slightly above normal temperatures expected.

Surface high pressure and upper level troughing look to linger
across the MidAtlantic states and the Northeast through the end of
the work. PWATs will also drop down to around 1.00 inches for the
area, which will keep any chance for rain out of the forecast
through at least Friday. An upper level cut-off low off the
California coastline will eventually enter the northern jet stream
sometime mid-week, and make its way across the Great Lakes region by
the weekend. By this time, the upper level trough over the eastern
conus is expected to be pushed east allowing upper level ridging to
build over the eastern conus. This will bring back the moisture rich
PWATs of 1.5 inches to 1.8 inches by late Saturday, and a gradual
warm up to slightly above normal temperatures in the low to mid 90s
east of the Blue Ridge, and upper 80s to low 90s west of the Blue
Ridge. As that aforementioned upper level trough pushes east into
the eastern Great Lakes, daily isolated to scattered chances look to
return to the forecast starting Sunday. More widespread chances of
showers and thunderstorms look possible on Monday as the frontal
boundary associated with the upper level trough approaches the
region Monday afternoon.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Monday...

Overall VFR continue through this afternoon and into tonight
except for scattered showers and thunderstorms capable of very
heavy rainfall and gusty outflow winds. Expect brief reductions
in visibility with any storm and surface gust of 25 kts.

Storms expected to dissipate after sunset followed by
patchy fog for the late night, locally dense in the mountain
valleys with impacts mainly to LWB and BCB.

Showers and storms are expected to be more prolific Tuesday
ahead of an approaching cold front.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Passage of a cold front will bring bring drier conditions back
to the region for Wednesday and Thursday. VFR conditions are
expected outside of morning valley fog Wednesday through next
weekend, with only isolated chances for showers and
thunderstorms expected late in the week.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...EB
LONG TERM...EB
AVIATION...PM