214
FXUS61 KRNK 041828
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
228 PM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Warm above normal temperatures continue into the weekend with
an increasing chance of thunderstorms as well on Sunday.
Saturday should remain fairly dry, but will start cloudy as
wedging develops tonight. A front will pass through the region
on Sunday, with a much cooler airmass arriving next week. Sub
freezing temperatures continuing to look more likely on Tuesday
and Wednesday mornings.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TOMORROW/...
As of 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Above normal temperatures continue Saturday.

Surface high pressure is expected to quickly push east across
northern New England and southeastern Canada overnight tonight
and early Saturday morning. This high pressure is expected to
create weak wedging along the eastern side of the Appalachians
starting overnight and into the morning hours on Saturday as
winds at the surface become east/northeast through the Piedmont
of Virginia. This wedging combined with a warm moist airmass in
place will likely lead to dense low cloud cover that may
struggle to erode throughout the mid morning hours similar to
today. Given this trend, and how todays temperatures north of
the Virginia border have struggled to reach forecast values
throughout the day, Temperatures for Saturday have been reduced
significantly towards the 5th percentile. Low cloud cover is
expected to erode during the afternoon and evening hours;
however, upper level clouds are expected to continue to plague
the area. Even with dropping temperatures towards the lower end
of the spectrum for highs, temperatures are expected to be well
above normal for this time of the year, with many seeing highs
reach the low 80s in the Piedmont, and mid to upper 70s west of
the Blue Ridge. Overall, with the warm front lifting well north
of the area overnight and during the day on Saturday, much of
the area should remain dry with the exception of SE West
Virginia where a few showers could extend south from the
approaching cold front late Saturday night.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Thunderstorms likely on Sunday

2) Winds expected to pick up

Two cold fronts are expected to arrive in the next few days. The
first one will arrive as early as Sunday to bring thunderstorms for
the region. Confidence in precipitation is high, though the severe
potential remains low. A low CAPE / high shear environment set up is
forecast but weak lapse rates will hinder any severe potential in
spite of daytime heating. Nevertheless, the SPC has placed the
entire region in a Marginal Risk due to the threat of isolated
severe wind hazard with these storms. Winds will pick up thanks to a
850mb jet of 40-50 kts that will result in surface gusty winds of 20-
35 mph throughout the area. These winds will still be southwesterly
until the first front passes and shift the winds from the northwest.

The precipitation outlook continues to uptrend with most of the area
likely to receive between 0.75-1.00 inches of rain. While there is a
Marginal Risk of Excessive Rainfall for Sunday, the region could use
the rain due to the abnormally dry conditions.

The second front will shortly follow the first by around Monday
and bring much drier and colder air with it. Dew points thanks
to both fronts will steadily drop from the 50s and 60s to the
20s and teens between Saturday and Monday night. Little
precipitation is anticipated with this front, if any, but winds
will still be gusty between 20-35 mph along and west of the Blue
Ridge.



&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AS OF 200 PM EDT Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold temperatures return

2) Clear skies until possible system late next week

Once the second cold front moves through, a colder and drier air
mass will move in to continue the roller coaster ride of temperature
changes. A surface high from the northern Great Plains is projected
to move towards the southeast CONUS and into the Atlantic next week.
Sustained winds of 10-15 with gusts of 20-35 mph will continue early
next week and bring wind chills to below freezing levels. Early
morning wind chills for the middle of next week are forecast to be
in the lower 30s east of the Blue Ridge, in the 20s and teens along
and west of the Blue Ridge, and single digits in Western Greenbrier.

As the surface high passes over the southeastern CONUS, winds will
quiet down before becoming southerly. Skies will become clear and
temperatures will start to recover.

Towards the end of the week, a mid-level trough is forecast to
arrive towards the Mid-Atlantic but it is not clear on when it will
arrive or what its potential impacts will be.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 100 PM EDT Friday...

Light to moderate rain showers are currently moving across
northern portions of the area today, and are in the vicinity of
BCB, BLF, LWB, and LYH. These showers may produce reduced
visibility restrictions briefly as they pass over any of these
terminals. Additional thunderstorms are expected to develop
mainly north of the VA/NC border today where a stationary
boundary has set up in an east/west orientation just north of
the states line. These thunderstorms may also lead to brief MVFR
to IFR restrictions, and gusty/erratic winds this afternoon.
Once these storms dissipate towards the evening hours, a quick
moving high pressure system is expected to push east through the
northeast, which will lead to very brief wedging during the
overnight period across the area. This wedging will not only
lead to a northeast/east wind shift for LYH, DAN, and ROA, but
it will lead to reduced VSBYS, and CIGs for all terminals except
BLF. All of these terminals are expected to have IFR to LIFR
CIGs through the late overnight and early morning hours before
the high pressure exits off the coast, and a warm front lifts
north across the area during the late morning and early
afternoon hours, which will lead to winds shifting back out of
the south. While this will start to lift restrictions across the
area, all terminals with the exception of BLF look to remain at
least MVFR through the end of the period.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

A cold front may arrive by late Sunday into Sunday night to
provide sub-VFR conditions and a more widespread chance of
showers and thunderstorms. MVFR ceilings might linger into
Monday across the mountains, while a gusty northwest wind
returns.

&&

.CLIMATE...

low minimum temperature could be broken tonight again as WAA is
forecast to continue through the overnight hours keeping
temperatures well above the average for this time of the year,
with lows in the low to mid 60s forecast areawide.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/EB
CLIMATE...EB