391
FXUS61 KRNK 101051
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
651 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will stay in the area through Saturday
keeping us dry with cooler temperatures. This will result in
perhaps an entire week without rain, with temperatures near or a
little below normal.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

- A Freeze Warning has been issued for Greenbrier County, and a
  Frost Advisory has been issued for much of the higher terrain
  for tonight into Friday morning.

Surface high pressure centered over the Great Lakes region will
quickly dive south today, and will likely be centered over the
West Virginia/Virginia border by tonight. As this happens, skies
will continue to remain clear, and calm winds are expected
during the overnight hours tonight. This will allow for
efficient radiational cooling tonight through early Friday
morning. Many will likely see frost across the higher terrain,
and freezing temperatures are expected for valley locations such
as Greenbrier county, and Burkes Garden. During the day today,
gusty winds during the afternoon are expected as the pressure
gradient increases across the region as the surface high
pressure builds in; however, these gusty winds to 10-15 mph
should diminish through the evening. Overall, the largest
concern will be the frost chances across the higher terrain
area. Given this concern, Frost Advisories have been issued for
a portion of SW Virginia and SE West Virginia.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather through Saturday.

2) A slight chance of showers exists for parts of southeast West
Virginia during late Sunday into Sunday night.

High pressure will maintain dry weather through the remainder of
this week. After a chilly Friday morning with areas of frost
possible west of the Blue Ridge, temperatures should moderate into
Saturday as the upper level pattern becomes more zonal. Milder air
will return on Sunday as a southwest wind gusting up to 20 mph helps
to boosts warm air advection. Highs in the 70s should become
commonplace by Sunday afternoon. However, clouds will increase by
Sunday evening as a cold front approaches the Appalachian Mountains.
While moisture remains significantly limited, a slight chance of
showers exists for parts of southeast West Virginia for late Sunday
into Sunday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 330 AM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is moderate for dry conditions during the first half
of the work week.

2) Freezing temperatures may be possible west of the Blue Ridge by
Wednesday morning.

A slight chance of showers may linger into Monday morning for
portions of southeast West Virginia, but the moisture will quickly
erode as a cooler and drier northwest wind follows the frontal
passage. This northwest wind may gust up to 25 mph on Monday along
the higher elevations. A deep upper level trough will dominate the
eastern United States through Tuesday and Wednesday. While some
models indicate a low chance of showers during this time, the
overall consensus keeps the Appalachian Mountains dry. Temperatures
will plummet due to this synoptic pattern, and the first freeze of
the season could occur on Wednesday morning across a wider area of
the mountains beyond just Burkes Garden.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 630 AM EDT Thursday...

VFR conditions look to prevail for much of the region at all
terminals outside of some brief MVFR to LIFR Visibilities and
CIGs developing near KLWB where river fog may spill into the
terminals location early during sunrise this morning, and Friday
morning. Outside of this brief instance of MVFR to LIFR
restrictions, VFR conditions will prevail at KLWB, and all other
terminals for the remainder of the TAF period. Some scattered
cirrus at or above 25000 feet may move into the KDAN and KLYH
terminals over the next 12 hours; however, these clouds will
have no operational impact to the terminals.

Extended Aviation Discussion...

VFR through the period, outside of patchy late night/early
morning fog. A few showers around LWB/BLF Sunday night but
should be isolated.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for VAZ007-009>017-
     019-020-024.
NC...None.
WV...Frost Advisory from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ042>044.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ507-508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...BMG/EB