597
FXUS61 KRNK 100035
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
735 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure moves from the Great Lakes to off the mid-Atlantic
coast by Sunday as a front tracks in from the west. This front
crosses our area Sunday night into Monday bringing showers.
High pressure settles into the region by Tuesday, followed by
another front by Thursday with limited moisture.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 720 PM EST Saturday...

Key message:

   - Rain will start across the region by Sunday afternoon

   - Heavier rainfall amounts will be in the mountains
     compared to the Piedmont.

High clouds continued to spread into the area from the west
this evening. Made slight adjustments to slow the arrival time
of the rain on Sunday. Still looking like much of the area will
stay dry until the afternoon. No changes made to temperatures at
this time.


Previous Discussion
As of 100 PM EST Saturday...

Surface high pressure centered over central New York tonight is
expected to slide southeast off the coast of the Virginia by Sunday
morning. As this happens, the northeast wedge that has quickly
developed today will transition to a more southeasterly flow during
the overnight hours. This may lead to some stronger winds of 10-15
mph with gusts to 20-25 mph on the western slopes of the Appalachians
in West Virginia overnight.

As the surface flow becomes more southeasterly, moisture will
advect into the region ahead of a quickly approaching frontal
boundary that is currently draped across the Mississippi valley
today. This frontal boundary will bring increased rain chances
to the area, with West Virginia locations likely seeing isolated
to scattered rain showers starting in the mid morning hours
before expanding in coverage by the evening hours. The further
east across the forecast area the lower the coverage of rain
showers is forecast. This will also reduce the total
precipitation forecasted, with much of the West Virginia
counties expecting around 0.50 inches, which decreases to around
0.25-0.30 inches across portions of Southwest Virginia west of
the Blue Ridge. These forecast rainfall totals continue to
decrease to around 0.10-0.20 across the Piedmont of Virginia and
North Carolina. The rainfall totals decrease from west to east
across the forecast area as upper level forcing for ascent is
again expected to lift to the north.

The main upper level shortwave vorticity maxima in association
with the aforementioned frontal boundary is expected to ride
over the pesky upper level ridge that has been entrenched over
the southeast United States for the last month or so. Overall,
expect a rainy day across the region for many on Sunday, with
eastern areas seeing the rainfall start slightly later in the
afternoon compared to western zones. High temperatures look to
remain in the 50s across higher terrain locations, and the low
60s across the Piedmont. Lows tonight will generally fall into
the low 40s to upper 30s across the region.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 111 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain Likely Sunday night into Monday morning.

2) Dry weather returns by late Monday with temperatures above normal.

An upper level low over the Great Lakes will push a cold front over
the area Monday. Prefrontal showers are likely Sunday night into
Monday afternoon, followed by drier and cooler air Monday night into
Tuesday night. Rainfall amounts will range from a half of an inch
along western slopes (Tazewell VA to Greenbrier WV) to a quarter of
an inch for the rest of the mountains. Rainfall amounts across the
foothills and piedmont will range around one to two tenths of an
inch (0.10 to 0.20). Though excessive rainfall is marginal, not
seeing any signs of heavy downpours or flooding issues with this
system, aside from potential culverts ponding due to leaves and rain.
An area of high pressure will move from the Great Lakes Monday to
New England Tuesday. High pressure will then wedge south into the
area Tuesday night.

Mild temperatures expected Monday with highs in the 60s west of the
Blue Ridge to the low and mid 70s east. Cooler temperatures Tuesday
with highs ranging from the mid to upper 50s across the mountains to
the mid and upper 60s in the foothills and piedmont.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EST Saturday...

Key Messages:

1: Mainly dry this period.

2: Temperatures running closer to normal.

A wedge of cool and dry high pressure will begin to erode Wednesday
as a cold front approaches the region from the west. This cold front
is expected to track over the region Wednesday night. With a dry air
mass in place and low pressure tracking north of the Great Lakes,
there is a low chance for measurable rainfall for the area. Another
area of high pressure will build over the region Thursday, keeping
dry conditions going into next weekend.

Temperatures will remain warmer than normal through the period. The
cold day of the period will be Wednesday with highs in the upper 50s
to lower 60s. By the weekend, temperatures will be around 10F warmer
than normal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 735 PM EST Saturday...

VFR conditions will continue through 12Z on Sunday as cirrus
spread into the area from the west and ceilings gradually lower
below 10Kft.

Ceilings will drop below 5Kft at local TAF sites after noon and
down to MVFR at KLWB, KLYH, and KBCB around 20Z/3PM. KROA, KBLF,
and KDAN will lower to MVFR after the 00Z/7PM end of the TAF
forecast period. Light showers will fill in from west to east
after 18Z/1PM but any restriction in visibility will be after
00Z/7PM.

Winds will become southeast by Sunday morning. Winds will
predominantly remain around 5-10 knots however, KBLF could see
some gusty winds overnight and Sunday with gusts up to 20 kts.

Average confidence for timing of lower ceilings.
Average confidence for wind and visibility.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

Widespread MVFR to IFR ceilings and MVFR visibility due to rain
and fog are expected Sunday night into Monday morning.

The front clears out by Monday afternoon, with VFR conditions
returning Tuesday and Wednesday as high pressure settles back
into the eastern U.S.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH/WP
NEAR TERM...AS/EB
SHORT TERM...RCS
LONG TERM...RCS
AVIATION...AMS/EB