272
FXUS61 KRNK 070821
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
321 AM EST Thu Nov 7 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A slow moving front tracks south across the area through
tonight. High pressure builds in behind this front into Saturday
before another front arrives Sunday into Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 222 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Front to bring isolated/widely scattered showers, maybe a rumble
of thunder today-tonight.

2) Temperatures well above normal with potential records.

Deep moisture continues to pool northeast from Georgia/SC into
Virginia ahead of a front and a southwest flow aloft. Moisture from
Rafael remains over Florida and south.

Today, the showers to our south may scrape by the northern piedmont
of NC into southside VA but most will be dry. There is an area of
low clouds/fog along the Blue Ridge from near Floyd down to Blowing
Rock but with limited coverage have only issued an SPS for that,
since its impacting I-77 and the BRP.

As we head through today, the flow aloft flattens/turns more
westerly while front takes on a more east-west orientation. Models
are in general agreement that coverage overall today will be
isolated to widely scattered with no decent upper support, relying
mainly on low level convergence and instability to create
convection. Enough instability with sunshine, (yes even in
November), could very well bring thunderstorms to portions of the
region, but nothing severe. This convection will start push east to
the piedmont later this afternoon/evening before weakening tonight.
Front enters NC overnight but still enough low level forcing for
patchy showers in the piedmont.

Fog will likely develop where it rains overnight as long as we see
enough clearing, with more confidence of fog in the mountains.

Highs today will feel more like late September than early November,
with 70s areawide, and even a few lower 80s in the Piedmont. Cannot
rule out a record high. See climate section below.

Thu night lows will be a little cooler with clouds/front to the
south but still 20 degrees above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...

Key Message:

1. Temps cooling for the weekend and next front approaches with
increased rain chances for Sunday.

WNW flow aloft in the wake of the near term fropa will allow for
another drier airmass and ridging to set up in the area for Friday
and even further amplification/strengthening on Saturday ahead of
the next system to the west. This system looks to again keep the
main dynamics and forcing away from the area and well north as a
closed upper low tracks across the Great Lakes, but does advect an
elongated moisture axis and front across the area with a weaker
southern extent of the trough for Sunday into Monday. For now QPF
totals look to range from about a quarter inch in the Piedmont to
near a half of an inch in the mountains and upwards of close to one
inch in the far NW.

Above normal temps continue Friday with many locations in the upper
60s to 70s, then cooler highs for the weekend at near to below
climo.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM EST Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Departing front and precip chances Monday.
2) Dry for much of the week, then possible cold front Thursday.

Forecast is looking to trend a bit drier for later Monday behind the
aforementioned front and upper trough axis. There could be a weak
shortwave that flirts with the north for Tuesday, though there is
some discrepancy in guidance and looks to be a bit moisture starved
so will maintain a dry fcst. Amplified ridging and continued dry
conditions is a decent bet for Wednesday, then the focus will shift
to a cold front possibly slinging across the area for Thursday on
the southern portion of a rather strong upper wave. Guidance
differs in some timing and available moisture with this feature but
we have plenty of time to monitor.

Monday highs look to generally be above norms in the 60s to near
70s, then lowering by a few degrees or so each subsequent day.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1224 AM EST Thursday...

VFR expected for much of this taf period, with mid and high
clouds to start lowering to 4-8kft this afternoon with a front
moving across. Coverage of showers/few storms will be
isolated/widely scattered and not enough to have in the tafs.

Will likely see BKN V SCT conditions by late morning but will
lean toward the broken deck with the front in the area and low
level moisture increased.

Cannot rule out some fog at LWB this morning but very low
confidence now given cloud cover extent to limit fog
development.

Thursday evening likely will see cigs drop to MVFR in the
mountains with MVFR to IFR fog at BLF/LWB.

Winds light and generally less than 10kts through the period.

Overall confidence is moderate.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...
Lower cigs will be possible in the mountains into Friday morning
otherwise dry and VFR into Saturday. A front to our west and
moisture streaming up from the Gulf and TS Rafael may bring
showers and sub-VFR Sunday afternoon into Monday.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 314 AM EST Thursday...

Highs today could be close to records, as well as warm record
lows.

Warmest Lows Thu 11/07
SITE              Record/Year         Forecast
Roanoke               62/1938            62
Lynchburg             59/1938            62
Danville              62/1977            63
Blacksburg            56/1938            58
Bluefield             58/1996            57

Record Highs For Thu 11/07:
SITE              Record/Year         Forecast
Roanoke               83/2022            78
Lynchburg             84/2022            80
Danville              83/1975            81
Blacksburg            76/2022            74
Bluefield             81/1924            71

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...AB
LONG TERM...AB
AVIATION...BMG/WP
CLIMATE...WP