045
FXUS61 KRNK 150631
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
131 AM EST Fri Nov 15 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Upslope clouds and showers will persist today for parts of the
mountains. High pressure builds in for the weekend and early
next week bringing dry weather and warming temperatures. A low
pressure system and cold front will approach the area on Tuesday
and Wednesday, bringing the next widespread chance of precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 105 AM EDT Friday...

Key messages:

    - Warmer today
    - Clearing in the piedmont
    - Rain ending in most of the mountains by this afternoon

MSAS analysis was showing the largest surface pressure falls just
off the North Carolina coast along with a deepening low pressure
system. Deeper moisture and the precipitation around this low
had moved east into eastern Virginia and eastern North
Carolina. However, low level moisture extended west through the
Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. Winds will be from the west and
northwest this morning which will keep upslope clouds and
scattered showers over the mountains and help erode clouds east
of the Blue Ridge.


Already starting to see larger breaks in the clouds over the North
Carolina foothills. Locations that clear out before sunrise will
likely fog in. Dense fog is possible before 7AM. But, once mixing
begins in the morning, the fog will dissipate. Enough sun and
downslope heating to bring highs in the piedmont into the lower 60s.
Locations that stay cloudy today will only warm into the 50s.

Wind gusts up to 30 mph are expected at higher elevations today,
especially along the southern Blue Ridge and in the eastern half of
Virginia and North Carolina as the pressure gradient tightens around
the developing offshore low. Wind speeds will diminish tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather throughout this period.

2) A warming trend should take place by Sunday and Monday.

High pressure will gradually build across the Appalachian Mountains
on Saturday to bring dry weather amidst a northwest flow. Light
winds and clear skies by Saturday night should cause temperatures to
fall into the 30s for most locations toward Sunday morning. Heights
aloft will rise during Sunday and Monday as an upper level ridge
builds over the Southeast. The wind should turn to the southwest on
Sunday to allow high temperatures to jump into the 60s. Monday will
continue the above normal warmth as a warm front passes to the
northwest. By late Monday, clouds should increase as a cold front
approaches from the west.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is increasing for a chance of showers during Tuesday
and Wednesday as a cold front arrives.

2) The above normal warmth may come to a halt by Thursday after the
frontal passage.

A cold front will cross the Appalachian Mountains during Tuesday and
Wednesday. The better chance of showers should occur west of the
Blue Ridge on Tuesday and shift eastward by Wednesday. The models
have come into much better agreement compared to previous runs with
the overall synoptic pattern for the latter half of the week. A deep
upper level low will arrive after the frontal passage by Wednesday
night. Temperatures should notably drop on Thursday due to this deep
low aloft as the wind pivots to the northwest and becomes gusty.
Upslope moisture could linger in the mountains for the remainder of
the week.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM EST Friday...

MSAS analysis was showing the largest surface pressure falls just
off the North Carolina coast along with a deepening low pressure
system. Deeper moisture and the precipitation around this low
had moved east into eastern Virginia and eastern North
Carolina. However, an extensive shield of IFR to LIFR clouds
extended west through the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys.

Winds will be from the west and northwest this morning which
will keep upslope clouds and scattered showers over the
mountains and help erode clouds east of the Blue Ridge. Expect
KBLF to remain IFR/LIFR and KLWB to remain MVFR/IFR through the
TAF forecast period. KBCB will improve back to VFR late in the
afternoon.

Already starting to see larger breaks in the clouds over the North
Carolina foothills. Locations that clear out before sunrise will
likely fog in. LIFR to IFR  is possible before 7AM. But, once
mixing begins in the morning, the fog will dissipate. Expecting
a return to VFR at KROA,KLYH, and KDAN after 16Z/noon.

Wind gusts up to 30 mph are expected at higher elevations today,
especially along the southern Blue Ridge and in the eastern half of
Virginia and North Carolina as the pressure gradient tightens around
the developing offshore low. Wind speeds will diminish tonight.
Have added LLWS in the KBCB TAF for this morning.

Average confidence for ceiling, visibility, and wind.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK

MVFR clouds clear out in the mountains on Saturday afternoon.
VFR ceilings are expected in the foothills and piedmont.

VFR conditions return for all areas Saturday night through
Monday night.

An approaching cold front will bring the chance of showers and
sub-VFR conditions to the mountains on Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AMS
NEAR TERM...AMS
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...AS