233
FXUS61 KRNK 281734
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1234 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front lifts north across the Ohio Valley this afternoon
and evening followed by a cold front Saturday. This front will
bring temperatures back below normal for the weekend. High
pressure will be in place most of the weekend, shifting offshore
early next week with moderating temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1213 PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Dry, with potential fire weather issues especially Saturday.

2) West winds 10-20mph, gusting 20-35 mph Saturday.

Dealing with some mountain wave standing cirrus east of the Blue
Ridge in NC. Hi-res ARW picked up on this well, and thins it out
this afternoon.

A cold front tracks into the mountains late night, but during
this time, best lift to stay north of us, but may see a
rain/snow shower Saturday morning in the WV mountains but not
amounting to much.

Behind this front, gradient tightens, but low level jet is not
incredibly strong, mainly 30-35kts, so will still be breezy
Saturday with sustained winds 10-20mph, some gusts to 30-35 mph
in the mountains. With brush/leaf litter drying out more today,
this may become an issue tomorrow in terms of wildfires. See
Fire Weather section below.

Cloud cover Saturday will be scattered, more clouds early in the
WV mountains but scattering out. Some mountain wave standing
cirrus/altocu possible as well. Temperatures in the mountains
could start to drop as cold advection kicks in  after 18z.

After lows in the mid 30s to lower 40s tonight, temperatures
Saturday will boost up into the 60s across the southside VA
piedmont into the NC piedmont, ranging back toward 60 around
Roanoke/Lynchburg, and in the 40s and 50s west.
Confidence is high for the near term forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of NOON EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is high for dry weather during Sunday and Monday.

2) Temperatures should start notably below normal on Sunday but
slowly moderate by Monday.

Canadian high pressure should build southeastward towards the
Appalachian Mountains on Saturday night. Colder and drier air will
allow temperatures to fall into the teens and 20s by Sunday morning.
Wind chill values could drop as low as zero in the highest
elevations. The gusty northwest flow will slowly fade on Sunday but
eventually diminish by Sunday night as high pressure crosses the Mid
Atlantic. Dry conditions should persist through Monday, but clouds
will start to increase from the west as a low pressure system
organizes in the Plains. Temperatures should moderate closer to
normal values by Monday and Monday night as the upper level flow
becomes zonal and a southerly flow develops near the surface.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of NOON PM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Confidence is rising for increasing winds and the next chance of
widespread rain during Tuesday night and Wednesday.

2) Colder air and mountain snow showers may return by Wednesday
night into Thursday.

A low pressure system in the Plains should intensify on Tuesday,
which will allow a warm front to stretch towards the Ohio River
Valley. Moisture will increase during the day with a chance of
showers west of the Blue Ridge. Tuesday night may feature increasing
south winds and rising chances of rain as the low pressure system
approaches the Appalachian Mountains. The bulk of the rain may come
during Wednesday with the arrival of a cold front, but there are
still notable timing differences with the frontal passage in the
models. Although weak instability may be available by Wednesday
afternoon, confidence is too low to mention chances of convection
given the timing differences and the widespread cloud cover.

By Wednesday night into Thursday, colder air should return with rain
changing to snow showers in the mountains from Boone to Lewisburg.
Gusty northwest winds will also take place to enhance the upslope
moisture. High pressure should build across the Mid Atlantic by
Thursday night to bring drier weather and lighter winds. However,
the models hint at another low pressure system forming somewhere in
the Plains and moving eastward on Friday. Clouds could increase
again towards Friday evening with perhaps a slight chance of showers
reaching portions of southeast West Virginia.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1221 PM EST Friday...

Dry through the period with VFR. Wind should be the main concern
with low level wind shear possible in the mountains tonight.

Southwest winds turn west behind a front between 06z-12z in the
mountains and east afterwards. Gusts to 20-30kts possible by 18z
Saturday.


.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mainly VFR through the period. Tuesday a warm front may bring
sub-VFR to the mountains.

West winds diminish Saturday night into Sunday to 10 to 20 kts
from the NW Sunday. Winds turn light and southerly Monday, but
will be a little stronger on Tuesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
As of 1227 pM EST Friday...

Low RH and Winds will keep fire danger increased this afternoon
in NC.

Saturday will be drier and windier, so potential red flag day
over NC, and increased fire danger in the foothills/piedmont of
VA.

Increased Fire Danger possible east of the Blue Ridge
Saturday...

RH values already dropping to 30 percent or less, while winds
are gusting to 20-25 mph in the NC mountains. 10 hour fuels are
running 6-8% in the NC foothills/just along the Blue Ridge
escarpment, but around 10 percent in the Piedmont.

No changes to the afternoon fire danger statement in NC.

Per coordination with forest service officials and neighboring
forecast offices, we are looking at near red flag conditions
over our NC counties Saturday afternoon, so a Fire Weather Watch
will be issued. Our Virginia counties mainly east of the Blue
Ridge will reach criteria that fits more of an increased fire
danger statement with RH 20-30 percent but sustained winds stay
at 10-18 mph for most.

As a reminder, for non-federal and non-state land managers,
please be mindful of local and state laws. States, such as VA,
have burn laws. Virginia`s 4 PM Burning Law prohibits open-air
burning before 4 PM through April 30. The law applies to fires
within 300 feet of dry grass or woodland areas.

Sunday and Monday have the potential to be favorable burn days,
since the winds will be lighter.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...PW
LONG TERM...PW
AVIATION...SH/WP
FIRE WEATHER...SH/WP