062
FXUS61 KRNK 140633
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
233 AM EDT Sun Sep 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will keep our weather dry through the weekend into
early next week. A coastal low may bring an opportunity for
light rain midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...

As of 200 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet weather with pleasant fall temperatures.

A large omega-type pattern currently encompassed the U.S., with
troughing over the west and eastern seaboard, and ridging in
between. Building ridging at the surface and aloft will keep the
area dry with just some passing cloud cover. After a good
radiational cooling event this morning, temperatures will warm
into the mid 70s to lower 80s across the area. For Sunday
night/Monday morning, expect overnight lows similar to this
morning, with patchy river and mountain valley fog. A low
pressure system off the Carolinas will deepen and may push
additional cloud cover towards the Blue Ridge by Monday morning.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Dry still on Monday.
2. Isolated to scattered showers on Tuesday and Wednesday,
especially eastern parts of the area. Isolated thunderstorms
cannot be ruled out.
3. Trending cooler through mid-week.

A look at the 13 Sep 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Monday/Monday night a ridge of high pressure
over south-central CONUS into the Mississippi River Valley.
Another ridge is expected over the western Atlantic. Between the
two a height weakness is expected over the eastern one-quarter
of CONUS. Additionally, a trough will be over portions of
MT/ND/SD/WY/ID. For Tuesday/Tuesday night, little changes in the
overall synoptic pattern across CONUS. The approaching trough
heading into the Northern Plains helps to start flatten the
ridge over the Mississippi Valley. For Wednesday/Wednesday
night, the weakness over the eastern one-quarter of the US
deepens a bit more such that a closed low is expected to develop
over the area of the Delmarva peninsula north into southern New
England. The trough over the Northern High Plains reaches the
Upper Mississippi Valley.

At the surface, a ridge of high pressure will be situated over
the Appalachians while low pressure develops off the coast of
the Carolinas and starts to head north Monday/Monday night. For
Tuesday/Tuesday night, this same low will continue its northward
path and be just off the Delmarva Peninsula by late Tuesday
night. Ridging continues over the Appalachians. For
Wednesday/Wednesday night the low off the Delmarva Peninsula
will continue on its slow track northward, all the way high
pressure remains parked over the Appalachians. By late Wednesday
night, a cold front is expected to extent from low pressure
near WI, southwest into the Central Plains states.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. While
Monday is still expected to be dry, look for increasing chances
of showers heading into mid-week. As low pressure develops
between the Carolinas and the Delmarva Peninsula and moves
north, the western extent of this system is expected to spread
showers into our region. With high pressure still over of the
Appalachians, eastern portions of the area will see the greatest
potential for showers. While not high on the confidence factor,
isolated afternoon thunderstorms may also accompany the showers
both Tuesday and Wednesday afternoon. With an increase in both
cloud cover and coverage of showers, look for a trend towards
cooler temperatures through mid-week.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 215 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Points:

1. Return to primarily dry weather for Thursday and Friday.
2. Isolated/Scattered showers/storms for Saturday.
3. Temperatures return to values a few degrees above normal.

A look a the 13 Sep 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Thursday/Thursday night the Delmarva low
heading northeast as an open shortwave trough. The Upper
Mississippi River Valley trough makes little headway eastward,
but become more amplified south into the Central Plains states.
The result will be a weak shortwave ridge over our region. For
Friday/Friday night, we expect some small movement eastward of
the Upper Mississippi Valley trough into parts of the Great
Lakes and Lower Ohio River Valley. The shortwave ridge over our
region flattens a bit. For Saturday, the trough axis over the
Lower Ohio Valley progresses a bit farther east into parts of
the Tennessee Valley.

At the surface, the low off the Delmarva Peninsula makes enough
progress northeast to not be a factor in our forecast
Thursday/Thursday night. We will see a brief strengthening of
the ridge over our region. The cold front to our west will reach
the mid- Mississippi Valley. For Friday/Friday night, high
pressure remains centered over the region as the cold front
continues making progress eastward toward our area. For
Saturday, ensemble averaging continues with a similar pattern as
Friday. However, individual members show notable differences in
the relative positions of the cold front and surface high
pressure over or near or region.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. The
low off the Delmarva coast will head northeast on Thursday,
with the ridge over the Appalachians regaining control over our
weather pattern. Mainly dry weather is again expected Thursday
and Friday along with moderating temperatures. For Saturday, a
cold front will be approaching from the west. With the approach
of this feature, moisture will start to pool ahead of the front
with an increased potential for isolated to scattered
showers/storms for Saturday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM EDT Sunday...

VFR conditions are expected through the TAF period, with some
fog possible for LYH and LWB due to their proximity`s to
rivers. This river valley fog may spill into the terminals, and
lead to some MVFR to IFR restrictions early this morning.
Outside of these restrictions, VFR conditions are expected.
Northerly winds look to become easterly to northeasterly by
this afternoon and evening for all terminals, but should remain
at around 5 knots or less.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

High pressure will continue to provide VFR conditions through
Monday. The only exception will be patchy fog in the river
valleys during the nighttime into early morning hours. By
Tuesday, the models indicate a low pressure system cutting off
along the South Carolina coast and possibly spreading moisture
northward to bring the next chance of rain and potential
MVFR/IFR conditions through Wednesday along and east of the Blue
Ridge. Confidence is low on the midweek system.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...SH