919
FXUS61 KRNK 060717
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
317 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure over the area will move off to our east Sunday
afternoon. A cold front will move through the region Sunday
night, allowing cooler and drier air to settle in the region for
much of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) High pressure today with temperatures similar to Saturday.

2) Front crosses the area late tonight, exiting to the south by
Monday morning.

3) Light rain, clouds, and gusty winds will primarily affect the
mountains.

High pressure at the surface and aloft were over the Mid
Atlantic this morning, but will gradually sink south through the
day as a short wave trough over the Great Lakes pushes a surface
cold front towards our region. Current easterly flow at the
surface has helped with fog and some stratus development this
morning. This should dissipate by mid morning.

The front arrives after midnight tonight in southeastern WV,
northern VA, and pushes through most of the area by morning.
Brief light rain is possible in the mountains, mainly for SE WV
and perhaps the higher peaks of the Blue Ridge. Timing of the
passage outside of daylight hours and the lack of upper level
forcing this far south will keep precipitation amounts light and
isolated. More noticeable may be the gusty NW winds that should
have speeds around 15-25 mph overnight and into Monday morning,
mainly for the mountains.

Upslope clouds should bank along the westward facing slopes
overnight into Monday morning, until the cooler and drier air
working in from the north erodes it.

Confidence in the near term is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Dry, quiet weather, with temperatures near to slightly below
normal.

The first half of the work week will be dry and quiet for the local
forecast area, under high pressure at the surface, and generally
northwesterly flow aloft, with a large ridge building over the
western US and a northern stream trough tracking across southern
Canada. Temperatures will stay near to slightly below normal through
this forecast period with a drier and cooler airmass moving into the
region. Monday looks to be the warmest day, with highs in the mid to
upper 70s in the Piedmont and Foothills, and 60s in along and west
of the mountains. By Tuesday, highs will drop into low to mid 60s in
the west, and upper 60s to low 70s in the east. Lows will be in the
40s for most, but may dip into the mid to upper 30s in the typical
cooler spots, such as the elevated mountain valleys like Burkes
Garden, and Mount Rogers.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 315 AM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1. Period of dry and quiet weather continues.
2. Potential for frost late in the week.
3. Temperatures increase slightly into the weekend.

Surface high pressure will be the dominant weather feature over
the region, keeping skies clear and precipitation chances near
zero through the second half of the work week. As the surface
high expands eastward into the region and becomes more centered
overhead, the potential for frost increases in the mountains of
southeast WV, southwest VA, and the Alleghany Highlands late in
the week. Tropical Storm Milton is forecast to stay south of the
area, with the strong high pressure overhead and troughing
aloft over the northeastern US, and no impacts to the local
forecast area are expected.

High temperatures will be in the low 60s in the west, and upper 60s
in the east Thursday, mid 60s in the west and near 70 in the east
Friday. By Saturday, flow aloft becomes more westerly, as the trough
centered over southern Canada starts to flatten. Thus, temperatures
will trend a few degrees warmer for the weekend, in the low to mid
70s for most locations, though the higher ridges may hold in the 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 245 AM EDT Sunday...

High pressure surface and aloft will remain over the area
through 07/00Z. Light and variable winds early this morning
have had some easterly component, and this has helped with fog
and low stratus development. LYH, DAN, LWB, and BCB will all
have a period of IFR to LIFR ceilings/visibilities between
09-13Z this morning. ROA and BLF may see MVFR fog briefly.

Winds increase to 5 to 10 kts and turn SSE by 15Z, then become
westerly after 07/00Z until a frontal passage occurs after
07/06Z. At that point gusty NW winds develop with gusts to 20-25
kts for the mountains. BLF and LWB may see -SHRA briefly, but
thunder looks unlikely and the forcing falls apart as it crosses
the mountains. Some MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible for the
mountains overnight with the frontal passage, but as dry air and
northerly winds work in, moisture will drop and so should cloud
cover by 07/12Z.

Extended Aviation Discussion... Canadian high pressure will
dominate the region most of next week. Outside of patchy morning
fog with increasing probability later on in the week, VFR
conditions are likely to prevail.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...AS
LONG TERM...AS
AVIATION...SH/RAB