508
FXUS61 KRNK 040207
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1007 PM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region with dry weather
expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no
additional rain is forecast until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Quiet night with dry and pleasant weather expected tomorrow.

No significant changes to the forecast for the overnight hours.
A little Canadian wildfire smoke has made it into the Greenbrier
Valley, and we were seeing some intermittent haze with it
earlier. We should be cloud-free overnight under high pressure.
Expect some morning fog in the favored mountain and river
valleys. Some patches will be briefly dense to a quarter mile or
so.


As of 115 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Generally dry and fair through Independence Day.

Stalled boundary remains to the southeast of the forecast area
draped across the Carolinas. Surface high pressure will
gradually build in through tonight and tomorrow as an upper wave
over New England depart east.

Mostly sunny skies with just some passing CU through the
afternoon and early evening. May have just enough lift for a few
light showers across the Piedmont region, so have added in a
brief period of showers/drizzle through early evening. Otherwise
expecting dry conditions through tonight and tomorrow as high
pressure continues to build overhead.

Temperatures near normal with lower dew points should provide a
problem free Independence Day in the weather department.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Message:

1) Relatively quiet weather period thanks to wedged surface high

A large surface high pressure system will make its way eastward
and into the Atlantic the next few days. A portion of this
system will get wedged into the mountains and keep skies mostly
clear for a majority of the forecast area. This wedged system
will also be squished between an approaching frontal boundary
and a storm disturbance off eastern Florida.

The Floridian disturbance currently only has a 60% chance of
developing into a tropical storm within the next 7 days. Whether
it forms or not, its projected path is expected to be along the
Carolina coast. Potential impacts to our region are forecast to
be trivial. The system may be close enough to cause easterly
wind gusts up to 15 mph in the North Carolina counties and
Southside Virginia and provide a brief chance of precipitation
for this region. The system could still travel more towards the
ocean or inland so confidence in this part of the forecast will
grow as we head into the weekend.

Temperatures will continue to be on the warmer side with
regional highs in the 80s, except at higher elevations. There
is a bit of model disagreement on how dew points will fluctuate,
particularly due to the surface high`s wedge, but a safe bet is
values will be in the 60s, generally speaking.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Thursday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot and muggy next week

2) Multiple opportunities for showers and thunderstorms next
week

The disturbance off of Florida is expected to be absorbed by the
main 500mb flow and head northeast early next week. A frontal
system looks to stall in the area but it is still not entirely
clear whether it passes through or retreats north later next
week. This boundary layer, combined with plenty of surface
heating and moisture, will provide opportunity for daily
afternoon convective thunderstorms. High temperatures may reach
into the 80s and 90s and the heat index could potentially get to
100 for the Piedmont region around Monday and Tuesday. Dew
points are expected to climb back up and bring muggy conditions
with values in the 60s and lower 70s.

An upper level ridge will form over Florida mid-next week and
zonal winds aloft will bring shortwaves towards the Mid-
Atlantic. Model guidance suggests a more potent shortwave to
arrive late next week when widespread precipitation would be the
highest. The Storm Prediction Center mentioned a potential MCS
forming across the Great Plains but there is too much
uncertainty on the upper level pattern to know where this system
could go if it forms. This will be monitored in future
forecasts.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1000 PM EDT Thursday...

Should see LIFR fog at LWB again early Friday morning, with
patchy fog here and there in other river and mountains valleys
as well. Outside of that, expecting mostly sunny skies and
widespread VFR.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through early next week. May see some isolated to scattered
storms Sunday into Monday but low confidence on aviation
terminal impacts.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG
NEAR TERM...BMG/SH
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...BMG/SH