910
FXUS61 KRNK 141740
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
140 PM EDT Tue Oct 14 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Expect dry weather into the first part of the weekend. A dry
cold front tracks across by Thursday bringing cooler air. A
stronger front arrives by Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 110 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Message:

1. A dry pattern into Wednesday.

Stratocu hugging the western slopes of southeast WV and also
across the Piedmont behind the departing low will start to erode
through this evening. The 12z NAM however, depicts the stratocu
getting stuck in the mountains through the night under inversion
which is plausible. Will maintain some cloud cover keeping sct
v bkn. Cannot rule out some river valley fog Wed morning in the
Greenbrier, Upper New and Upper James river basins.

Lows tonight running around 2-5 degrees above normal, with mid
to upper 40s mountains to lower 50s across southside VA into NC
Piedmont.

A dry front arrives Wednesday with just a few clouds. North to
northwest winds could pick up some by mid afternoon over the
mountains/foothills with gusts to 20 mph. With plenty of
sunshine temperatures should rebound into the upper 60s to lower
70s in the mountains, to upper 70s east.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Dry conditions through the period.
2. Freeze/Frost potential Thursday night for portion of the
mountains.

A look at the 14 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Wednesday night a trough/closed low centered over
MT to AZ, a highly amplified ridge centered along the extent of the
entire Mississippi Valley, and a longwave trough oriented nw-se
centered over the Canadian Maritimes. For Thursday/Thursday night, a
deepening of the eastern trough is expected. The low/trough in the
west is expected to make progress eastward to closer to the front
range of the Rockies. The ridge is expected to not have a lot of
movement, but potential have its northern extent weekend a bit by
the advancing trough in the west. For Friday/Friday night, the
eastern trough/low is expected to shift farther east into the
western Atlantic, the western trough is expected to reach the
Central Plains states, and the ridge is expected to progress east,
bring almost centered over our region during the evening hours.

At the surface, for Wednesday night low pressure will situated off
the New England coast with a cold front extending southwest across
the mid-Atlantic region and farther westward into the Ohio Valley.
High pressure will be centered over western Ontario. For
Thursday/Thursday night, a ridge of high pressure will work its way
into our region. Its axis will be centered overhead by late Thursday
night. For Friday/Friday night, the ridge axis will slowly progress
east of the region. To our west, low pressure will develop across
southwest Ontario with an associated cold front extending into the
Central Plains states.

A look at the 14 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Thursday ranging from +6C to +8C
across the region. On Friday, values trend upward, with numbers
closer to +11C to +12C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. In the
wake of the cold front on Wednesday, dry weather is expected through
the period as high pressure builds into and then just east of the
area. High temperatures will initially trend cooler on Thursday, but
then rebound a few degrees on Friday compared to highs on Thursday.
Low temperatures are expected to trend colder each night through
Thursday night, before being a bit higher Friday night. Values on
Wednesday night, combined with light winds could lead to freezing
conditions and/or frost across conditions for portions of the
mountains.

Confidence in the expected is moderate to high.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 130 PM EDT Tuesday...

Key Points:

1. Warming trend Saturday into Sunday.
2. Cold front with showers and perhaps a few storms Sunday.
3. Return to drier and cooler conditions Monday and Tuesday.

A look a the 14 Oct 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday/Saturday night, the center of the ridge
is expected to shift to over New England. The trough over the lee of
the Rockies is expected to shift over the near or over the
Mississippi Valley. Additionally ridging is now expected over
western CONUS with a trough over the Gulf of Alaska. For
Sunday/Sunday night, the trough over the Mississippi Valley is
expected to shift east, with its trough axis extending from MI south
to GA by the evening hours. Riding over New England shifts to over
the Canadian Maritimes. In the west the ridge axis is expected to
shift east to over the Rockies with a trough moving onshore the
Pacific Northwest. For Monday/Monday night, the trough over the
Lower Ohio Valley is expected to have deepened, potentially closed
off, and be centered over New England by the evening hours. A ridge
moves east to over the Upper Mississippi Valley, and a trough moves
east to over roughly MT south to AZ. For Tuesday, the closed over
over New England is expected to move slowly northeast to near Nova
Scotia by the evening hours. The ridge over Mississippi Valley shift
to over the Great Lakes and the Lower Ohio Valley, and the trough in
the west reaches the Central to Northern High plains states.

At the surface, for Saturday/Saturday night, the western extent of
ridge of high pressure remains over our region as a cold front moves
east into the Mississippi Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night, the cold
front moves into and across our region. For Monday/Monday night, the
cold front moves east of our region, while high pressure builds
across the SE US. For Tuesday, the center of the SE US high shifts
to over the coast of the Carolinas. Low pressure deepens near MN/WI
with an associated cold front extending into TX.

A look at the 14 Oct 00Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures on Saturday around +13 across the area.
Values of this range correspond to the 90 to 97.5 percentile of the
30-year CFSR climatology. On Sunday, values decrease to roughly +8C
to +11C across the region. For Monday, values slide slightly
more to +7C to +9C. For Tuesday, values trend upward to +11C to
+12C.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. With a
ridge moving southeast, and a cold front approaching from the west,
low level flow will increase from the south and southwest. This will
allow for moderating temperatures and an increase in precipitable
water values. Look for increasing chance of showers on Saturday
night late in advance of the cold front. Showers will be the most
numerous on Sunday immediately in advance and coincident to the
frontal passage. There may be enough instability in the west for
some isolated thunderstorms Sunday afternoon. High quickly builds
back into the region by Monday, bringing a return to dry weather and
cooler conditions Monday and Tuesday.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 115 PM EDT Tuesday...

VFR conditions expected through period. There is some sct v bkn
stratocu near BLF/LWB around 2-3kft but overall anticipate it
to stay scattered per satellite/weather cams, despite automated
equipment showing bkn/ovc at times.

Could still see some stratocu tonight if the NAM is right and
with moisture getting stuck under inversion its plausible.
However, will maintain VFR at BLF/LWB. Fog possible at LWB if
its clear enough with lighter winds with IFR vsbys forecast.

Any fog and clouds erode between 12-14z.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions remain through the rest of this period. Expect
some gusty wind Wed afternoon from ROA/BCB west to BLF/LWB in
the 15-20 kt range. Cannot rule out fog at LWB in the typical
09-13z time frame, but with drier airmass would be confined to
near river valleys, so low confidence on fog.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...WP
NEAR TERM...WP
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...WP