026
FXUS61 KRNK 022358
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
758 PM EDT Wed Jul 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will build across the region Thursday with dry
weather expected for the upcoming Holiday weekend. Little or no
additional rain is forecast until next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 730 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Lingering shower/storm potential along and east of the
Blue Ridge this evening...otherwise clearing with patchy fog.

2) Drier air infiltrates next 24 hours...less humid Thursday.

An isolated shower or two are present on radar east of the Blue
Ridge. They are small and unorganized, and will dissipate
quickly. Moisture is quickly leaving the upper levels of the
atmosphere, and with it the potential for active weather.
Nothing to amend except for updating the temperature forecast to
match the slightly warmer temps, perhaps caused by lingering low
level moisture disallowing efficient radiative cooling.

From the previous discussion...

Surface cold has moved into eastern VA/NC. Showers with
embedded thunderstorms are ongoing along and east of the front.
Clearing has been taking place over our forecast area.

Water Vapor imagery shows significant drying aloft. This should
increase entrainment and limit CAPE for the remainder of the
day. Can`t rule out a stray shower between now and sunset, but
coverage should be isolated.

The front drifts to the coast tonight...High pressure building
into the forecast area from the northwest. Aside for some patchy
fog tonight, little or no sensible weather is expected through
Thursday. Any morning clouds and fog should mix into what
should be a dry afternoon with dewpoints falling into the 50s to
lower 60s...temperatures seasonably warm for July, but not
oppressive.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Message:

1) Warm and mostly clear conditions into the weekend

A surface high pressure system from the west will travel eastward
into the Atlantic to provide mostly clear and calm conditions for
the latter half of the week and into the weekend. Dew points may be
a little lighter on July 4, with values as low as the upper 50s
along and west of the Blue Ridge, but these will recover into the
60s by the weekend. 500mb heights will build up as a large upper
level ridge forms and stretches over the southwestern CONUS.
Temperatures will increase with region wide highs into the 80s with
the warmest values in the upper 80s in the Piedmont and Southside VA.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 PM EDT Wednesday...

Key Messages:

1) Hot conditions return next week

2) Precipitation chances increase early next week

This part of the forecast is a bit complicated as it is dependent on
the actions of approaching systems. One is a storm disturbance off
the Floridian coast which may make its way into the Carolinas and
potentially offer a precipitation chance for the more southeastern
counties. The current most likely path of this system keeps it along
the Carolina coast so winds may change in direction (not so much
magnitude) as a result of the system`s influence. The other system
involves a long cold front connected by surface low pressure systems
that approaches from the northwest. Model guidance is in
disagreement on whether this front passes through or stalls and
becomes stationary. The earliest the front will be in the Mid-
Atlantic region will be by Monday and if it stalls in our vicinity,
it could provide a boundary region for continual thunderstorm
development. Another upper level ridge is set to take shape over the
southeastern CONUS and with veering of winds there will be an
increase in moisture and diurnal heating to provide afternoon
convective thunderstorms. However, if the front moves through, there
is an opportunity for relatively cooler and drier air to enter and
the time frame for showers narrows down. Confidence in the forecast
will increase as we approach the weekend.

As previously mentioned, if the front stalls or never goes through,
expect temperatures to be hot next week, especially for areas along
and east of the Blue Ridge. Surface high temperatures may get into
the mid-90s for this part of the area while areas along and east of
the Blue Ridge may get into the 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 245 PM EDT Wednesday...


VFR conditions and calm winds, generally out of the west or
northwest. Trapped moisture in the boundary layer could bring
fog in the morning before it is mixed out by diurnal heating.
Mostly clear for the remainder of Thursday, with more light
northwesterly winds. No active weather or storms to speak of in
this period.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

VFR conditions are expected outside of morning valley fog
through this weekend.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM/VFJ
SHORT TERM...CG
LONG TERM...CG
AVIATION...PM/VFJ