172
FXUS61 KRNK 041426
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
1026 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and mainly dry conditions look to continue through the work
week as high pressure pushing down the east side of the
Appalachians. While most of the area will see dry conditions,
portions of NW North Carolina and SW Virginia may see some
isolated showers. The next best rain chance for the area
doesn`t return until Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1020 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Cool and mainly dry conditions continue.

2) Patchy fog and low stratus develops overnight into Tuesday
   morning.

Dry weather persists through the afternoon. Exception may be
some spotty showers around the NC High Country into the Grayson
Highlands, due to some upslope flow and increasing
PWATS/moisture. Temps remain about 5 degrees below normal.

Previous discussion...

Surface high pressure will slide into southeastern Canada
throughout the day today, which will maintain a cool and dry
airmass over the region today. Subsidence from the
aforementioned high pressure will also lead to mostly clear
skies; however, some low clouds and river valley fog can`t be
ruled out during the early morning hours. This low stratus and
fog should lift by the mid morning as surface heating mixes down
dry air aloft. Easterly flow today will also lead to upslope
flow along the ridge lines of the Blue Ridge, which may lead to
increased cloud cover and a few isolated showers across these
areas. Confidence is low in precipitation development as PWATs
are expected to continue to remain around 1.0 inch range.
Towards the late evening, increased low stratus and fog looks to
develop in east Tennessee and western North Carolina and push
north through the New River Valley overnight. This looks to lead
to a cloudy start for most west of the Blue Ridge early Tuesday
morning.

Confidence in this forecast is high.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Rain chances return midweek as moisture moves back into the area.

2) Below normal temperatures continue through the period.

A strong high pressure over the Northeast US will continue to wedge
in across our area. Skies will remain mostly cloudy each day, thanks
to the easterly upslope flow. The drier air aloft that has limited
rain chances the last few days will exit, as an upper ridge in the
western Atlantic drives moisture in from the south. Tuesday into
Wednesday looks to be the best chance of rain, thanks to the
moisture flow and a weak upper trough over the Ohio Valley into
Tennessee that will enhance lift. Areas west of I-77 will likely see
rainfall, with more scattered coverage for the Piedmont and areas
north of US-460. Due to the cool surface wedge, thunderstorms will
be unlikely both days, but cannot be ruled out during the late
afternoon hours. Thursday will see similar weather, with
showers/storms possible, but slightly drier air aloft will limit the
convection to be more scattered in nature area-wide.

Rain totals for the period will vary, with most areas seeing around
0.25-0.50" on average with lighter amounts to the north and east.
The higher amounts will be across the southern Blue Ridge and NC
mountains, where an inch or more of rain is forecast. These higher
totals could lead to localized flash flooding where the heaviest
rainfall occurs.

The summer cooldown continues, as the wedge remains firmly in place,
keeping temperatures 5-10 degrees below average through the period.
Highs will be in the 60s/70s Tuesday and Wednesday, before sightly
rising into the 70s to around 80 degrees on Thursday. Lows will be
in the mid 50s to low 60s each morning.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AS OF 145 AM EDT Monday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures return to around normal late weekend.

2) Rain chances persist each day, as potential tropical moisture may
move into the area.

The synoptic pattern remains largely unchanged Thursday night into
Friday, as a stalled frontal boundary remains along the Gulf Coast,
and a strong high pressure system sits over the Northeastern US. The
Mid-Atlantic will remain wedged in Friday, keeping cool and cloudy
conditions in place into Saturday with a chance of showers/storms
each day, particularly for the NC/VA mountains thanks to easterly
upslope flow and higher moisture content. By Saturday, the wedge
finally erodes as the high moves east.

Models are continuing to hint at a tropical disturbance in the
western Atlantic that may form along the stalled frontal boundary to
our south and move towards the East Coast this weekend. Most models
show at least some sort of tropical wave of moisture moving towards
the Carolina coastline. Until models become better aligned with
development and where it will head, this is something that will be
monitored but not forecast, which is what the National Hurricane
Center is also doing. Regardless if there is a tropical system or
not, it is looking increasingly likely that additional tropical
moisture from the Atlantic will be driven into our area late week
into the weekend. This will keep rain chances in the forecast each
day through the period. However, until there is more confidence in
the above scenario, PoPs are kept modest, around 40-50%.

Temperatures remain below normal thanks to the wedge, with highs in
the 70s to low 80s. By Sunday, the wedge erodes, with upper 70s to
mid 80s expected. Overnight lows will mainly be in the 60s area-
wide.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 100 AM EDT Monday...

With high pressure remaining anchored across southeastern
Canada, predominantly VFR conditions are expected at all
terminals through the period with the exception of KLWB. KLWB
will likely see low stratus and fog over the next few hours due
to radiational cooling and river fog developing over the last
couple of hours. This has lead to MVFR to LIFR restrictions
developing through the early morning hours. This low stratus
and fog should lift by the mid morning hours as daytime heating
will quickly mix out the aforementioned fog and low stratus.
Easterly flow may continue to lead to upslope cloud cover
developing along the spine of the Blue Ridge. VFR pilots should
use caution when flying in and near the crest of the Blue Ridge
as this may lead to visual obstruction. Low stratus and fog look
to develop again Tuesday morning at LWB. BCB and ROA may also
join LWB Tuesday morning as low clouds push north and east up
the New River Valley during the overnight hours. MVFR
restrictions look possible, and have been added at the
aforementioned terminals.


Confidence in this forecast is moderate to high.

.EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

In general, expecting VFR conditions the next few days until
later in the week when additional moisture moves back into the
region to revamp precipitation chances.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB/WP
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...EB/PM