996
FXUS61 KRNK 010036
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
836 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front is moving across the Mid-atlantic region. Winds
will become northerly overnight, introducing cooler, less humid
weather for Monday. Dry weather is expected to persist through
Tuesday. Temperatures start to heat up again by the 4th of July.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 835 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Message:

1) Severe thunderstorm watch #491 has been cancelled for our
forecast area.

2) Humid with scattered showers/storms this evening, dissipating
by midnight.

3) Cooler and less humid Monday.

A steamy airmass covers the entire forecast area with dewpoints
mainly in the 70s. Showers and a few thunderstorms provided
some relief, but humidity is still running high. A surface cold
front is on our door step, just to our northwest, and will
cross the area during the overnight. Tomorrow should feel quite
different with a wholesale decrease in dewpoints.

At least some folks got a shower today. We had a little over a
tenth of an inch (0.11) here at the NWS office in Blacksburg
from a shower that lasted about 15 minutes. Many folks
experienced less than this.

Weather focus through this evening will be the decline in shower
activity with clearing taking place from north to south. Winds
should become northerly overnight with dewpoints trending lower
by morning.

By in large today was our best chance for getting any rain (and
that is not saying much). Now that the front is coming through,
precip potential will go way down until later in the week.

As mentioned before, anticipating a wholesale change in airmass
overnight with a much more pleasant day Monday. Dewpoints are
expected to fall at least 20 degrees...falling into the 50s for
Monday! Temperatures will also come down...a pleasant way to
start the first day of July.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1: Heat ramps up heading towards Independence Day

The first half of next week will be characterized by surface high
pressure an intensifying subtropical ridge growing out of the
southern plains and covering most of eastern and southern CONUS.
This will result in daily increases in temperature as well as
dewpoint. Highs on Monday will grow from the mid 80s/ upper 70s, and
become 80s and low 90s by Wednesday July 3. Summer will make its
presence known. All of this ridging and high pressure will keep
skies clear and prevent shower formation, so shade and remaining
indoors will be the only  reprieve from the heat. This period of
high temperatures and no cloud cover will only serve to worsen the
abnormally dry and moderate drought conditions we`re experiencing in
the region.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 230 PM EDT Sunday...

Key Messages:

1: Independence Day hot with potential for storms

2: Unsettled second half of the week

Independence Day (Thursday) will likely be the hottest day of the
week, and even  the hottest of the season so far. Highs east of the
Blue Ridge will be well into the 90s. Heat indices towards central
VA and Southside VA will likely exceed 100F for a few hours in the
afternoon Thursday and Friday. At the same time a front looks to
finally break through the ridging over the southern CONUS, bringing
the next shot of showers and storms since this weekend. Following
the ridge weakening and surface high pressure being displaced,
several waves with indeterminate timing will keep showers and storms
in the forecast from Thursday on through the weekend. Timing of
showers will be monitored closely as we forecast for holiday
activities. Confidence is increasing for stormy conditions on
Independence Day to potentially disrupt activities. After
Independence Day, temperatures could moderate a bit, but still
expecting temperatures and heat indices well above normal.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 800 PM EDT Sunday...

A cold front is moving through the mid-atlantic with scattered
to numerous showers over eastern VA and into the Carolinas.
These showers will come to an end or move off the coast tonight,
replaced by a cooler drier airmass for Monday. Expecting a
gradual clearing from the north overnight with widespread VFR
for Monday.

A wind shift will take place overnight, winds becoming
northerly...and remaining out of the north or northeast
Monday... generally 10 kts or less.

Confidence in the above scenario is moderate to high.


EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Tuesday-Wednesday appear to be VFR as high pressure moves across
the area. Could be some fog Monday night in the river valleys
and for areas that received significant rainfall. Storm chances
increase by Thursday ahead of a front so sub-VFR possible.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...PM
NEAR TERM...PM
SHORT TERM...VFJ
LONG TERM...VFJ
AVIATION...PM