120
FXUS61 KRNK 191122
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
622 AM EST Sun Jan 19 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system will bring a mix of rain and snow for
parts of the area today. Light to moderate snow accumulations
will be possible in the mountains. Upslope snow showers will
persist through Sunday night into Monday. As winds become gusty
and Arctic air arrives, dangerously low wind chills are expected
for most of the upcoming week. Temperatures should moderate by
late next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 620 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Winter weather warnings and advisories in effect through
Monday morning for the mountains mainly for snow.

2) Extreme cold warnings/cold weather advisories out for the
mountains 4 AM Monday morning through noon.

This morning, a strong short wave currently moving through Texas
in the base of a trough will move quickly east. At the same
time, a northern stream short wave will swing into the OH
Valley. Finally, low pressure over GA will move to the coast and
deepen as it moves offshore. A combination of these features
will bring light to moderate precipitation to the region today
and tonight. Models are hinting at a large dry slot moving in
from the SW this afternoon, and bringing an end to most
precipitation, except for upslope areas, which will continue to
have snow showers into Monday as cold air advection kicks in. A
related concern to the dry slot is the coastal low, which will
draw a lot of moisture away from our area, and this could also
cut down on totals. That said, most locations will see some
precipitation today, with more confidence in snow totals farther
north and west towards the western NC mountains, north through
Tazewell County, and east towards Bath County.

As far as p-type and totals, it looks like mainly rain/snow,
with some freezing rain and sleet mixing in early in the
western mountains. Areas east of the Blue Ridge will see mostly
rain before precipitation tapers off this afternoon. The
mountains will see about 1-4 inches of snow, with higher amounts
up to 6 inches or so in western Greenbrier through early Monday
morning, due to strong CAA and upslope conditions.

Temperatures even at daybreak this morning will be warmer than
they will be for many days, so try to appreciate it!
Temperatures warm only slightly for the mountains today, with
some warming in the piedmont into the 40s. However, a strong
Arctic air mass associated with very strong high pressure
spilling out of northern Canada will allow temperatures to drop
quickly tonight, with lows in the negative single digits to
about +10 in the mountains, and the teens for the piedmont. This
corresponds with 850mb temperature plummeting to -24 to -28C by
morning. Winds will be gusty between 20 and 35 mph, and will
contribute to wind chills generally between -5 and -15 for the
lower elevations along and west of the Blue Ridge, and as low as
-25 for western Greenbrier, WV and higher peaks and ridges. In
the piedmont, it will feel like it is 0 to +10 degrees.

Between the snow and extremely cold temperatures/wind chills,
much of the areas west of the Blue Ridge are under Winter
Weather Advisories, with Winter Storm Warnings for W. Greenbrier
County in WV, and Watauga County, NC. Extreme cold warnings and
advisories are in effect for much the same area overnight into
Monday.

Confidence is low to moderate for snow amounts, and high for
extreme cold/temperatures.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Cold temperatures will be in the higher elevations with below
zero wind chill values Monday morning, Extreme Cold Warning in
effect.

2) An Extreme Cold Watch is in effect for areas west of the Blue
Ridge Tuesday evening through Wednesday morning.

3) Little precipitation is expected through the period, though the
eastern piedmont could see light snow Tuesday night.

Snow showers will taper off Monday morning across the area, as a
strong high pressure builds into the region with very dry air
keeping things quiet. Similar weather is expected on Tuesday,
though an upper level trough will move towards the area, which
could trigger a few upslope snow showers on the western slopes
late in the day. At the same time, a low pressure system across
the southeastern US will move along the East Coast and could
bring a few snow showers to the far eastern piedmont. The
likelihood of this has trended down since yesterday, as models
show the system further east, away from our CWA, which will keep
drier air in place overhead. PoPs currently are around 20-30%
for Tuesday night into Wednesday morning. Most of the RNK CWA
will remain dry through the day Wednesday as another strong high
pressure builds in and reinforces the cold air.

Temperatures will be excessively cold each day of the period,
with lows in the single digits and teens across the area, with
higher elevations seeing temperatures below zero. Although
winds will not be particularly strong, wind gusts of 25+ mph
will be elevated enough Monday to cause dangerous wind chill
values below zero west of the Blue Ridge, with teens and 20s
below zero in the higher elevations. High temperatures on Monday
will only reach into the teens/20s, with mountain locations
remaining in the single digits to around zero.

Tuesday morning will have similar low temperatures to Monday,
however, one small improvement is that winds will reduce to
around 10 mph, though wind chills will remain below zero west
of the Blue Ridge. An Extreme Cold Watch may be needed for
Tuesday morning, but wind shill values are expected to remain
just above watch criteria. Western Greenbrier County will likely
be the exception to this, and continue to have wind chill
values around 20 to 25 below zero. Highs on Tuesday will be in
the teens/20s, while Wednesday morning will see even colder
overnight lows, near to zero to below zero west of the Blue
Ridge. Due to this slight drop in temperatures, along with a
slight increase in wind gusts to around 15 mph, an Extreme Cold
Watch is in place for Wednesday morning. Highs that afternoon
will be in the teens/20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Key Messages:

1) Temperatures remain below average but will rebound into the 30s.

2) Mostly quiet weather will persist, aside from a few upslope
snow showers and another possibility of eastern piedmont snow
late week.

High pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern for
the late week, with dry conditions area-wide. Models are
hinting at yet another coastal storm that may brush the far
eastern piedmont on Friday, but confidence in this remains low.
After that system moves away, northwest flow behind it may allow
upslope snow showers to once again impact the western upslope
areas Friday night into Saturday. Otherwise, quiet conditions
will continue through the end of the period.

Another very cold morning on Thursday will see lows in the
single digits across most of the CWA. However, winds will
shift to the south that afternoon, which will allow temperatures
to rise quickly through the day. Despite the increase, highs
will only be in the 30s and still below average. Highs slowly
rise into the upper 30s to low 40s by Saturday. Low temperatures
will be in the teens until Saturday night, with lows in the
20s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 330 AM EST Sunday...

Conditions ranged from LIFR at BLF to VFR at LYH. Confidence is
high that ceilings will continue to lower this morning as
moisture increases from a developing low pressure system over
eastern North Carolina, as well as short wave energy aloft.
Fog is likely due to the low ceilings, and snow is most likely
for the mountains, with rain more likely for LYH and DAN,
although we could see a brief changeover later today. There is a
low chance for freezing rain or sleet early, but too low to
mention in the TAFs. Most precipitation besides BLF and LWB
will end this afternoon to early evening. There is a possibility
for periods with little precipitation.

The wind should turn around towards the northwest and become
gusty by this afternoon/evening. While moisture should decrease
in the piedmont, upslope snow showers will continue in the
mountains.

EXTENDED AVIATION OUTLOOK...

Mountain snow showers will persist through Monday morning, with
winds decreasing by Monday afternoon. Conditions should improve
to VFR by Monday, but it will be considerably colder due to an
Arctic air mass. A low pressure system will track along the Gulf
Coast Tuesday and Wednesday, but confidence is too low to
mention any impacts as the bulk of the moisture stays too far to
the south. Dry but cold weather should continue into Thursday
with VFR conditions anticipated.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 300 AM EST Sunday...

Bluefield, Blacksburg, Roanoke may have their minimum highs
challenged on Monday, where we are forecasting 8, 15 and 21,
respectively. Here are the records below:

Monday 01/20/2025
Site  MaxT Year  MinT Year  LoMax Year  HiMin Year
KBLF    66 1954   -20 1985     11 1940     50 1927
KDAN    70 1951    -1 1994     14 1994     50 1954
KLYH    68 1926    -7 1985     19 1994     50 1954
KROA    69 1951   -10 1985     20 1994     44 2017
KRNK    67 1951    -5 1994     16 1994     39 2017

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ009-015.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for VAZ007-
     009>012-015.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for VAZ007-009>017-019-020.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for VAZ007.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for VAZ010>014-
     018>020-023-024.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for VAZ013-
     014-016>020.
NC...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ001.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for NCZ001-
     002-018.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for NCZ001-002-018.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for NCZ018.
WV...Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for WVZ042-
     043.
     Extreme Cold Watch from Tuesday evening through Wednesday
     morning for WVZ042>044-507.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 7 AM EST Monday for WVZ042-043.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 1 AM EST Monday for WVZ044-507.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 4 AM to noon EST Monday for WVZ044-
     507.
     Winter Storm Warning until 7 AM EST Monday for WVZ508.
     Extreme Cold Warning from 4 AM Monday to noon EST Wednesday
     for WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BMG/PW/SH
NEAR TERM...SH
SHORT TERM...JCB
LONG TERM...JCB
AVIATION...SH
CLIMATE...SH