877
FXUS61 KRNK 281107
AFDRNK

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Blacksburg VA
607 AM EST Fri Nov 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...

Cold and blustery conditions continue today and into Saturday
morning. High pressure over the region tonight into Saturday
morning will lead to morning lows in the teens across the area.
An approaching low pressure system and associated front will
bring a chance for precipitation Saturday night into Sunday,
with some wintry mix possible at the onset across mountain
locations. A second low pressure system may bring additional
chances for precipitation Monday night into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Key Messages:

1) Blustery and cold through Saturday morning.

2) Lows in the teens areawide are expected early Saturday
   morning.



Snow showers/flurries should be ending across western facing
slopes in SE West Virginia by sunrise, with a few flurries
possibly continuing through the mid morning hours for portions
of Western Greenbrier county. Skies should slowly start to clear
throughout the afternoon and evening across these areas.

Windy conditions look to continue today across much of the area
as 850mb winds out of the northwest remain at around 30-40
knots through Friday morning before subsiding in the afternoon.
These 850mb winds look to be accompanied with a tight pressure
gradient from a surface high pressure system working its way
into the region that is currently centered over the Dakotas.
Gusts look to increase to 25-30 mph at times, with some mountain
locations surging to near 40 mph. While these winds will be
gusty during the morning and early afternoon hours, they should
diminish throughout the day, and by the evening hours as high
pressure settles over the region Friday night.

With high pressure settling over the region tonight, this will
create the perfect conditions for radiational cooling, with
clear skies and calm winds. Many areas will see low temperatures
in the low 20s to upper teens east of the Blue Ridge and low to
mid teens west of the Blue Ridge early Saturday morning.

High temperatures today look to stay near or below freezing for
locations west of the Blue Ridge, and in the upper 30s to low
40s for locations east of the Blue Ridge.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Key Points:

1. Light wintery mix for the mountains possible late Saturday night
into Sunday morning.
2. Brief dry period on Monday.
3. Potentially a more robust wintry mix for the mountains and
northern Piedmont Monday night (confidence still low on details).
4. Temperatures below normal through the period.

A look a the 27 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Saturday/Saturday night, a deep area of closed low
pressure will be situated just north of Hudson Bay. Its associated
trough axis is expected to extend south into the mid-Mississippi
Valley. A weak shortwave ridge will be exiting our region to the
east. A trough will be over the SW US, and an amplified ridge will
be over the Gulf of Alaska. For Sunday/Sunday night, the closed
upper low moves little, but its associated trough axis pivots east
to over the Great Lakes region. Another trough will extend from WY
southwest into the SW US. An upper ridge will be situated off the
Pacific Northwest. For Monday/Monday night, the trough axis over the
Great Lakes shifts east to over the Canadian Maritimes. The trough
across the western US merges with yet another trough rounding the
base of the closed Canadian low.

At the surface for Saturday/Saturday night, high pressure will be
centered off the New England coast. Low pressure will be moving
through the mid to upper Mississippi Valley, reaching MO/IL during
the evening hours. Its associated cold front will trail southwest
into the Arklatex region. A warm front will extend east into the
Lower Ohio Valley. For Sunday/Sunday night, the surface low
continues its northeast path, reaching southern Quebec by the
evening hours. Its associated cold front is expected to cross our
region during the daytime Sunday, after first being crossed by the
warm front. A broad area of high pressure becomes centered over the
Upper Mississippi Valley region. For Monday/Monday night, high
pressure broadens and becomes center over PA/NY during the evening
hours. A weak shortwave trough may develop over the Lower
Mississippi Valley along a surface cold front.

A look at the 27 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Saturday around -3C to -1C, northeast
to southwest, across the region. For Sunday, values in the morning
are expected to be around +1C to +3C, n-s, before responding to a
cold frontal passage by the afternoon. By the evening hours, expect
values of -4C to +3C, nw-se. For Monday, temperatures continue
falling, reaching -4C to +1C, nw-se by the evening hours.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. During
Saturday night, a warm front is expected to pass across the region,
progressing southwest to northeast. Light precipitation is expected
with this feature impacting mainly the mountains. Southern sections
have a potential early on for some light freezing rain with northern
sections having light snow. As the night progresses, and the warm
nose aloft spreads north, more northern parts of the region may see
the light snow change to light freezing rain. Additionally, surface
values may warm enough for some portions in the south for freezing
rain to transition to a light cold, non-freezing, rain.

For Sunday, while a cold front approaches from the west, warm air
advection should allow for most regions to see a plain cold
rain from sunrise and onward. The one exception may be parts of
southeast West Virginia where light freezing rain may linger a
while longer before surface temperatures warm above freezing. By
the late afternoon, the cold front will start progressing
through the region. This will allow winds to shift northwest and
start cold air advection into the region. The higher terrain of
southeast West Virginia should see snow during this time. These
will continue through the evening hours. For the remainder of
the region, the northwest flow will yield downsloping/subsidence
conditions, and a conclusion of the precipitation.

For Monday, high pressure will provide us a shortbreak in the active
weather pattern. However, by Monday night, a disturbance progressing
northeast from the Lower Mississippi Valley, will allow for a warm
front and associated precipitation to start overrunning the region
from southwest to northeast. A wintry mix is expected for the
mountains, and northern portions of the Piedmont region. The
southern Piedmont is expected to be generally warm enough for
plain cold rain.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is moderate Saturday
through Monday, with Monday night having low confidence, especially
in the specific wintry p-types for each region.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 100 AM EST Friday...

Key Points:

1. Potential wintry mix event on Tuesday (confidence still low on
details)
2. Dry Wednesday and Thursday.
3. Below normal temperatures.

A look at the 27 Nov 00Z NCEP Ensemble Mean 500mb Geopotential
Heights shows for Tuesday/Tuesday night, a broad upper trough with a
parent closed low over Hudson Bay progresses eastward into the
Mississippi Valley around evening. A shortwave trough heads
southeast over the Pacific Northwest. Ridging is expected over the
Gulf of Alaska. Southwest flow will prevail across our region in
advance of the upper trough. For Wednesday/Wednesday night, the
trough over the Mississippi Valley progresses eastward, crossing our
region, and will be centered over New England by the evening hours.
Across western CONUS, yet another shortwave trough get paired with
another disturbance rounding the western side of the closed Hudson
Bay low. For Thursday, the axis of the western US trough progresses
eastward, reaching the Great Lakes region around the evening.

At the surface for Tuesday/Tuesday night, a disturbance over the
Lower Mississippi Valley deepens and progresses northeast, arriving
just off the VA/NC coast by the evening hours. A warm front will
advance concurrent to the low, crossing our region during the day.
High pressure will become centered over the mid-Mississippi Valley.
For Wednesday/Wednesday night, high pressure will advance towards
the region with its center over the Lower Ohio Valley by the evening
hours. For Thursday, the center of the high retrogrades to over the
mid-Mississippi Valley, but the eastern extend of its axis will be
centered over our region.

A look at the 27 Nov 12Z NAEFS Ensemble Situational Awareness data
shows 850mb temperatures for Tuesday starting the day around -2C to
+2C, n-s. By evening, the same range is expected, but with the
gradient orientation nw-se. For Wednesday, values dip slightly
heading into the morning hours, but by afternoon are expected in the
-1C to +2C range, n-s. On Thursday, values inch upward slightly to
0C to +3C, nw-se.

The above weather patterns offers the following forecast. On
Tuesday, a warm front will continue progression northeast through
the region -- exiting northeast sections by mid-day. For the
afternoon, a cold front will cross the area, allowing for cold air
advection at all levels, and thus leaving us with a rain vs
snow forecast. The snow will be most probable across the
mountains with rain elsewhere. The system is expected to exit
the entire region by daybreak Wednesday.

For Wednesday into Thursday, dry weather is forecast with a ridge of
high pressure centered across the region.

Temperatures during this portion of the forecast are expected to be
below normal for this time of year.

Confidence in the above weather scenario is low for Tuesday
(especially location and wintry p-type) and moderate for Wednesday
and Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 AM EST Friday...

VFR conditions are being observed at all terminals this morning,
with some snow showers and flurries being observed off and on
at BLF and LWB. Both of these terminals are also experiencing
off and on MVFR CIGs; however, these CIGs should lift to VFR
permanently during the mid morning hours. While restrictions
look to lift throughout the day, winds will continue to remain
elevated and gusty across the region, with west/northwest winds
gusting 20-30 knots for mountain terminals, and 20-25 knots for
Piedmont terminals through the mid morning hours before
diminishing through the afternoon and early evening hours. Given
these wind gusts, turbulence is likely along the Blue Ridge
from KCLT to KROA to KDCA/KIAD. This turbulence should improve
throughout the day and into the overnight hours.



.Extended Aviation Outlook...

High pressure to provide better aviation weather Saturday
before another front arrives Sat night into Sunday with a wintry
mix to rain event and sub-VFR becoming likely. A reprieve
possibly Monday before another low brings wintry mix to rain
Tuesday.

&&

.RNK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
VA...None.
NC...None.
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM EST this morning for
     WVZ508.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...EB
NEAR TERM...EB
SHORT TERM...DS
LONG TERM...DS
AVIATION...EB/RCS