864
FXUS61 KRLX 241057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
557 AM EST Mon Nov 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
After morning fog, we`ll have a dry and partly sunny day today.
The next weather system arrives tonight, bringing rain Tuesday
into Wednesday. Sharply colder and breezy for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 400 AM Monday...

No changes to grids at this point, but a dense fog advisory has
been issued until 10 AM for NE Kentucky, far southern Ohio, and
most of central and southwestern West Virginia.


As of 1245 AM Monday...

Clear skies and calm winds have allowed a fair amount of valley
fog to form across much of the area between the Ohio River and
the crest of the Appalachians. This fog will persist for many of
these locations into the first part of the morning, lifting or
clearing by a couple hours after sunrise. Otherwise, high
pressure will maintain dry weather over the area today and this
evening. The porous leading edge of the cirrus shield ahead of
the next storm system may start to move over our CWA around or a
bit before sunrise, but the denser overcast may not fully move
in until closer to midday or early afternoon. Highs today are
forecast to be near or a bit above normal - mid-50s to low 60s
for the lowlands, and upper 40s to mid-50s in the higher
terrain.

This incoming system, which as of press time is all the way back
over the southern High Plains, will race eastward today and
tonight. As the warm front pushes north across the region
overnight, showers will begin to spread into the CWA, likely
around or a bit after midnight. Through sunrise on Tuesday, the
best chances for rain are forecast to remain generally along and
west of the I-77 corridor. The increasing cloud cover and
developing S`ly winds once the warm front passes will help to
keep locations milder than normal overnight, with lows staying
above 40 degrees for much of the CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 AM Monday...

As the storm system moves across the Mississippi Valley and into
the Great Lakes on Tuesday, widespread rainfall is expected
across the CWA for Tuesday into the first part of Tuesday night.
A few rumbles of thunder may be possible in the evening
depending on the strength of the system and associated forcing.
The low will then lift towards the Lower Great Lakes overnight,
which may lead to some breaks in the rain, or at least it
starting to transition to a more showery nature. It`s expected
to be quite mild for late November on Tuesday, with lowland
highs mostly in the low to mid 60s.

A potent northern stream system currently over the Northern
Rockies will shift east to the Upper Great Lakes Tuesday night
and Wednesday. As it does so, it will push a rather strong cold
front towards our area, which currently looks like it will pass
through between midday and the later afternoon hours. This will
keep showers possible across the CWA for much of the day on
Wednesday, before we dry out but turn quite gusty with the
passage of the front as cold air starts to pour into the region.
Highs on Wednesday will be very dependent on the speed of the
front pushing through the area, with an earlier passage making
for lower highs, and vice versa. As it stands currently, the
western part of the CWA would likely see their highs around or
before noon, while the front may not pass areas further east
until the first part of the afternoon. Showers should be largely
tapered off for lower elevations in the afternoon, but some
mountain and western upslope showers may linger into the
evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

There could be a few isolated rain and/or snow showers over the
central and northern mountains during the early overnight hours,
but that is all forecast to be cleared up by sunrise on
Thanksgiving. After temperatures plunge into the 20s for most of
the CWA overnight behind the front, cold advection on gusty
W-NW`ly winds will keep highs in the 30s to near 40 degrees for
the lowlands, with 20s and single-digit wind chills in the
mountains. Wind gusts in the lowlands of 20 to 30 mph may be
fairly widespread during the day on Thursday, slightly less both
Wednesday and Thursday nights. There is a good chance that we
will need a Wind Advisory for the northern mountains Wednesday
night, possibly persisting through Thursday night or posted
again that night as a separate advisory. The deterministic NBM
forecast currently does have wind gusts over 40kts both nights,
and the probabilistic NBM data is also over 50% on gusts
exceeding advisory threshold in the mountains.

Partly to mostly sunny skies are expected on Thanksgiving
across the central and southern parts of the CWA, but some
clouds may linger across the northern counties as we remain
under the influence of the upper-level trough over the Great
Lakes and eastern Canada. We will need to monitor for the
potential for low-level moisture to get trapped against the
northern mountains on the W-NW`ly winds. Were this to
materialize, it would keep the potential for light snow showers
to persist longer than expected over the northern mountains and
adjacent upslope regions. As some of the mesoscale models with
higher vertical resolution in the lower levels start to cover
that time range over the 24 hours, we should have a better idea
of the potential. The GFS and Canadian synoptic models are
already hinting at the potential.

Friday will be quite similar to Thanksgiving, with similar or
slightly colder high temps and clouds in the north but more
clearing down south. Winds will likely be a bit less gusty than
on Thanksgiving, but still adding a bit of bite to the cold
temperatures. High pressure sliding over the area Friday night
and Saturday will end any lingering light snow chances for the
mountains. Models start to diverge on the speed of precip from
the next system moving into the CWA, with some bringing showers
into SE Ohio by Saturday afternoon, but that seems like an
outlier scenario. Both the ECMWF and Canadian models would bring
rain to the CWA instead on Sunday or Sunday night, which is
where the NBM seems to be leaning currently. The GFS, ever
marching to the beat of its own drum, would hold off the rain
until Monday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 550 AM Monday...

Valley fog has become fairly extensive south of US-50, but PKB
and CKB have thus far stayed mostly in the clear, though both
satellites and observations indicate the fog is very close to
both. For areas impacted by the fog, IFR to LIFR conditions
will persist at least the first hour or two of the TAF period
before clearing between 13z and 15z. Once the fog and any
initially low cumulus or broken stratus fields clear, VFR
conditions are expected the rest of the TAF period. Winds will
remain light and variable through 00z for most of the area,
becoming gentle breezes from the southeast and south after 00z
as a warm front pushes north across the CWA.

Precip from the next system may start working into the region
from the west between 06z and 12z Tues, but for now only have a
mention for HTS, CRW, and PKB. However, ceilings will start
lowering towards low VFR levels (FL030-060) at all sites by the
end of the TAF period


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog this morning. Otherwise,
high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement to VFR this morning
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR possible in areas of rain Tuesday into Wednesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for WVZ005>008-
     013>016-018-024>030-033-034-515>521.
OH...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for OHZ086-087.
KY...Dense Fog Advisory until 10 AM EST this morning for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK