


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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335 FXUS61 KRLX 081744 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 144 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week, as a front wobbles in and out of the region. Some storms may contain locally very heavy rainfall. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 1143 AM Tuesday... No significant changes in the near term forecast period. Frontal boundary near Ohio River vcnty, will largely remain stationary today, before lifting back northwards Wednesday, as low pressure slowly nudges further north and east into the Great Lakes region. A warm, humid, and unstable airmass continues to remain in place, with observed PW values across most of the CWA generally 1.5 to 1.9 inches. Showers and storms will fire again, particularly this afternoon/evening during peak heating, and from passing weak waves. As previous forecaster indicated, models have trended with keeping the bulk of activity along/south of the Ohio River/south/along front, but activity can`t be ruled out anywhere. Although the bulk of the CWA remains in a general thunder, an isolated strong to severe can`t be ruled out, but an overall lack of significant shear should keep things from becoming organized. Heavy downpours will also be expected, and localized flooding could be an issue. Expect areas of fog again tonight, particularly in places that receive rain/storms today. On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will move back north of the area. Continued showers and storms across the region, some of which could be strong to severe with a damaging wind potential. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 1145 AM Tuesday... Showers and storms will increase in coverage mid to late week, as the potential exists for a surface low to move east through the area, and a more potent upper shortwave trough affects the area. Overall severe threat still looks to be on the low end during this period, but plenty of instability, and a slight uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe storm. Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat, but storms will have overall a little better movement than in the near term period. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 1145 AM Tuesday... Weather continues to remain unsettled in the extended period with uncertainty in details this far out. However, period looks to remain hot and humid, with area largely in the warm sector, with showers and storms possible from passing disturbances/heating. Continued convection/associated cloud cover should hopefully strive to keep temperatures and associated heat indices during the period below advisory criteria. && .AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 140 PM Tuesday... Areas of MVFR conditions/cigs remain across the area, mainly across NE KY and parts of WV. In addition, numerous showers and storms have developed, mainly NE KY, eastward through KCRW and KEKN, with brief IFR conditions in heavy downpours. Much of this convection will wane after 00-02Z, but widespread IFR/LIFR or worse fog is expected overnight, particularly south of the Ohio River. Any fog or low stratus should gradually improve to VFR after 13Z, with light surface winds, but, showers and storms will be on the increase again as the afternoon progresses. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of convection may vary from the forecast. Development and restrictions associated with fog and/or low stratus tonight could vary from what is currently forecast. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 EDT 1HRLY 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H M AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers and thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours, each day this week. IFR fog possible overnight. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SL NEAR TERM...SL SHORT TERM...SL LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...SL