335
FXUS61 KRLX 081744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
144 PM EDT Tue Jul 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and thunderstorms remain possible the rest of the week,
as a front wobbles in and out of the region. Some storms may
contain locally very heavy rainfall.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1143 AM Tuesday...

No significant changes in the near term forecast period. Frontal
boundary near Ohio River vcnty, will largely remain stationary
today, before lifting back northwards Wednesday, as low pressure
slowly nudges further north and east into the Great Lakes
region. A warm, humid, and unstable airmass continues to remain
in place, with observed PW values across most of the CWA
generally 1.5 to 1.9 inches. Showers and storms will fire again,
particularly this afternoon/evening during peak heating, and
from passing weak waves. As previous forecaster indicated,
models have trended with keeping the bulk of activity
along/south of the Ohio River/south/along front, but activity
can`t be ruled out anywhere. Although the bulk of the CWA
remains in a general thunder, an isolated strong to severe can`t
be ruled out, but an overall lack of significant shear should
keep things from becoming organized. Heavy downpours will also
be expected, and localized flooding could be an issue.

Expect areas of fog again tonight, particularly in places that
receive rain/storms today.

On Wednesday, the frontal boundary will move back north of the area.
Continued showers and storms across the region, some of which could
be strong to severe with a damaging wind potential.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1145 AM Tuesday...

Showers and storms will increase in coverage mid to late week,
as the potential exists for a surface low to move east through
the area, and a more potent upper shortwave trough affects the
area. Overall severe threat still looks to be on the low end
during this period, but plenty of instability, and a slight
uptick in shear could warrant an isolated strong to severe
storm. Heavy downpours will continue to be a threat, but storms
will have overall a little better movement than in the near term
period.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1145 AM Tuesday...

Weather continues to remain unsettled in the extended period with
uncertainty in details this far out. However, period looks to remain
hot and humid, with area largely in the warm sector, with showers
and storms possible from passing disturbances/heating. Continued
convection/associated cloud cover should hopefully strive to keep
temperatures and associated heat indices during the period below
advisory criteria.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Tuesday...

Areas of MVFR conditions/cigs remain across the area, mainly
across NE KY and parts of WV. In addition, numerous showers and
storms have developed, mainly NE KY, eastward through KCRW and
KEKN, with brief IFR conditions in heavy downpours.

Much of this convection will wane after 00-02Z, but widespread
IFR/LIFR or worse fog is expected overnight, particularly south
of the Ohio River.

Any fog or low stratus should gradually improve to VFR after
13Z, with light surface winds, but, showers and storms will be
on the increase again as the afternoon progresses.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and coverage of convection may vary
from the forecast. Development and restrictions associated with
fog and/or low stratus tonight could vary from what is
currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions possible under heavy showers and
thunderstorms, mainly during the afternoon and evening hours,
each day this week. IFR fog possible overnight.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL