930
FXUS61 KRLX 081904
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
204 PM EST Wed Jan 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Accumulating, mainly in the mountains through Thursday morning
with light snow showers or flurries elesewhere. Additional
chances for snow Friday night through the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 204 PM Wednesday...

Light snow showers continuing in northwesterly flow today, with
additional light accumulations at times, due to the overall light
fluffy nature/high snow ratio character of the snow. Expecting
another decent slug of snow showers late tonight, particularly
across northern zones, as a shortwave sags south across the
northeast. Have elected to upgrade the winter weather advisory to a
warning across the higher terrain for tonight, and expand the winter
weather advisory into Fayette county WV. In addition, with the
shortwave moving south into the area, bringing another shot of
colder air into the region, and gusty winds, particularly across the
mountains, elected to issue a cold weather advisory across most of
the higher terrain. In addition, issued a cold weather advisory for
parts of SE Ohio and NE KY, as there is the potential for at least
some partial clearing, and thus, bitter cold temperatures and below
zero wind chills, although confidence is not high.

On Thursday, gradual drying will occur throughout the day as upper
ridge starts to build in from the west. Will still see some flurries
at times for at least the first part of the day until the atmosphere
can dry out enough. It will still be quite cold across the area,
with high temperatures across the mountains only in the teens, with
20s in the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * Well below normal temperatures continue through Thursday
   night, creating further impacts for anyone still without
   power. Temperatures recover a bit late-week.

 * Attention turns to the next winter weather event, expected
   later Friday through Saturday.

 * Light to moderate snow expected area-wide, with several
   inches possible in the mountains and southern coalfields. At
   this time, NO freezing rain or sleet is anticipated.

A good portion of the area may still be seeing some flurries or
light snow showers at the start of the short-term, but this
quickly becomes confined to the mountains by mid-morning.
Soundings show the low-level moisture shallows out enough by
mid-afternoon that most if not all mountain flurries should be
wrapped up, though clouds may linger over and just west of the
mountains straight through Thursday night until the next system
arrives. It will remain gusty on the higher ridges on Thursday,
with gusts up to 40 mph possible, then calm down Thursday
evening and night.

The next system for Friday into Saturday looks to be a classic
Miller A storm initially, as it moves out of the Gulf of Mexico
and towards the eastern Carolinas. As such, we stay on the cold
side of the system, so we are not anticipating any freezing
rain or sleet with that round of wintry weather. Snow rolls in
from southwest to northeast Friday afternoon and evening, and
should be widespread across the CWA Friday night. There is a
chance precip may start as some rain/snow mix in some of the
valleys of the southern coalfields and into our SW Virginia
counties if they manage to sneak a few degrees above freezing
Friday afternoon, but any rain mix quickly shuts off by Friday
evening. Precip will start to diminish over SE Ohio late Friday
night, then gradually decrease in the rest of the lowlands
during the day on Saturday. By Saturday afternoon, any
appreciable accumulating snow may be confined to the mountains.

The northern fringe of these systems is always a bit difficult
to predict, as it depends a lot on how much moisture can get
drawn north by the upper-level trough over the Great Lakes. As
of right now, a first cut at QPF would see totals ranging from
under a quarter of an inch for most lowlands, and up to around a
third of an inch for many of the mountains and into the
southern coalfields and SW Virginia. Depending on snow ratios,
which should be north of 10- to-1, that may yield snow totals of
2 to 4 inches for much of the area, with some higher amounts in
the mountains and southern coalfields. So as it stands now,
more winter weather headlines may be needed for late Friday into
Saturday - with advisories seeming most likely, but a fair
amount of uncertainty remains at this lead time.

As far as temperatures in the short-term period go, Thursday
looks to be very cold even by mid-January standards, with highs
forecast to be 15 to 20 degrees below normal. That continues
into Thursday night, with lows also 15 to 20 degrees below
normal, mostly single digits above zero, but some low to mid
teens for the southern coalfields into SW Virginia. We may
rebound a bit on Friday, with highs ranging from the upper 20s
in SE Ohio to mid-30s in the far southern counties, but most
areas will then be a touch cooler on Saturday in the midst of
that snow event.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * After a brief break on Sunday, another snow event is possible
   next Monday into Tuesday.

 * Below average temps will continue into at least the middle
   part of next week.

Mountain snow showers may continue through most of Saturday
night, but eventually the moisture shallows out enough that even
the light upslope snow should mostly end by Sunday. Brief
surface high pressure and a transient upper-level ridge may
allow for a bit of sunshine to work into the area Sunday
afternoon. However, given the tendency of models to be overly
sunny in their sky cover outlook over the region this time of
year, I wouldn`t stake any money on that this far out. The
active weather pattern will continue, and we look to only get a
brief break for Sunday and Sunday night. Models are in broad
agreement on an upper- level trough bringing a weak clipper
system towards the area on Monday, with the potential for light
snow to continue into Tuesday as a second upper low spins its
way down from Canada and across the Great Lakes. However, due to
uncertainty on timing and moisture available to the system,
kept POPs at Chance or less for now.

After a frigid Saturday night, temperatures are forecast to
moderate a bit on Sunday, with highs ranging from the 20s in the
mountains to the low to mid-30s in most lower elevations.
Similar or slightly warmer temps are possible on Monday on SW`ly
breezes ahead of that next system, but an earlier onset of
precip would cut down those high temps. Could turn a bit colder
again heading towards the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

Widespread MVFR with temporary/localized IFR conditions in low
ceilings and reduced visibilities in snow showers. Overnight,
particularly between 00Z-12Z, expect additional snow showers,
some of which could be moderate across the northeast mountains
and north central WV, with a continuation of widespread MVFR
with local IFR/LIFR conditions in snow.

Bulk of snow shower activity will start to taper off after 12Z,
although occasional snow showers can be expected to linger
through the remainder of the TAF period, with brief MVFR/IFR
restrictions.

Some improvement to VFR is expected mainly across parts of NE
KY and SE Ohio after 14Z, but bulk of TAF sites should generally
remain MVFR in low ceilings or low ceilings/light snow showers.

In addition, gusty westerly winds will develop , with occasional
gusts in the teens across the lowlands, and in the 20 to 30 kt
range across the higher terrain.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of snow showers and
associated restrictions may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR in snow and low ceilings expected Friday night through
Saturday night, possibly into early Sunday along the higher
terrain.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until noon EST Thursday for WVZ039-040-
     517>521-525.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 8 PM this evening to 11 AM EST
     Thursday for WVZ516-518-520-522-525.
     Winter Storm Warning until noon EST Thursday for WVZ522-523-
     526.
     Cold Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST Thursday for WVZ523-526.
OH...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
     Thursday for OHZ083-087.
KY...Cold Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EST
     Thursday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...SL