301
FXUS61 KRLX 221817
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
117 PM EST Sat Nov 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain ends today, then dry through the weekend. A low pressure system
tracks into the Great Lakes Tuesday into Wednesday bringing
rain, followed by a significantly colder air mass for Thanksgiving.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 740 AM Saturday...

Made a quick update to PoPs through the morning to represent the
latest trends. Overall, the surface boundary is just now
exiting the CWA, taking with it the steady light/moderate rain
that remains over the SE CWA over the next hour or so. Following
this, ISO light showers are possible through the morning as the
associated shortwave quickly pivots through, with activity
gradually becoming confined to the higher terrain as time goes
on, where a few ISO showers could linger into the afternoon. The
rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 120 AM Saturday...

A quasi-stationary boundary remains draped across the forecast
area early this morning, maintaining widespread low clouds and
areas of light rain or drizzle.

This boundary is expected to begin shifting slowly southeastward
over the next several hours, exiting the forecast area shortly
after daybreak. As the boundary departs, large-scale lift will
diminish, causing measurable precipitation to end from northwest
to southeast. However, continued weak northwesterly flow at the
surface, coupled with residual low-level moisture banked against
the terrain, will likely keep drizzle and low clouds persisting
along the windward slopes of the mountains through this
afternoon.

As high pressure begins to build in from the west later today,
some clearing can be expected across our northwestern counties,
but large scale improvement in cloud cover may take until this
evening. Tonight, with high pressure settling overhead and skies
clearing, radiational cooling will allow temperatures to drop
into the 30s and 40s. This setup typically favors the formation
of river valley fog, particularly given the recent rainfall, but
this will be somewhat contingent on how quickly remnant low
level cloudiness can clear.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

High pressure and dry weather will dominate this period as an
upper-level split flow pattern develops. Sunday will feature the
passage of a weak, moisture-starved reinforcing cold front. This
feature is expected to cross the region dry, serving mainly to
reinforce the seasonable air mass and perhaps generate a few
transient clouds.

Monday remains dry as the surface high shifts eastward.
Temperatures will moderate, with highs climbing back into the
60s across the lowlands as return flow establishes ahead of the
next system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 120 AM Saturday...

The next significant chance for precipitation arrives early to
mid-week. A pair of disturbances is progged to emerge from the
Rockies, with consensus shifting toward the southern stream
disturbance being the primary driver for local weather.
Numerical guidance, excluding the operational GFS, suggests a
lee low will form and maintain connection with upper-level
support, tracking into the Upper Great Lakes by Tuesday
afternoon.

The atmospheric response to this low track includes the
development of a 40-50KT low-level jet at H850, with its nose
oriented across the Middle Ohio Valley by Tuesday morning. While
instability looks to be limited to nil, limited much of a
thunder threat, strong low-level mass convergence, moisture
advection, and isentropic lift driven by the LLJ should be
sufficient to produce widespread light rain starting Tuesday
morning and continuing into Tuesday evening.

A cold front will cross the region Tuesday night into Wednesday.
While this feature will squeeze out additional precipitation,
total rainfall amounts appear modest. In the wake of the front,
parcel trajectories appear more westerly than previously
forecast. These trajectories should keep the bulk of lake-
enhanced moisture to the north of the forecast area during the
day on Thanksgiving.

The primary story for the latter half of the week will be the
temperature change. Following the cold frontal passage Wednesday
night, a significantly colder air mass will advect into the
region. High temperatures on Thanksgiving Day are expected to
struggle to exit the 40s, with lows dropping well into the 20s
and 30s. Dry but chilly conditions will persist into Friday as
high pressure settles over the region.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 205 PM Saturday...

A few ISOLD showers or patchy drizzle is possible this afternoon
in/near the mountains, potentially affecting BKW/EKN over the
next hour or so, but not expecting any VSBY restrictions.
Otherwise, widespread MVFR CIGs at present will gradually return
to VFR across the far north (PKB), while potentially lingering
further south through the evening (CKB/CRW/HTS), and even
through much of the night at BKW/EKN, where brief IFR could even
occur. Where clearing does occur this evening and tonight, some
fog development is anticipated, but given some low clouds
lingering around, confidence in MVFR/IFR fog is low, with the
`greatest` potential being at CKB/HTS/PKB and perhaps CRW, while
cloud cover at BKW/EKN should prevent fog development. Increased
low-level flow later tonight may gradually mix out fog that has
developed across northern locations as the night progresses.
Otherwise, fog should quickly lift/dissipate by ~13Z. VFR then
persists through the end of the TAF period save the potential
for very brief MVFR stratocu at CKB/EKN late morning and early
afternoon.

Light northwest flow this afternoon will go light and variable
or calm overnight. WSW to W flow develops Sunday morning into
the afternoon. Gusts of 15-25 kts are possible at all terminals
save HTS, with gusts of 25-35 kts possible in the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low tonight with fog/stratus, medium otherwise.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CIG restrictions today and tonight may vary
from the forecast. Fog development tonight may be less than
currently forecast. Brief MVFR is possible late Sunday morning
into Sunday afternoon at CKB/EKN with stratocu.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EST 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions are possible with valley fog Monday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP/GW
NEAR TERM...JP/GW
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...GW