232
FXUS61 KRLX 080725
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
225 AM EST Mon Dec 8 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure passes south of the area today, bringing snow,
mainly southeast of the OH River. Dry and warmer Tuesday.
Turning colder with passing clippers Wednesday thru end week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Monday...

Key Points:

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect for portions of NE KY,
  portions of SE OH, and central and southern WV until 5 PM.

* Winter Weather Advisory in effect for portions of SW VA, central,
  southern, northeast and southeast WV until 9 PM.

An upper level shortwave moves just south of our area, and then
lifts northeast into the Mid Atlantic states overnight into Monday
morning. This feature will bring precipitation starting as rain/snow
mix overnight, transitioning into all snow by early Monday morning.
A northern stream shortwave shortly follows this afternoon, keeping
snowfall mainly across the south and east of our CWA into this
evening.

A non diurnal trend in temperatures is expected today with highs
occurring during the early morning hours, then dropping into
the 20s through the afternoon. These sub-freezing temperatures
will allow for snow accumulations from 2 to 4 inches from the
Kanawha Metro area, east into the eastern mountains. Lesser snow
amounts can be expected across portions of SE Ohio, NE Kentucky
and northern WV.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect portions of NE KY,
portions of SE OH, and central, southern and western WV until 5
PM, and for portions of SW VA, central, southern, northeast and
southeast WV until 9 PM Monday evening. The snowfall is
expected to end this evening as the upper shortwaves moves out
of the area.

These snow amounts and the drop in temperatures into the 20s will
provide for hazardous driving conditions during the Monday morning
and evening commute. During the morning commute, snow may initially
melt on account of the mild weather yesterday, but will refreeze
through the afternoon hours.

Highs will occur during the early morning hours, perhaps at or below
the freezing mark, dropping into the 20s across the lowlands, and
into the teens northeast mountains by this evening. Lows tonight
will range from the low to mid 20s across the warm wedge area,
ranging into the teens along and west of the OH River, and northeast
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 222 AM Monday...

Key Point:

* Strong gusty winds expected Wednesday. Wind headlines may be
  required.

High pressure builds across the area Monday night and Tuesday
providing dry weather conditions into Tuesday night.

Highs on Tuesday will generally be in the mid to lower 40s across
the lowlands, ranging into the upper 20s northeast mountains
under mostly cloudy skies. Lows Tuesday night will not be as
cold as previous nights, generally in the mid 30s lowlands,
ranging into the mid 20s northeast mountains.

A warm front lifts north of the area Tuesday night. Pressure
gradient tightens up ahead of the approaching cold front with a good
return flow on Wednesday resulting in strong gusty winds, and
temperatures warming approximately 10 degrees compared to that of
Monday. Wind headlines may be required for Wednesday into
Wednesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 222 AM Monday...

A series of clipper systems will affect the region from
Wednesday through the end of the week. The first system is
expected to track south of the area on Wednesday, bringing
initial rain that will transition to all snow by Wednesday
evening. Northwest flow behind this system will support
additional upslope snow across higher elevations Wednesday night
into Thursday morning.

A second shortwave will pass just to the north on Thursday,
reinforcing the cold air mass and maintaining chances for
areawide snow showers. While model guidance shows some timing
discrepancies regarding a third shortwave arriving Friday night
into Saturday, confidence is high that temperatures will support
all snow.

A distinct cooling trend is expected. Highs on Thursday will
reach the mid 30s in the lowlands, ranging into the lower 20s
in the northeast mountains. Significantly colder air arrives by
Saturday, dropping highs to the low-to-mid 20s in the lowlands,
and into the teens or single digits across the mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1225 AM Monday...

Current VFR conditions are expected to deteriorate to MVFR
overnight as an approaching snowstorm impacts the region.
Precipitation may initially develop as a rain/snow mix at
southern terminals but will transition to all snow as
temperatures fall below freezing.

Visibilities will drop to MVFR/IFR at the onset of precipitation,
worsening to IFR/LIFR across the West Virginia southern
coalfields and the central/southern mountains by 15Z. Conditions
are expected to improve later this evening across the eastern
mountains as snowfall tapers off. Winds will remain light out of
the northeast overnight, becoming gusty Monday morning before
diminishing again by the afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions
associated with stratocumulus and snow may vary from the
forecast, with longer and lower restrictions possible.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 12/08/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EST 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    L    M    L    M    M    M    L    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    L

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in stratus Monday night and Tuesday
morning in and near the mountains, and Tuesday morning over the
middle Ohio Valley. IFR conditions are possible area-wide
Wednesday night through Thursday in a rain to rain/snow mix, and
then in mainly snow by Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ005-006-013-014-016-018.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for WVZ015-
     024>028-033-034-515>524-526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 PM EST this afternoon for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Winter Weather Advisory until 9 PM EST this evening for VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ