334
FXUS61 KRLX 061442
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1042 AM EDT Sun Apr 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Light to moderate rainfall lingers over the region today into
tonight with some additional flooding possible. Much colder
heading into the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1040 AM Sunday...

Overnight heavier bands of precipitation have shifted eastward
this morning, so trimmed down POPs some with this update. Radar
trends depict another wave of heavier showers down in Tennessee
that could stretch into our coalfields here in the next few
hours. Convective potential has lessened today, so opted to
remove any mentioning of thunder with this update as well.

As of 600 AM Sunday...

No significant changes required at this time. Meso models
continue to trend farther south with the moisture plume and this
looks like it may keep any heavier showers out of the bulk of
our southern zones this afternoon. For the remainder of the
area, rain remains generally light with some pockets of moderate
with between a quarter and a half inch of rain fallen over the
last 6 hours. Responses in smaller creeks and streams have been
fairly modest so far - may be able to let the flood watch go
early, but will leave that up to the day shift.

As of 340 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

* Continued light to moderate rain over sensitive soils may yield
  additional flooding issues through this evening

* Locally heavier rain across our far south could also yield some
  minor water issues despite drier antecedent conditions

Ascent associated with the right rear quadrant of an expansive
shared energy jet slowly approaches from the west this morning. This
should yield an uptick in rainfall rates, but in the absence of the
previously expected mass convergence/moist transport associated with
an H850 low level jet that has been shunted farther south, rainfall
rates should remain on the light to moderate side, generally a tenth
to two tenths per hour with some embedded locally higher amounts.
With the sensitivity of soils given recent rainfall will likely see
at least some minor issues reemerge with the added rainfall, but
generally think any risk of additional flash flooding will be
minimized.

The better core of the moist plume makes its way up toward our far
southern zones this afternoon as this ascent continues, and this may
yield some higher rates here late this afternoon into this evening,
perhaps further enhanced by thunderstorms rooted in weak elevated
instability. Locations here have seen significantly less rain than
others in the past few days, but could still see some minor flooding
issues with localized rainfall totals potentially reaching up
towards 2 inches. Given the lack of recent rainfall for these
locations, do not see a compelling reason for expansion of the
existing flood watch that expires Sunday evening.

With the region largely mired in low cloud behind initial cold
frontal passage, daytime highs will be generally in the upper 40s to
mid 50s from the north to the Metro Valley, while some resurgence of
the aforementioned low level jet across the south should yield highs
in the 60s.

Should largely see precipitation exit east late during the overnight
tonight into early Monday morning with much cooler and drier air
settling into the region from the north. Lows Monday morning across
the lower elevations will range from the mid 30s across the north to
upper 30s/lower 40s across the south.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

This period brings a welcome reprieve from all of the unsettled
weather of late, albeit chilly.

Rain exits the mountains first thing Monday morning, and low clouds
break from northwest to southeast Monday morning into Monday
afternoon, all as surface high pressure behind the cold front
crossing this weekend briefly ridges in from the southwest.

A northern stream short wave trough digs into the Great Lakes and
northeastern states Monday and Monday night, nudging the southern
stream short feeding all the unsettled weather this weekend, through
the area by Monday evening. The cold front associated with the
northern stream short wave may brings anafront rain showers into
northwest portions of the forecast area by Monday evening as it
crosses, that may change to snow showers before ending across
northern and central portions of the area Monday night, as the short
wave then crosses. High pressure then brings a chilly and welcome
but brief dry stretch overnight Monday night through Wednesday.

Temperatures top out 5 to 10 degrees below normal on Monday, with
another cold front on the way in. Behind that front, temperatures
bottom out in the 20s Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. With the
frost/freeze program beginning for the central and southern
lowlands, a hard freeze, as well as frost, appear likely. Highs top
out close to 20 degrees below normal on Tuesday, in the 40s, 30s
over the higher terrain.

Relative humidity percentages are likely to bottom out in the
upper 20s to lower 30s Tuesday and Wednesday afternoons. It will
become breezy behind the cold front Monday night, and then
remain so on Tuesday, but, as mentioned, highs will only be in
the 40s across the lower elevations. It will be milder
Wednesday afternoon, with the low elevation highs in the 50s,
but with light wind.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 305 AM Sunday...

A mid/upper-level low digs into the eastern U.S. during the latter
portion of next week, bringing the chance for rain showers starting
as early as overnight Wednesday night, as the associated
surface cold front approaches. Rain showers are likely Thursday
into Thursday night, as the cold front nears, and then pushes
on through, and then even Friday, as a wave of low pressure
moves up along the front east of the forecast area, and the
mid/upper- level low approaches.

With limited Gulf inflow ahead of it, this does not look like a
heavy rain setup. A thunderstorm is not out of the question ahead of
the cold front Thursday afternoon or evening, or with the April sun
heating the ground beneath the cold air aloft Friday afternoon.
Model timing then diverges on the system pushing out in time to
allow high pressure, with dry weather, to build in next
weekend, or not. Showers that do occur next weekend may take on
diurnal timing with the mid/upper-level low nearby.

Temperatures moderate through midweek, before leveling off as the
next system crosses late week, with shrinking diurnal ranges within
the system, close to normal on highs and a bit above normal on lows
by then. Ranges then open up next weekend, with lows and highs near
normal.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 600 AM Sunday...

Generally IFR or worse ceilings persist through this TAF period
with the region mired in northwesterly flow at the surface with
a stream of moisture coming up from the south overrunning.
Precipitation will be generally light, with some pockets of
moderate activity this morning, and again this afternoon, mainly
across the south. Visibilities will be highly variable in
pockets of mist and with any heavier showers. Overnight tonight,
very low stratus or fog will develop as a shallow cold air mass
plows into the resident warm and moist airmass.

Winds generally light and favoring a northerly direction, but may be
a little gusty and erratic near any heavier showers, especially this
afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Visibility will be highly variable in
patchy fog and heavier showers through the day. May see a mix of
fog and very low stratus tonight as a shallow cold air mass
invades.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions slowly improve to VFR Monday morning. After
which, no widespread IFR conditions ar forecast.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040-517-519>522-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...MEK/JP
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP