690
FXUS61 KRLX 300721
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
321 AM EDT Mon Sep 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain chances continue as the remnants of Helene traverse the
area into Tuesday. A cold front brings additional rain Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Drier weather expected to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 235 AM Monday...

Key Points:

  * Rounds of showers linger over northern and eastern WV this
    morning, and will spread across the rest of the area today.

  * There remains a small risk for flash flooding in and near
    the mountains, if impacted by any heavier rain or
    thunderstorms.

The remnants of Helene will continue to impact the region
through the near term period, with the center of circulation
still lingering north of Nashville near the KY/TN border. The
circulation will slowly meander ENE towards towards and across
the region later today and tonight. This results in scattered
showers across the region throughout the period amid broad
synoptic-scale ascent with the Helene remnants positioned to
the west and southwest. We could also see a few embedded or
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon evening. Showers mostly
confined in/near the mountains and over the northern tier of the
CWA overnight will see coverage expand across the rest of the
area during the day and evening.

The main concern throughout the near term period will be the
potential for some localized flash flooding given recent heavy
rainfall across the area. Cloud layer mean flow depicted in
forecast soundings continues to be quite light (generally <10
kts), resulting in a slow movement of shower activity across the
area. An isolated instance or two of flash flooding could occur
given any training of showers, with the greatest threat in/near
the northern mountains where some higher-end solutions show that
1-2" of rain is possible. Given such, did discuss a Flood Watch
for portions of the higher terrain with neighboring WFOs, who
have higher forecast rain totals for today and tonight across
portions of VA and the eastern Panhandle. However, at this time,
we will not be issuing a Flash Flood Watch for any of our zones,
due to some inconsistencies in the CAM guidance. But we will
evaluate future model data and do not rule it out.

Otherwise, the period will feature mostly cloudy to overcast
skies and slightly below normal daytime temperatures (low to mid
70s in the lowlands). Overnight fog should clear during the
morning, and areas low stratus will lift a bit during the day.
Lows tonight (low 50s in the mountains to mid-60s in the
lowlands) will be above normal given extensive cloud cover. Some
more patchy fog is possible again tonight, especially if some
breaks in the clouds develop as shown by some guidance. Winds
will remain light and somewhat variable throughout the period,
though during the afternoon today, most should see gentle
sustained winds from the east and northeast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday...

Low pressure and stationary boundary look to be overhead Tuesday
morning allowing rain chances to stay in the forecast to open up the
short-term. A cold front will then approach from the west and move
through late Tuesday.

Precipitation chances will remain across the area into
Wednesday as a result, but will gradually be tapering off west
to east throughout the morning becoming confined to the
mountains during the day. Skies will be mostly cloudy on
Tuesday, but expect stark clearing from west to east Wednesday
afternoon behind the cold front as high pressure builds in.

Temperatures will be around normal on Tuesday (lowlands-Low to upper
70s; mountains-lower 60s to mid 70s). Temperatures will be cooler
behind the cold front starting Tuesday night/ Wednesday morning
where the low temperatures will be in the 50s and lower 60s across
the area. Wednesday`s high temperatures will be in the lower to mid
70s across the lowlands. The mountains will stay in the 60s to the
lower 70s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 320 AM Monday ...

High pressure will be overhead on Thursday with drier and warmer
weather under mostly clear skies. High temperatures will be around
80 for some on Thursday and lower 80s will be common across the
lowlands on Friday.

A secondary drier cold front drops south and through the area on
Friday. Canadian high pressure will fill in behind it and cooler
temperatures will move in for the weekend as a result. Overnight
lows could drop into the 40s Saturday and Sunday nights.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 AM Monday...

Areas of showers are noted over the northeastern part of the
CWA, impacting EKN and (intermittently) CKB. Low stratus and
areas of fog are noted elsewhere across the lowlands, with HTS
and CRW socked in, and PKB flirting with at least lower
ceilings. CKB and EKN may steer clear of the lower ceilings
initially due to the precip, but they may go down into MVFR or
IFR ceilings before sunrise, and may also see VSBY restrictions
in rain or mist. Fog should clear by mid-morning, but MVFR low
stratus may hang on through most or all of the day for most of
the TAF sites thanks to the abundant moisture across the region.
Any heavier showers or isolated thunderstorms during the period
could also reduce visibility. Winds are forecast to remain light
through the TAF period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of precipitation and
deteriorating conditions may vary from the forecast. Timing of
fog and low stratus development and improvement remains quite
uncertain across the area.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 09/30/24
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EDT 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in showers and/or low stratus into
Tuesday morning. With more fog and/or low stratus possible again
Tuesday night and Wednesday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/LTC
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...FK