750
FXUS61 KRLX 162345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
745 PM EDT Fri May 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Rounds of strong to severe storms expected today through
tonight. Cold front crosses Saturday. Quieter to finish the
weekend, then unsettled pattern returns next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 740 PM Friday...

A tornado watch has been issued for the western half of the CWA
until 3am. The forecast remains the same and no significant
changes were made at this time. As the activity gets close to
our area the remaining half of our area will likely see a watch
as well.

As of 351 PM Friday...

Elected to let the watch go and cancelled it as all the
thunderstorm activity is now east of the area. Gusty winds can
still be a factor as well as some stratiform rain until they
move out as well.

As of 310 PM Friday...

The severe thunderstorm watch has been allowed to be canceled in
our KY counties, as well as Wayne and Lincoln in WV. The
strongest convection is currently across the southern
mountains and coalfields and it has moved out of these counties.
Still anticipating another round of severe weather later this
evening with a line of storms that will form.

As of 214 PM Friday...

Put up a wind advisory across the higher elevations of Randolph
and Pocahontas from 10 AM Saturday until 2 AM Sunday. Models are
showing fairly strong post-frontal flow that will move in early
Saturday morning. Gusts between 45 and 50 MPH are possible
across the higher elevation zones.

As of 1235 PM Friday...

Currently have some thunderstorms to our southwest in eastern KY
that are moving into the severe storm/flash flood watch area.
There is a fairly sturdy (-50 to -75 CINH) mixed-layer cap that
has formed over the lowlands which is showing some signs of
disrupting these storms as they surge deeper into our forecast
area. Damaging winds, hail, and the chance for an isolated
tornado are the hazards of concern. Despite the cap,
instability and lapse rates are on the stronger side with SBCAPE
between 2,000 and 3,000 J/kg. Effective shear is very strong
with values between 50-65 kts, which will lead to some rotating
storms this afternoon.

Convective models are keeping the trend of training these
storms over the southern coalfields/mountains, so flash flooding
concerns are elevated through the afternoon, hence the flash
flood watch. 1-hr FFG is around an inch to an inch and a half in
spots with 3-hr FFG only slightly higher.

HREF/HRRR are still in agreement with bringing in a well
developed, stronger line of storms that will move in from the
west between 7 PM and 9 PM, subsequently moving across the
forecast area west to east. The greatest wind threat will
reside in this system where prob wind statistics show 60 - 70
MPH gusts could be possible if this line if it manifests as the
CAMs are suggesting. Further flash flood concerns will linger
into the night with models showing the southern, upshear
portion of the line moving over the counties currently outlooked
with the flash flood watch, which will be receiving repeated
rounds of heavy rainfall this afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

Outside of a few isolated showers early Saturday night, dry
weather is expected through the short term period as weak upper
level ridging builds into the region. Gusty winds early Saturday
night across the lowlands will quickly diminish, while
persisting across the highest terrain into the day on Sunday
(generally 30-40 mph). Sunday will feature a fair amount of
sunshine with high temperatures in the mid/upper 70s across the
lowlands, with 60s in the mountains. Lows Saturday and Sunday
night will generally be in the 50s across the lowlands, with mid
40s to low 50s in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 245 PM Friday...

A return of unsettled weather is expected for the new work week
courtesy of a slow-moving disturbance progged to impact the
area. The chance for ISO/SCT showers/storms returns on Monday
and Monday night as an associated warm front lifts north towards
the area, with the best chance for rain being the south/central
portions of the CWA. More widespread showers/storms return
Tuesday/Wednesday/Thursday as low pressure slowly
approaches/crosses the region, with a general drying trend
expected late Thursday into Friday. Given recent rainfall, some
hydro concerns are certainly possible as the week goes on.
Temperatures are progged to be near normal or slightly below
throughout the period, with the chillest day expected to be
Thursday as an upper trough builds into the region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

VFR conditions turn to MVFR with temporary conditions of IFR
under heavy thunderstorm showers as a broken line of storms
heads our way tonight. For the western sites, anywhere from 3Z
to 6Z there will be active weather with possible strong to
severe thunderstorms traveling very fast through those site
areas. They will likely see very strong gusts along the outflow
boundaries and in the vicinity where storms pass by. Heavy
downpours will drop VIS down to IFR at times. Once the activity
is through those sites winds will stay elevated with gusts near
30kts along with VFR conditions behind the line.

The eastern sites will be next to get hit with strong to severe
wind gusts along with IFR VIS under heavy thunderstorm showers
from around 4Z to 9Z with CKB/EKN possibly a few hours later.
Once that activity passes by VIS/CIGs will lift back to VFR,
however windy conditons will continue through the period with
gust up to 30kts. Worst case, CIG heights will hover around
MVFR and VIS could get down to below IFR if a shower is heavy
enough. Wind shear will not be a factor since surface flow will
be elevated, however if the surface flow weakens temporarily then
wind shear will become a factor and this goes for most sites.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of thunderstorms may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 05/17/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    L    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions in heavy rain and thunderstorms could develop by
late Tuesday and continue at times into Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for WVZ005>007-013>015-
     024>026-033-034-515>518.
     Wind Advisory from 10 AM Saturday to 2 AM EDT Sunday for
     WVZ523-526.
OH...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for OHZ086-087.
KY...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Flood Watch until 4 AM EDT Saturday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW/LTC
NEAR TERM...JZ/LTC
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...JZ