770
FXUS61 KRLX 052341
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
741 PM EDT Tue Aug 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Isolated shower and storm chances persist this week and into
the weekend. Temperatures will also gradually increase through
the week alongside rising humidity.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1142 AM Tuesday...

A large area of high pressure will remain locked over the Atlantic
the next few days, keeping conditions in southeast Ohio, northeast
Kentucky, and the northern West Virginia lowlands mostly dry.
However, weak energy rotating around the periphery of this high
will act as the primary trigger for daily showers and
thunderstorms in the West Virginia mountains southwest Virginia.
Due to very weak instability, there is very little potential
for any of this activity to become severe.

The air will feel quite pleasant for today and Wednesday. High
temperatures are expected to reach the 70s across the mountains,
with the lowlands warming into the lower 80s. The air may feel
slightly more humid than previous days with dew points in the middle
60s. However, it will still feel much less humid than this time last
week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1142 AM Tuesday...

The established weather pattern is set to continue from Thursday
into the weekend, featuring mainly dry conditions for southeast Ohio
and north-central West Virginia. While most of the shower and
thunderstorm activity will once again be confined to the mountains,
a small chance exists for a storm to drift into portions of the West
Virginia lowlands or northeast Kentucky.

A strengthening high-pressure system will lead to a gradual warming
trend as the week progresses into the weekend. By Friday, high
temperatures across the lowlands are expected to climb into the
upper 80s. This building heat will also be accompanied by
increasingly humid conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1146 AM Tuesday...

Looking ahead from this weekend into early next week, the general
pattern of summerlike heat and humidity with afternoon storms
primarily confined to the mountains is expected to persist. We are
keeping an eye on a tropical wave located over the Carolina
coastline that could potentially develop sometime this weekend or
early in the next week. Current models suggest this system will not
directly affect the central Appalachians, but it remains a feature
worth watching. The National Hurricane Center currently shows a
40% chance of development within the next 7 days.

Additionally, models indicate that another cold front may approach
the area from the west early next week. However, there is still
some inconsistency regarding the timing and specific impacts of
this feature this far out.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 730 PM Tuesday...

Overall, VFR conditions should be the rule across the region for
this TAF period. Broken mid-level and/or high clouds tonight
should become a bit more scattered for most of the area
tomorrow. Expect some low-level cumulus or stratocu to develop
from midday onward, with some mid-level clouds lingering,
especially over the southeastern part of the CWA. Tonight will
be yet another round of "Will it or won`t it fog at EKN?". For
now we show a brief 3.5 hour period of LIFR conditions, but
given the lingering cloud cover expected tonight, it is not a
slam dunk that it will fog.

More gentle E-SE`ly breezes are expected again tomorrow
afternoon, and the breezes will persist through the period over
the higher ridges, where some gusts up to 15kts will also be
possible. A few showers or storms are possible across the
southwestern part of the area tomorrow - potentially affecting
HTS, BKW, and perhaps CRW, but probabilities were low enough at
this time that no PROB30 group was included.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of fog development late
tonight may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 08/06/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
Widespread IFR conditions are not anticipated at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JMC
NEAR TERM...JMC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...FK