256
FXUS61 KRLX 030615
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
215 AM EDT Thu Jul 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry, but increasingly hot through the holiday weekend. Chances
of precipitation return early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

Most ground conditions, light winds and mainly clear skies will
allow for valley fog formation again this morning - will monitor
trends to evaluate need for a fog SPS for the morning commute over
the next few hours. Any fog that does develop should dissipate/lift
through around 9 AM this morning.

Largely quiet weather is expected through the day as a weak and
mainly dry backdoor cold front slowly sinks south toward our
northern border, arriving early this evening. Couldn`t rule out a
stray shower with this feature and will include a few hours of
isolated coverage prior to any limited instability being lost late
this afternoon into this evening.

Aforementioned front should sail south of the area well prior to
daybreak, setting up another valley fog morning with surface high
pressure stationed overhead Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

H500 heights build through the holiday weekend with a corresponding
response in surface temperatures. Central guidance has trended
slightly cooler, converging toward a more realistic solution.
Despite strong evapotranspiration, central guidance afternoon mixed
dew points likely remain a couple degrees too high, but this will
not significantly affect messaging with heat indices remaining under
criteria despite slightly warmer/wetter guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

Central guidance has continued to slow the eventual approach of a
cold front associated with a low amplitude mid-level wave for early
next week, now slated to arrive during the day Monday. This timing
could yield an approach during a maxima of instability
associated with diurnal heating however deep layer shear appears
minimal with a resultant relatively low risk of severe weather.

The pattern is expected to remain relatively high zonal through
the middle of next week with embedded shortwaves in the flow
keeping weather somewhat active.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Valley fog is already evident on satellite imagery and coverage
will continue to expand into daybreak. IFR impacts are likely at
all terminals. Conditions improve to VFR by 13-14Z.

Winds remain relatively light, with a northwesterly wind shift
expected this afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High, medium with fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of fog could vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                        THU 07/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
EDT 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in patchy valley fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP