097
FXUS61 KRLX 121430
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1030 AM EDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very mild and mainly dry through the end of the work week. A
strong low pressure system will impact the area this weekend,
with strong, heavy thunderstorms possible.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON/...
As of 1030 AM Wednesday...

Made some minor adjustments to sky cover based on the latest
satellite trends.


As of 620 AM Wednesday...

Tweaked temperatures this morning to better reflect a 20-30
degree ridge/valley split. Otherwise forecast was on track. As
previously mentioned, did issue a fire danger statement for the
entire CWA for this afternoon.

As of 215 AM Wednesday...

A dry cold front associated with surface low pressure in the
Canadian Maritimes appears to be stationed in the vicinity of US-50
this morning and should continue to make slow progress to the south
to around the Metro Valley by daybreak. As the low continues to
shift east and surface high pressure settles into the St
Lawrence Valley, should see this feature quickly shunted back
to the north with increasing southwesterly flow this afternoon.
Other than wildfire concerns, which will be addressed below,
should be a fantastic day with highs rising into the upper 70s,
perhaps touching 80 in a couple spots. For reference, the normal
high for this time of the year for Charleston is 57. Despite
the unseasonably mild weather, no high temperature records are
at risk. Did bump temperatures values up a few degrees over
central guidance with it slow to pickup on dry ground conditions
and the changing of seasons.

As far as fire weather concerns, minimum RH values should be a
little higher and a little more predictable today with the absence
of a substantially drier layer at the top of the mixed layer that we
got into yesterday. Afternoon RH values will generally be in the
upper teens to lower 20s across the WV lowlands, SW Virginia, mid to
upper 20s across SE Ohio, and upper 20s to mid 30s across the WV
mountains. Winds are generally expected to be a bit lighter, 8-12
mph with gusts to around 18-25 mph. With several fires already
burning across the south and a third day of critically dry RH and
breezy conditions will go ahead and hoist another fire danger
statement for all zones.

&&

.SHORT TERM /2 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 340 AM Wednesday...

In a split flow regime, a weak southern stream system tracks south
of the area Thursday. With the confluence zone between the southern
and northern streams drifting north of the area Thursday, along with
weak low/mid-level warm advection, the dry weather of late may
be interrupted, with a low chance for showers.

There can also be a thunderstorm, but the threat is low, and
the Storm Prediction Center has removed the general thunder
outlook in northeast Kentucky Thursday afternoon, where model
soundings continue to portray mid/upper-level moisture over low
level dry air, the reverse of the more favorable low level
moisture beneath dry air aloft setup. This leads to narrow if
any CAPE amid light to moderate low/mid-level flow. The forecast
vertical moisture distribution is more favorable farther east.

Afternoon relative humidity percentages bottom out in the 30s
Thursday, higher than recent afternoons including today. Shower
coverage will be too spotty to dampen fire potential
significantly, but light winds will keep the threat minimal.

Light south to southeast low level flow Thursday through Thursday
night strengthens Friday through Friday night, in a tightening
pressure gradient between exiting high pressure, and a large,
intense, fully phased low pressure system approaching from the west.
This maintains well above normal temperatures while transporting
Gulf moisture into the forecast area. Even with dew points in the
40s Friday, temperatures pushing 80 degrees across portions of
the lowlands will again result in minimum afternoon relative
humidity percentages in the 30s. This could, to a degree, re-
ignite fire weather concerns on Friday.

Showers and thunderstorms can arrive from the west by dawn
Saturday, as suggested by the Storm Prediction Center Day 2
outlook, which also shows a mammoth severe weather threat area
up and down the Mississippi Valley, including an enhanced level
threat.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 415 AM Wednesday...

The fully phased system that approaches Friday, pulls its cold
front through the area as it tracks northeastward through the
Great Lakes Sunday. With ample access to Gulf moisture, this
system brings a much better chance for showers and thunderstorms
Saturday into Sunday, along with strong, gusty winds.

Global models continue to portray two mid/upper-level short
wave troughs associated with this large system, one pivoting
northeastward northwest of the forecast area, likely bringing a
dying line of convection from Friday night, across the
forecast area Saturday morning, possibly beginning by dawn, as
suggested by the Storm Prediction Center Day 2 outlook. After a
possible break midday Saturday into Saturday afternoon, the
second short wave trough crosses the forecast area Saturday
night and Sunday.

Central guidance reflects this with showers likely and
thunderstorms possible Saturday morning, followed by a dip in
coverage/probability which was enhanced a bit, before coverage
becomes widespread for Saturday night into Sunday. Depending
upon the timing of even smaller waves within the larger second
short wave, there could be a widespread soaking rain Saturday
night into Sunday morning, before shower coverage decreases from
west to east the balance of Sunday, as the cold front crosses.

The chance for thunderstorms increases Saturday, and then
gradually diminishes Saturday night, but thunderstorms are still
possible across eastern portions of the area Sunday morning,
until the front crosses. With sufficient shear associated with
the strong system, along with CAPE climbing to over a KJ/kg
given sufficient northward transport of Gulf moisture ahead of
it, thunderstorms could be strong and heavy, particularly late
Saturday into Saturday night.

Models and central guidance continue to depict the southeast
downslope rain shadow effect, with less than an inch total
across the lowlands west of the mountains, and over an inch in
the mountains, as well as along and west of the Ohio River. The
high water threat will be limited by our current stretch of dry
weather, and dwindling snow cover in the mountains.

It will be windy this weekend, with peak wind gusts possibly
exceeding 40 mph across the ridges.

Upslope showers linger behind the cold front in strong low
level northwest flow, Sunday night into Monday morning, with
snow possible over the very highest terrain at the end, before
Pacific high pressure builds in Monday afternoon. That high will
provide dry weather for the balance of Monday through Tuesday.

Models differ on timing of the arrival of the next system
heading into the middle of next week, which could be another
strong system cutting up through the Great Lakes again.

Central guidance reflects very warm weather ahead of the system
Saturday, followed by a cooling trend behind the Pacific cold
front Sunday through Monday. The tightening pressure gradient
associated with this system brings much stronger winds late
Friday night and Saturday, but also higher daytime relative
humidity. However, with temperatures pushing 80 degrees across
portions of the lowlands again, slower timing could allow for
lower relative humidity, which could increase fire weather
concerns, given the stronger winds. Temperatures get down only
to around normal behind the system to start the next work week,
before beginning to rebound on Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 620 AM Wednesday...

VFR conditions are expected through the next 24 hours with only some
passing upper level clouds to contend with this evening. A weak dry
cold front will yield northerly winds Metro Valley and north this
morning, with light southwesterly winds south of the Metro Valley.
This feature gets shunted back to the north this afternoon with
winds becoming southwesterly and breezy, gusts 15-20KT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday into Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/JP
NEAR TERM...RPY/JP
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JP