195
FXUS61 KRLX 301900
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
200 PM EST Sun Nov 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure starts the work week off dry on Monday. More
wintry weather is possible Monday night into Tuesday in an
active and chilly pattern. High pressure Wednesday/Thursday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

One last line of showers along the cold front crossing this
afternoon represents the end of the precipitation associated
with the weekend system. Any last pockets of freezing/sub-
freezing temperatures over higher elevations should be
eradicated by the time that line of showers crosses there in
the next hour or two.

Strong, gusty winds shift to the west and continue behind the
cold front this afternoon, and then diminish tonight as a
polar-arctic high builds toward the area. Moisture trapped
below the post frontal inversion will keep clouds around well
into Monday morning, before day time mixing and enough drying
can break them up. Just then, high cloud will be lowering to mid
cloud and thickening ahead of the next system Monday afternoon.

Temperatures dropping well down into the 20s tonight, teens over
the higher mountainous terrain, can result in slick spots where
any moisture lingers. Temperatures Monday recover to highs from
the mid 40s south to the upper 30s north and 30s over the
higher terrain, above freezing for all but the very highest
terrain, but still on the order of 5 to 10 degrees below normal
for the beginning of December.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

This period brings our next rendezvous with winter weather.

Models remain consistent with surface cyclogenesis over the
southeastern states in response to the approach of the next
southern stream short wave trough. The key here is southern
stream, and with only weak phasing with the northern stream,
the air mass with the polar-arctic high that crosses Monday
will be marginally cold enough for snow even with a
synoptically correct track, southeast of the area, for the
crystalline hydrometeors. With the track close enough to the
central Appalachians for lee cyclogenesis over the middle Ohio
Valley, the classic warm wedge effect sets up, with snow and/or
a wintry mix changing over to rain Monday night and Tuesday, at
least across the lowlands along and southeast of the Ohio River.

The event may actually start out as just rain across the
southern coal fields. There may be a transition zone with
freezing rain in the middle Ohio Valley overnight Monday night.
At least Winter Weather Advisories may be needed for snow
and/or freezing rain across portions of the middle Ohio Valley.

The mountains are where things get trickiest, with a more
classic setup for cold air damming along and southeast thereof,
compared with this weekend. There, at least Winter Weather
Advisories may again be needed for snow and ice accumulations.

While the highest precipitation amounts with this system will
fall southeast of the forecast area, precipitation within the
forecast area will be more widespread and heavier than with the
weekend system, potentially resulting in greater winter weather
impacts.

There may be a transition back to snow before precipitation ends
Tuesday night, especially in the mountains, where precipitation
lingers longest.

Temperatures with the system bottom out in the 20s in the
mountains, and the northern and western lowlands, and low 30s
over the southern coal fields, Monday night, then recover to
just the 30s for most locations on Tuesday, before dropping back
into the 20s in the wake of the system Tuesday night, teens over
the higher terrain.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

This period may bring yet another rendezvous or two with winter
weather.

High pressure mainly of polar-pacific origin provides dry,
modestly cold weather Wednesday. A cold front crosses early
Thursday, with little if any precipitation. A polar-arctic high
in the wake of the front brings in somewhat colder air, again
marginally cold enough for mixed wintry precipitation when the
next southern stream system tracks mainly southeast of the area
Friday into next weekend.

Upslope flow behind the system, and then another southern
stream system following right on its heels, possibly as soon as
Sunday, make teasing out a dry interlude next weekend
difficult.

Temperatures remain modestly below normal through the long
term, the coldest day being Thursday and coldest night Thursday
night, behind the early Thursday cold frontal passage.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

MVFR stratocumulus persisting in the wake of a cold front
crossing the area this afternoon was lifting into a VFR deck
across the southern lowlands, CRW and HTS, and may do so farther
and farther north during the rest of the lowlands afternoon,
reaching PKB and CKB. Any VFR ceilings should settle back to
MVFR tonight that will then persist well into Monday morning,
before lifting into a VFR cumulus deck and scattering out come
early Monday afternoon.

One nuance in the forecast was IFR fog earlier at BKW, which
was thinning out, and the IFR stratus there, which should lift
into a low MVFR deck by 00Z.

West winds gusting up to around 25 kts behind the cold front
this afternoon, will gradually diminish tonight, and be calm to
light and variable overnight tonight and Monday as surface high
pressure crosses. Moderate northwest flow aloft this afternoon
will gradually diminish tonight, and then become light
anticyclonic Monday, as high pressure also crosses aloft.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling category changes could
vary. IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out in the mountains
overnight tonight into Monday morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain and/or snow Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM