613
FXUS61 KRLX 272230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
630 PM EDT Thu Mar 27 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A warm front brings a significant warming trend, and some
showers and storms, later tonight into Friday. More storms are
expected next Sunday into Monday, and a few could be strong.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As pf 630 PM Thursday...

Radar imagery shows a band of light rain entering portions of SE
OH at the time of writing. Expect these light rain showers to
move into WV by late this afternoon, before begin to dissipate
by this evening. This rain activity is associated with a lifting
warm front. Introduced low PoPs with this activity as rainfall
accumulations will be minimum to none. Rest of forecast remains
on track.

As of 230 PM Thursday...

A warm front approaches the area tonight, and then crosses
Friday morning, bringing showers and a few thunderstorms, and
then leaving the area in a warm, unstable environment Friday
afternoon.

High clouds were already rolling in from the southwest early
this afternoon, largely limiting the high-based cumulus field
to the northeast.

A few showers may sneak into the Huntington tri-state area this
evening with an initial wave in the warm advection west to
northwest mid/upper-level flow, veering from south to southwest
low level flow beneath.

A better chance for showers will not be until the overnight
hours, and lasting into Friday, amid stronger warm and moist
advection. Thunderstorms are also possible amid narrow elevated
CAPE in the early spring morning warm advection. However, h85
theta e values only in the 310s should limit rainfall intensity.

As the warm front pushes through, shower coverage decreases
from southwest to northeast late Friday morning through Friday
afternoon, although this leaves behind an unstable, modestly
sheared environment. In the absence of forcing, hung on to a
slight chance for showers and thunderstorms for much of the area
Friday afternoon to account for a few cells popping up.

Depending upon the thickness of the mid and high cloud tonight,
temperatures will dip into the 30s in the northeast mountains,
and the normally colder low spots over the lowlands, but then
level off or even rise overnight.

Showers will hold temperatures back a bit Friday morning,
especially north, but increasing sunshine, and increasingly
gusty winds, should propel temperatures well inti the 70s
across the lowlands Friday afternoon, even to around 80 in the
Huntington tri-state area and down the Tug Fork, where RH values
may drop to 30 percent.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 232 PM Thursday...

Active weather in the short term period. Warm frontal boundary north
of our area at the start of the period. Mainly dry conditions
expected Friday night into the first part of Saturday. However,
multiple shortwaves crossing the area, one Saturday
afternoon/evening, followed by a potential additional wave Sunday
out ahead of the main low/front, will help to generate mainly
showers Saturday, possibly a thunderstorm depending on if enough
instability/lift can occur, with thunderstorms more likely on
Sunday. Cold front associated with low to the west moves into the
region on Monday. Area is still outlooked for severe across western
zones in the Sunday evening through Monday morning time frame, but
if much of the convection occurs at night, waning instability may
limit the severe threat for much of the western zones during this
time period, with the potential for a threat in the afternoon hours
across eastern zones as the front progresses through the area. There
will however continue to be a threat for severe owing to the
strengthening shear/winds aloft even across the western zones/Sunday
night despite waning instability. In addition its important to note
there is also uncertainty regarding any severe Monday across the
east as models continue to differ with timing of system/front. Temps
during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 232 PM Thursday...

Cold front should move east of the area by afternoon Monday, with
decreasing threat for convective activity, although showers will
linger behind the front through Monday night/early Tuesday. It will
be cooler on Tuesday behind the front, but overall drier as high
pressure builds in from the north. Temperatures will gradually
increase towards the middle of the week out ahead of the next
system, which looks to spread showers and storms back into the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...

Widespread VFR conditions are anticipated this afternoon and for
the most part of tonight, despite of an approaching warm front.
Cloudiness will gradually thicken and isolated light showers
will become more scattered as the warm front lifts north Friday
morning. A few thunderstorms are possible over WV under an
unstable environment Friday afternoon.

Additional light showers may occur across northeast KY and
southern WV and SW VA trough this evening without any
significant precipitation under VFR conditions.

Conditions will begin to deteriorate to MVFR as showers move in
from the west, perhaps affecting PKB, and HTS, before spreading
east and northeast to affect the rest of sites Friday morning
into the afternoon hours. Thunderstorms are also possible amid
narrow elevated CAPE in the early spring warm advection.

Improving conditions will spread from southwest to northeast as
shower activity diminishes in intensity and coverage late
Friday morning into Friday afternoon or evening. Any
restrictions that do occur at HTS and CRW Friday morning should
improve back to VFR early Friday afternoon.

Southwest to northwest surface flow this afternoon, gusty
across mainly the northern sites, will become calm to light and
variable tonight, light south to southeast overnight into
Friday morning, and then increase from the southwest Friday
afternoon, with gusts at least in the 15 to 20 kt range. Light
west to southwest flow aloft this afternoon and tonight will
strengthen overnight, possibly resulting in a period of low
level wind shear early Friday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and location of MVFR conditions in
showers and possible thunderstorms Friday morning may vary. A
heavier thunderstorm may impact one or more TAF sites at some
point on Friday.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Saturday
night through Sunday and into Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/ARJ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM