


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
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443 FXUS61 KRLX 131024 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION National Weather Service Charleston WV 624 AM EDT Mon Oct 13 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Dry weather stretches across the work week amid strong ridging aloft. A moisture starved cold frontal passage around midweek will bring cooler temperatures through Friday. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 625 AM Monday... Overnight cloud shield courtesy of the coastal low prompted slightly warmer temperatures than anticipated this morning, so bumped up hourly temps into the late morning. Otherwise, the forecast continues to behave as anticipated, with patches of clouds filtering down along breezy northeasterly flow. This trend will hold throughout the day amidst the aforementioned low`s close proximity to the forecast area. As of 125 AM Monday... Coastal low pressure early this morning centered near the Delmarva region continues to spread low clouds into the eastern half of the forecast area. Coupled with breezy winds above the surface, the chances of river valley fog will be low heading into the predawn hours. This low pressure system is anticipated to hug the coastline throughout the day with little to no progress out of the region. As a result, much of the northeast WV mountains will remain masked beneath clouds throughout the period, while the lowlands will escape the brunt of this cloud coverage and should still receive peeks of sunshine during the daytime hours. Breezy winds could also be observed today due to the nearby coastal low as strong winds aloft mix down to the surface after sunrise this morning. Outside of some light sprinkles entrenched within the mountain stratus deck today, dry weather will rule the roost across the forecast area. This theme is anticipated to stretch through the majority of the work week in response to strong ridging aloft over the heart of the country. The center of the disturbance hovering over the eastern seaboard will begin to navigate further into the Atlantic late tonight into Tuesday, which should allow profile winds to gradually ease overnight. This may allow for better river valley fog production during the predawn hours early Tuesday morning. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... As of 125 AM Monday... Quiet weather continues on Tuesday in response to high pressure both at the surface and aloft. Daytime temperatures will rise slightly above their climatological norm for this time of year. A moisture starved cold frontal passage is slated to occur around midweek, followed by a cooler airmass settling over the area. With the center of this high pressure system anchoring overhead for both Wednesday and Thursday nights, efficient radiational cooling will yield dropping temperatures near or below freezing for much of the forecast area. Frost development is strongly possible in this setup, so will continue to monitor forecast trends for future frost/freeze headlines. Otherwise, dry weather will remain triumphant throughout the course of the work week under the guise of strong ridging aloft. A slight increase in cloud coverage will be noted Wednesday afternoon in the midst of the cold front, but little to no chance of precipitation is anticipated in response to the abundant amount of dry air that will be in place with the aforementioned ridge. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 125 AM Monday... The stretch of dry weather that will dominate the work week will cruise into Friday as we remain under the influence of strong ridging aloft. Model guidance shows this upper level feature sliding eastward late in the week into the weekend as a digging trough navigates across the country. Accompanying the trough will be low pressure at the surface and its attendant cold front. Precipitation chances return to the forecast area for the weekend as a result, and could bring beneficial rainfall to areas still stricken with drought conditions this season. Active weather rounds out the forecast period as the front continues to make progress through the Central Appalachians heading into Sunday. && .AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... As of 625 AM Monday... Mid-level cloud coverage, courtesy of a low pressure system churning off the eastern seaboard, has mitigated much in the way of river valley fog development this morning. This feature will continue to serve up periods of sub-VFR ceilings throughout the day, especially across the northeast WV mountains. The rest of the forecast area will likely only observe mid to high level cloud coverage that should not impose any flight rule changes during the day. Surface wind gusts nearing 15kts will be possible across all sites this afternoon before the coastal system departs northeastward overnight into Tuesday. Enough decoupling could impose better opportunities for river valley fog near dawn Tuesday morning, which will be hinted at for the conclusion of the valid 12Z TAF period. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Restrictions due to passing low to mid level clouds may vary today. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning this week. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ SYNOPSIS...05 NEAR TERM...05 SHORT TERM...05 LONG TERM...05 AVIATION...05