174
FXUS61 KRLX 061024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
624 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather through the
holiday weekend. A weak cold front brings back the chance
for showers and thunderstorms to begin the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

Today we have a sort of sandwich pattern going on with an
approaching frontal boundary to our west, which is forecast to
impact the area for Monday and Tuesday, then we have a tropical
disturbance from the southeast which will graze our eastern
border of West Virginia to where chances of shower/thunderstorm
activity will be possible today. We will be nestled under high
pressure holding back most activity potential for the rest of
the area.

Temperatures today will rise in the low to mid 90s for the
lowlands and upper 70s to upper 80s for the mountain counties.
With dewpoints in the mid 60s we will not have to worry about
heat indexes as they will remain below the 100 degree mark. We
may even get a slight breeze going today in the afternoon with
some mixing and the pressure gradient getting squeezed. A
cumulus field should develop, but will not obscure the sun
today, and the column will remain very dry, therefore no heavy
downpours expected where chances of rain are favorable.

Tonight, temperatures will remain just above seasonable,
however we will be fairly dry in the low levels so even with
skies clearing out fairly decent and weak surface flow it will
be hard to develop any fog although some valley fog in the
mountains may become apparent. As the tropical disturbance
tracks more north chances of rain will remain in the northeast
mountains overnight into Monday.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

For Monday, the sandwich pattern remains with growing chances
of rain showers along the mountains and activity out ahead of
the frontal boundary to the west. By afternoon, diurnal
activity will become a possibility across the entire area. We
still remain fairly dry in the upper levels, however there is
enough moisture in the low to mid levels along with PWATS up to
1.75 inches and lapse rates above environmental and with high
DCAPE values, so there could be some heavy downpours under
thunderstorm activity.

As for severe potential, we will have weak bulk shear in the
teens and enough instability, but with weak upper level support
and all the dry air, we will likely just have a hydro threat to
localized areas which are flood prone since slow moving storms
are likely with only 20kts of steering flow.

Temperatures will not change much, however moisture does rise
as dewpoints get into the mid 70s at which point locations will
be in the advisory criteria range. Guidance did lower
temperatures this forecast run, therefore the trend may become
to where a heat advisory may not be needed with the 100 degree
mark for 2 hours not making it to fruition. We will need to
keep an eye on it and re-evalute in the next forecast run.

For Tuesday, the focus turns to the cold frontal passage
although the front will not make it through the entire forecast
area and instead retrograde and become quasi-stationary to our
northern periphery. This day will have better chances of
activity throughout the entire area and though instability will
be high, shear will still be on the weaker side and with no
upper level support, it will make it hard for any thunderstorms
to become strong to severe and last awhile.

Low lapse rates, below the environmental rate, will make it
hard to prolong activity although with more moisture and a
saturated column along with plenty of DCAPE storms will be able
to produce heavy downpours and possibly cause hydro issues
where storms move slow.

Temperatures will slowly start to decrease starting Tuesday
with more rain and cloud coverage and remain so in the next
period, however we will still be just above seasonable.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 AM Sunday...

The aforementioned quasi-stationary boundary will become
stationary but meander slightly about to our north. A wave of
low pressure will ride along the boundary and keep it hovering
into our region for the remainder of this period. This will
allow for more active weather during this period.

Mainly looking at active daytimes where most of the
thunderstorm potential will be diurnal in nature and then less
active nights although low chances of a shower or storms will
remain overnight for the remainder of this period.

If the boundary does stay just to our north the southern half
of our are may be spared much of the time since high pressure
will reside there although chances from central blended model
guidance has us just as busy as the north, if not busier, along
the mountains during the daytime. Accepted central guidance as
there is no evidence that it will be less active in the southern
half of the area.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 630 AM Sunday...

VFR conditions will dominate through the TAF period. Expect
weak southeasterly flow with some possible gusts in the teens by
the mid to late afternoon and also some cumulus developing as
well although will likely stay few to scattered. Any shower
activity should stay along the mountains.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/06/25
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 140 AM Sunday...

It was a very warm June across the NWS Charleston forecast
area. Mean temperatures for the month of June 2025 were
generally 2 to 4 degrees above normal. This translated into
four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the top
10 in terms of their warmest mean June temperatures on record.
Precipitation totals varied significantly across the forecast
area, with some locations below normal, while others were above
normal.

Listed below are the locations, ranks, and observed values of
the top tens that were set.

          June 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------
  Location           Top 10 Rank           Observed Value
-------------------------------------------------------------
- Elkins, WV       : 2nd Warmest        -> 71.6 F
- Beckley, WV      : 3rd Warmest        -> 71.4 F
- Clarksburg, WV   : 3rd Warmest        -> 74.0 F
- Huntington, WV   : 7th Warmest        -> 76.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ

CLIMATE...JZ