484
FXUS61 KRLX 241633
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1233 PM EDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front completes its passage through the area late
tonight. High pressure builds behind the front, supplying
predominantly dry weather and refreshingly cool temperatures.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

A moisture-starved cold front continues an eastward journey
through the forecast area today. The boundary was analyzed to be
crossing the Ohio River at the time of writing, with dropping
dewpoints down into the 50s noted at upstream observation
stations in its wake. That trend is anticipated to sluggishly
occur within the Central Appalachians this afternoon and evening
as the boundary swings through. The best chance for showers and
storms today will be to the east of the forecast area, where the
best pre-frontal southwesterly flow is still present. A few
lingering showers and perhaps a rumble of thunder may still
occur along the northeast WV mountains today, but will grow less
likely with time due to the encroaching front.

Upon the departure of the front, progged to be sometime
overnight into early Monday morning, cold air advection settles
in from the west/northwest under the guise of approaching high
pressure. This will refresh the area with cool and comfortable
temperatures more representative of Fall than the end of August.
Predominantly dry weather and daytime highs tumbling down into
the 60s and 70s awaits us for the start of the new work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

High pressure triumphs over the area through the forecast period
and will continue to support unseasonably cool temperatures and
dry weather across the Central Appalachians. The center of the
high will still be back in the Upper Midwest starting Monday
night, but its influence will stretch down into the Ohio and
Mississippi Valleys, and will maintain its grip over the eastern
CONUS as it slides eastward through the course of the work week.

During which time, overnight cool temperatures settling over
warm river basins will infer patchy to dense river valley fog
each morning that will then gradually branch out into fair
weather cumulus fields for the afternoon timeframe. Refreshing
afternoon temperatures will range in the upper 50s to mid 60s
along our mountain zones and low to upper 70s across the lower
elevations. Chamber of Commerce weather will therefore be on tap
for this upcoming work week.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

High pressure remains at the forefront of the long term period,
serving up multiple days of dry weather across the region. This
feature is progged to be centered overhead by Thursday and then
meander over the Great Lakes region and the Ohio Valley through
the end of the forecast period. The repositioning of the high
will begin to stir up rising temperatures and slightly higher
dew points for the latter half of the week as low level flow
shifts out of the south. This will encourage high temperatures
to reach the low 80s once again in the Tri-State area, returning
us to a more seasonable pattern for this time of year.

As it currently stands, there remains very little agreement on
the timing and location of the next weather maker for here in
the forecast area, so therefore little to no rainfall is
anticipated after today`s cold front highlighted in the near
term period.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Sunday...

The TAF period opens up in the midst of a cold frontal passage.
At the time of writing, the front was oriented from north to
south along the Ohio River, with the anticipation of the
boundary making more progress eastward through the course of the
afternoon and evening. The best forcing now resides east of the
mountains and will be where most of the showers and storms set
up for today. However, a few stray showers remain possible near
our mountain terminals this afternoon before the front swings
overhead tonight. Therefore, included a few hours of VCTS and
EKN and BKW.

The front will sluggishly pivot through the area overnight and
will supply enough moisture and calm low level winds to produce
areas of locally dense valley fog through Monday morning. Fog
will remain firmly in place until daybreak and will then
gradually erode into afternoon fair weather cumulus. High
pressure begins to settle into the area on Monday, which will
preclude any active weather for the rest of the work week. VFR
conditions will then rule the roost during the daytime hours.

Light to calm winds today will shift out of the west in the
wake of the frontal passage. Breezy winds may ensue along the
mountains Monday afternoon around 15kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog each morning this week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...MEK