471
FXUS61 KRLX 251825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
125 PM EST Tue Nov 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Low pressure brings showers into Wednesday. A strong cold front
on Wednesday brings gusty winds and much colder conditions for
Thanksgiving, and into the start of the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

A complex low pressure system impacts the area through
Thursday.

The NAM suite has backed off on QPF for the Kanawha Metro
Valley this afternoon, in associated with the warm front and
mid-level trough associated with the southern stream component
of the system. The NAM suite is now in agreement with CAMs,
global models and central guidance, which show the heaviest
amounts over northern portions of the middle Ohio Valley. These
amounts of one half to three quarters of an inch will be easily
manageable outside visibility restrictions and hydroplaning.

The rainfall of concern early this afternoon was more evenly
distributed across the lowlands, and was amounting to up to a
tenth of an inch an hour and two tenths in three hours, and will
not last much longer than that in any given location. Surface
flow and temperatures were struggling to increase early this
afternoon, as is not uncommon ahead of a warm front.

The widespread rain transitions to showers this afternoon with
less coverage through tonight, as a weak cold front associated
with the southern stream low crosses. A rumble of thunder cannot
be ruled out across far southern portions of the forecast area
ahead of this front this evening, as depicted by the Day One
Convective Outlook out of SPC. However, instability is limited
in degree and depth.

An arctic front associated with a northern stream mid/upper-
level low that crosses the upper midwest tonight and Great Lakes
Wednesday, crosses the forcast area on Wednesday. The front
will be followed by gusty winds and falling temperatures. The
mild air remains in place into Wednesday morning, before falling
from the 50s into and through the 40s from west to east during
the midday and afternoon hours on Wednesday. Low level moisture
settling in tonight will also be flushed out by the arctic
front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Cold characterizes this period, so the warmth of ovens on turkey
day will be welcome, with mother nature providing a large, free
refrigerator/freezer for leftovers.

A strong post frontal inversion explains the modestly low
heights compared with how cold it will be at the surface, with
lowland highs only in the 30s on Thursday and especially
Friday. Temperatures should drop below freezing throughout the
forecast area by dawn turkey day, and then drop well into the
20s Thanksgiving night, teens in the higher terrain.

The depth of the mixed layer beneath the inversion varies, the
top of it reaching the lower to middle portions of the favored
dendritic growth temperature range, allowing for at least
flurries at least in and near the mountains. The best chance
for snow showers there is Wednesday evening as the mid/upper
level trough behind the cold front crosses, and then again late
Thursday night into Friday morning, when a mid-level short wave
trough crosses, the mixed layer being deepest beneath these
features.

Strong winds behind the cold front will gust toward 40 mph in
interior southeast Ohio Wednesday, and to 50 mph across the
higher ridges Wednesday night into Thursday. There, both the
HREF and the probabilistic NBM show well over a 50 percent
chance for wind gusts exceeding the 46 mph advisory criteria
Wednesday night into Thursday morning, but probabilities of
getting gusts over the 58 mph warning threshold are much lower.
As a result, would expect needing a Wind Advisory for the at
least the northern mountain zones for Wednesday night.

These strong winds will diminish a bit Thursday, but another
uptick is likely over the higher terrain Thursday night, before
winds gradually diminish on Friday.

Apparent temperatures will dip into the single digits across the
higher mountainous terrain Wednesday night, and remain there
through Friday.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

After a dry, cold start, the long term brings a cacophony of
forecast issues.

The high representing the center of the arctic air mass is
forecast to be parked right over the area Saturday morning,
perfect for radiative cooling that will send temperatures down
into the teens across much of the area.

The balance of the weekend brings moderating temperatures as the
next low pressure system moves into the area. While this system
will track north of the area on Sunday, precipitation associated
with it could take a wintry mix as it moves into the area
Saturday night, before turning to rain on Sunday.

The cacophony begins Sunday night, with colder air moving in
behind the system as precipitation ends, and then central
guidance not yet able to resolve a dry period before the next
system rolls in around the middle of next week. While models are
in fairly good agreement on high pressure behind the weekend
system crossing on Monday, they then diverge widely on the track
and timing of the next system. Solutions generally range from a
flat wave passing southeast of the forecast area, to a more
amplified system possibly tracking to the northwest of the area.

The upper level pattern next week will be progressive, with
modestly low heights over the area, and temperatures modestly
below normal at least early on.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Rain associated with a warm front this afternoon will bring
MVFR conditions at times. The widespread rain moves out of the
area late this afternoon into this evening, leaving behind more
widely scattered showers, as a weak cold front associated with
the same parent low pressure system crosses. Ceilings will tend
to lower to MVFR later this afternoon and evening, and
eventually to IFR overnight tonight. However, low level flow
will be sufficient to prevent much more than occasional MVFR
visibility.

An arctic front crosses on Wednesday, followed by gusty winds
but rising ceilings, which should reach VFR for most if not all
but the higher terrain by the end of the TAF period, 18Z
Wednesday. Any visibility restrictions should improve quickly
to VFR after daybreak Wednesday.

Southeast surface flow, gusty at BKW and gusty at times along
the Oho River, but light elsewhere early this afternoon,
allowing possible low level wind shear CRW, CKB and EKN. Surface
flow will become south this evening and light southwest
overnight, before becoming west to southwest behind the arctic
front on Wednesday, with gusts increasing to at least 25 kts by
the end of the TAF period, 18Z Wednesday. Moderate to strong
southwest flow aloft this afternoon will be moderate southwest
tonight and Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of rain and associated restrictions may
vary from forecast. Ceilings and visibility outside rain showers may
vary overnight tonight into Wednesday morning. Gusty winds
behind the arctic front Wednesday will fluctuate.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...TRM