027
FXUS61 KRLX 030125
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
925 PM EDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
An approaching system serves up showers and thunderstorms at
times through the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for
the Mid-Ohio Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 923 PM Wednesday...

Our linear complex of storms to the west has gained some steam
and is gradually propagating eastward, with some scattered
cells ahead of the main line. Current SSCRAM/HRRR guidance shows
damaging wind probs entering our area between 11pm and 2am tonight.
There is a bit of CINH over our area though, -50 to -100 J/Kg,
and models project that a stout -200 J/Kg will remain ahead of
the line 4 to 6 hours from now. The front that is forcing this
line is projected to slow down overnight too. These factors
could lead to a similar scenario of the system that crossed
previous Sunday into Monday where we saw a serious degradation
of the line as it tried to move across our area.

Thinking our Ohio, Kentucky and western West Virginia counties
would see the brunt of the activity before the line weakens
early Thursday morning, becoming mostly showers with moderate
to heavy rain there after. Latest HRRR and other CAMs support
this scenario, though do keep the line fairly stout than would
like as it traverses our area tonight.

The previously mentioned threats are still on the table with
damaging winds and heavy rain leading to flash flooding being
the main concerns across our area. There does remain the chance
for pockets of hail and an isolated tornado or two embedded in
the line, but these chances remain mostly skewed across our
KY/OH/western WV counties.

As of 300 PM Wednesday...

Key Points:

 * An approaching disturbance will serve up potential for
   severe weather on Thursday.

 * The slow movement of this system will set off a prolonged
   period of flooding concerns beginning overnight and into the
   weekend.

After a brief stint of strong to severe thunderstorms across the
Ohio River Valley earlier this afternoon draped along a warm
front, the forecast area has returned to a quiet state for the
time being. Ample sunshine in tandem with breezy onshore flow
in the wake of the front have yielded quite the rise in
temperatures this afternoon. Local observations show a stark
gradient between the lowlands and the WV foothills and
mountains, who have been plagued with low hanging stratus for
much of the day. Here at the forecast office we`ve crested over
the 80 degree mark already this afternoon, with locations in the
Tri-State area now making a run for the mid 80s before diurnal
heating phases out for the day.

An area to closely monitor while we remain positioned in the
warm sector of an advancing low pressure system this evening
will be a line of strong and severe thunderstorms trekking
through the lower Great Lakes region down into the Arklatex
region, marking the current location of the disturbance`s
attendant cold front. How well storms maintain their current
composure as they track across the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys
this evening will determine the severity risk for the Central
Appalachians late tonight into the early morning hours on
Thursday. Retained previous thinking that storms will begin to
peter out as they encroach the western flank of the forecast
area, but still could pose concerns for damaging wind gusts at
the very least due to a strong 50-70kt low level jet parked
overhead.

Low level moisture will continue to be advected in from the
southwest on Thursday ahead of the cold frontal passage.
Forecast dew points ranging between 55 to 65F will be in place
by midday Thursday as the frontal boundary moseys on in from
the west. Depending on how overnight radar activity pans out,
current thinking is that precipitation will settle into the Ohio
River Valley by daybreak and slowly ooze southeastward through
the late morning hours. Daytime heating across the central
lowlands and southeast portions of the forecast area could still
achieve high temperatures in the low 70s to help engage renewed
potential for severe weather Thursday afternoon. All hazards
remain in play, with damaging winds remaining at the forefront
of the severity risk due to the strong jet aloft. 12Z RAOB
soundings this morning around the region pinpointed freezing
levels between 7 to 10kft AGL with similar positioning tomorrow,
which could impose another round of large hail as maturing storms
grow upward. Also cannot rule out potential for tornadoes due to
decent low level helicity indicated on forecast soundings for
the afternoon time period.

In addition to severe potential, this frontal boundary will
become the focus for prolonged hydro concerns heading into the
extended period of the forecast. The front is progged to become
stationary on Thursday, with embedded waves of energy aiding in
enriching moisture heading into tomorrow evening. The Flood
Watch will go into effect starting tonight to beginning
capturing this potential for flooding concerns as the ground
becomes more saturated over the next few days.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 156 PM Wednesday...

Frontal boundary initially stalled out across the area early Friday,
should generally lift back north during the day. Heavy rain/storms
are looking likely early Friday along the Ohio River and North
Central WV in area of front. However, showers and storms will
continue to occur during the day Friday, but thinking is as we
progress into the late afternoon or evening hours, the bulk of
precipitation should generally be north of the Ohio River closer to
the front. Still looking at the potential for severe storms, mainly
north of the Ohio River on Friday, with a damaging wind threat
possible. By the time we get into Friday evening/night, the front
should have lifted well to our north, along with the axis of heavier
rainfall as waves of low pressure move along the front.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 140 PM Wednesday...

Key Point:
* Flooding concerns linger into early next week.

An unsettled pattern continues as a low pressure system moves into
the Great Lakes region and then migrates northeast on Saturday.
While drier conditions may creep in to southern and eastern portions
of the CWA during the afternoon, the best chances for precipitation
linger across southeast OH, northwest WV, and northeast KY. Rain and
thunderstorms overspread the area as a cold front approaches
Saturday night, then activity continues into Sunday night while the
front slowly trudges east.

During the first half of the work week, another low passes to the
north while an associated upper trough pivots overhead. Periods of
precipitation remain possible as this system crosses and potentially
sends another front across the area.

Flooding remains a concern, particularly across the western half of
the CWA where soils are already expected to be saturated from
previous rainfall. In addition to an initial risk of flash flooding
this weekend, runoff is expected to lead to rises on rivers, creeks,
and streams with potential for river flooding to persist through
early next week.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 754 PM Wednesday...

Some showers and thunderstorms have popped up across SE Ohio and
the lowlands west of Charleston late this afternoon. Some
lightning and small hail have been reported with these. They
appear to be weakening at this time though and will likely
continue to do so with the sun setting.

VFR conditions expected for most of the evening until a complex
of storms arrives at our western door step between ~04-06z
tonight, then slowly pushing westward. Some of these storms will
likely be strong to severe with damaging winds, hail and the
chance for an isolated tornado or two. MVFR and IFR restrictions
will accompany this system.

The convective activity will likely die down early in the
morning morning, but showers will remain across the area with
pockets of heavy rain possible. MVFR conditions will likely
accompany this through the morning. Another round of strong to
severe thunderstorms are expected tomorrow afternoon with
damaging winds, hail and isolated tornado potential being the
risk factors on the table.

SSE winds will remain breezy to gusty tonight as a low-level jet
moves in overhead and strengthens. Gusts between 20 and 30 kts
will be common for most sites. 45 to 55 kts of LLWS remains in
the TAFs for most sites overnight as the low level jet strengthens.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions with
showers and thunderstorms could vary. Timing and intensity for
thunderstorms could also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 04/03/25
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday
night through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Sunday morning for
     WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Sunday morning for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from 2 AM EDT Thursday through Sunday morning for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK/LTC
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JLB
AVIATION...LTC