459
FXUS61 KRLX 101117
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
617 AM EST Fri Jan 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Very cold this morning. Accumulating and impactful snow is
expected this afternoon through late Saturday. Brief break
Sunday, then light snow and gusty winds may arrive Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 440 AM Friday...

In collaboration with Blacksburg, we expanded the Winter Storm
Warning into the southern coalfields and central mountains, as
most zones there are forecast to reach or exceed warning
criteria snowfall amounts. Upgrade is due to slightly higher QPF
and snow amounts with the latest data, especially with the
lingering snowfall on Saturday.


As of 130 AM Friday...

A southern stream system driven by a stout jet influenced by
cold air already in place across the region is headed our way,
while an upper level trough to the north enhances cold air
advection and moisture from the Great Lakes. This setup will
promote an all snow regime across the entire area. Hi-res
models has the snow entering the CWA from the south at around
as early as 15Z, but decided to lean toward the blended model
guidance with a couple tweaks and slow down the chances of
precipitation to around 17/18Z when we start to see slight
chances in the southern tier of our counties including southwest
VA.

The system will quickly traverse past the area toward the east
due to sufficient steering flow and start to taper off heavier
rates of snow by early Saturday morning. The low will be setup
toward the south and the northern sectors will graze our
southern areas of the CWA to which will provide a burst of
higher rates. This is when the upper level trough will influence
the area and add additional snow amounts in the next period as
the aforementioned system pulls off.

We have advisories in place for all of our counties except for
southwest VA which has a Winter Storm Warning. Elected to stay
with what we have and not upgrade around the southern coal
fields and up to Raleigh county since DESI (Dynamic Ensemble-
based Scenarios for IDSS) was hitting lower than 30%
probabilistic chance of 4 inches or more, which is the threshold
for warning criteria. The advisories that are out for that area
have up to 4 inches with locally higher amounts up to 5, so we
are covered for what we have in the total snow amounts.
Otherwise, the rest of the area is looking at an average of 3
inches with higher amounts up to 5 inches or more in the
northeast mountains, but all threshold for warnings were not
exceeded, therefore the advisories will stand.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Friday...

The heaviest snow for the lowlands and southern mountains looks
to be over by sunrise Saturday, but some moderate to locally
heavy snow will continue in the central and northern mountains
on Saturday. Some upslope snow showers likely linger in the
mountains into Saturday night, but high pressure building in and
shifting winds more SW`ly should cut off any remaining flurries
after midnight. An additional 1-3" is likely Saturday and
Saturday night for those central and northern mountains, with
up to an inch elsewhere.

In terms of temperatures, we will remain below normal Saturday,
with highs generally 10 to 15 degrees lower than is typical for
mid-January. Behind the system, Saturday night lows are likely
to be in the teens for much of the CWA, and single digits above
zero in the higher mountains. Surface high pressure and an
upper- level ridge build over the area on Sunday, and for one
brief, glorious moment, much of the area may see some sunshine.
Highs will rebound somewhat under the sunshine and light winds,
with upper-20s in the mountains and 30s in the lowlands. Clouds
start to move in from the west Sunday night ahead of the next
system.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 345 AM Friday...

The forecast for the next work week is complicated, but two
things seem increasingly certain - it will be cloudy most of the
time, and periods of at least light snow showers will be
possible throughout the week. Once the first wave moves in on
Monday, it appears that much of the eastern CONUS will remain
under the influence of a longwave upper-level trough parked over
northeastern North America through most if not all of next
week.

As such, we keep slight chance to chance POPs over most or all
of the CWA through mid-week, and in reality, this may well
extend to the end of next week. Most of WV spends most of next
week under Chance POPs, with the most persistent snow chances
along and northwest of the higher terrain thanks to NW`ly flow
bringing moisture towards us from the Great Lakes. Not seeing
any clear signals of a major snow event in that time frame, but
rather just persistent clouds, and at least on-and-off light
snow (and possibly more `on` than `off`, especially in the
mountains). As any shortwave troughs rotate around the parent
upper-level feature, periods of enhanced snow coverage and/or
intensity are likely, but it`s hard to peg on timing with any
confidence this far out. However, as we get closer, models will
likely come into better agreement on timing of the smaller scale
features, and boosted POPs for those periods will be possible,
and perhaps reduced POPs in between systems.

As for temperatures, Monday`s highs will likely be very
dependent on the timing of the onset of snow and passage of the
surface front. For now, depicting an afternoon frontal passage,
we still have highs ranging from mid-20s on the higher peaks to
low or mid-30s in the lowlands, but a faster front would put a
lower cap on temps. After that, things cool off sharply heading
towards midweek, with highs potentially on the order of 20
degrees below normal around mid-week. Lows could also drop into
the single digits to low teens for most Tuesday and Wednesday
nights, but the persistent cloud cover may help prevent the
bottom from dropping out on low temperatures. However, with
gusty winds possibly persisting much of next week, some Cold
Weather Advisories seem probable at least in the mountains, and
possibly for some lower elevation locations.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 AM Friday...

VFR will largely dominate during this period up until this
afternoon when a system brings snow to the area from south to
north. To start, mainly high clouds will advect in then
gradually lower from top to bottom through the period. The
southern most site (BKW) will get the snow first at around 21Z.
Then subsequently the rest of the sites will gradually wait for
snow until the northern sites endure it by 00Z or slightly
thereafter for EKN/CKB. VIS will drop quickly with the onset of
snow dropping them down to LIFR shortly thereafter. Snow will
continue overnight into Saturday morning with lower CIGs and VIS
expected to prevail (IFR or worse). Winds are expected to be
very light and will pick up slightly by Saturday morning where
gusts in the teens will not be out of the question.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of snow showers and declining VIS
and CIGs may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR in snow and low ceilings expected late Friday night through
Saturday, possibly into Saturday night along the higher
terrain, and then again on Monday in additional light snow.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ005>008-013>016-027.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ009>011-017>020-028>032.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ024>026-033-034.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 1 AM EST
     Sunday for WVZ039-040-521>526.
     Winter Storm Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 PM EST
     Saturday for WVZ515>520.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for OHZ066-075-083>087.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 4 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for OHZ067-076.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 4 PM EST
     Saturday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...Winter Storm Warning from 10 AM this morning to 1 PM EST
     Saturday for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/JZ
NEAR TERM...JZ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...JZ