900
FXUS61 KRLX 011846
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
246 PM EDT Tue Apr 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure provides dry weather later today/tonight. Showers
and thunderstorms Wednesday through the weekend, with flooding
increasingly likely for the Mid-Ohio Valley region.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 220 PM Tuesday...

Clouds were more stubborn to clear out than initially expected,
but are breaking up as we head towards the mid-afternoon hours
today. As a result, temperatures have been held down in much of
the area, but most areas are warming up quickly as they get
clear of clouds. So much of the area should still be able to
make it into at least the low to mid-50s this afternoon.

Clear skies are expected this evening and early overnight, but
high clouds stream in from the west after midnight as the next
low pressure system moves towards the Mississippi valley and
pushes showers ahead of the warm front across Ohio. Some of
those showers are likely to skirt across Southeast Ohio and the
Mid-Ohio Valley tomorrow morning, with a few embedded
thunderstorms possible. After the initial surge, there may be a
bit of a break Wednesday afternoon ahead of the expectation of
more showers and storms tomorrow night to start the short-term
period.

Temps will drop through around midnight or a bit later, with
lower elevation lows ranging from around 40 degrees to the upper
40s in the SW part of the CWA, while the higher ridges drop
into the mid-30s to lower 40s. However, with downsloping SE-S`ly
winds expected to develop after midnight, temps may actually
start rising slowly for much of the area well before sunrise. A
very warm day is likely in store for much of the area
Wednesday, especially for the western part of the CWA, where
highs in the low to mid-80s are possible. North and northeast of
Charleston, highs are generally expected in the 70s, with 50s
and 60s for the mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 158 PM Tuesday...

Frontal boundary associated with low moving into/through Canada will
approach the area on Thursday, with increasing chances for showers
and storms, some of which could be strong to severe. Convection
approaching the area early Thursday should overall gradually weaken
as it moves into the area.  However, there still remains uncertainty
in where exactly the front ends up briefly stalling on Thursday, and
these factors will have a say in where convection will be more
likely Thursday afternoon, plus, the axis of heaviest rain on
Thursday/Thursday night into Friday, as waves move along the front
towards the area. Latest nam run would seem to suggest front and
associated convection arriving Thursday morning, with convection
generally weakening as it moves into our CWA, before the front lifts
back north of the area Thursday evening/night, keeping the axis of
heavier rain off to our north in this period. Meanwhile, GFS and
ECMWF continue to briefly stall the front in the Ohio River region,
with additional waves moving along the front, bringing heavy rains
to the Middle Ohio Valley, before slowly drifting northward later
Friday into Saturday. Regardless of exactly where the front ends up,
there should still be plenty of instability and shear present south
of the front to expect the possibility of severe thunderstorms with
a damaging wind, hail, and perhaps tornado threat Thursday
afternoon/evening. Any waves moving along the front towards the area
will only enhance the potential for storm development, with the
heaviest qpf amounts still looking to occur in our NE KY, SE Ohio,
and WV counties closest to the Ohio River.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1222 PM Tuesday...

Aforementioned frontal boundary will continue to meander across the
area during the period, with additional waves moving along the
front, bringing enhanced periods of showers/storms and heavy
rainfall. The risk for flooding will remain during the period and
flooding looks to be likely along area creeks and streams, as
well as main stem rivers, particularly in the Ohio Valley
region. Drier weather doesn`t look to take hold until later
Sunday into Monday when an upper shortwave trough finally is
able to kick things off to the east. A cooler, and showery
weather pattern looks to take hold for early next week with a
trough taking hold across the area.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Tuesday...

The MVFR clouds are gradually dissipating due to dry air moving
into the area and daytime heating taking hold. VFR conditions
are expected later this afternoon into the overnight hours.
High clouds will spread over the area late tonight, and will
thicken and lower some tomorrow morning and showers and a few
storms move across Southeast Ohio and the Mid-Ohio Valley. A few
showers could bring some lower ceilings or visibility, but for
now have only put a PROB30 group at PKB due to uncertainty on
timing and placement details this far out.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR ceilings could hold on at EKN for a
bit longer than forecast to start the TAF period.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms Wednesday
night through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Sunday morning for
     WVZ005>011-014-017-019.
OH...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Sunday morning for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Flood Watch from Wednesday evening through Sunday morning for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK/SL
NEAR TERM...FK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FK