837
FXUS61 KRLX 252336
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
736 PM EDT Fri Apr 25 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing chances for showers and storms through tonight.
Remaining unsettled through Saturday. High pressure returns
early next week, then becoming unsettled again midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

Still seeing scattered showers and a few thunderstorms drift
across the area this evening. They will continue into the
overnight hours, especially across the mountains where the
higher PoPs are located. Cold front is slated to cross overnight
too which will eventually skew most of the chances along the
mountains by early morning.

As of 1235 PM Friday...

No significant changes were necessary to the inherited forecast.
Area remains in the warm sector of an approaching low and mid level
shortwave, that will eventually move east towards the area later
today and tonight, with increasing coverage of showers and isolated
storms as it does so. Precipitation amounts thus far have generally
remained rather light, generally a third of an inch or so in the
last 6 hours, with some locally heavier amounts up to half an inch
just to our west. We are still outlooked in a marginal risk for
excessive rainfall and a localized minor flooding issue cannot be
completely ruled out, mainly in poor drainage or low lying areas.
Still not expecting anything in the way of severe due to an overall
lack of instability.

The low and shortwave will move east on Saturday with precipitation
gradually decreasing as we progress through the day. It will become
windy however, as pressure gradient tightens in response to high
pressure building in from the north and west.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1219 PM Friday...

High pressure will move back overhead Sunday, and dry, comfortable
weather will return. Afternoon temperatures will reach the middle to
upper 60s areawide with mostly sunny skies. Dry, tranquil weather
will continue Monday under the influence of high pressure.
Temperatures will turn a bit warmer Monday as winds shift back out
of the south. Expect highs into the upper 70s to near 80 in the
lowlands Monday.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1219 PM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will return Tuesday into Wednesday as
another frontal boundary approaches. There is some potential for
strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon and evening as a
front approaches from the west and a 500-mb vort. max approaches
from the southwest. Sfc to 6 km shear should be sufficient for
thunderstorm organization, with models showing about 30-40 kts of
shear by 00Z Wednesday. The best instability appears to be across
northwest West Virginia and southeast Ohio. This would be the most
likely location of strong to severe thunderstorms Tuesday afternoon
and evening based on current model guidance, which could
change. SPC currently has this area outlooked in a 15% threat
for severe weather Tuesday. There is still plenty of time for
things to change, so we will wait and see how models fine tune
the forecast over the coming days.

The weather pattern looks rather messy the rest of the week with
models showing continuous streams of 500-mb vorticity approaching
from the southwest through Thursday or Friday. The aforementioned
frontal boundary in the previous paragraph may stall over the
area Wednesday and Thursday, leading to continued shower and
thunderstorm chances. Confidence in this portion of the forecast
is low to medium, because shower coverage and intensity will
depend on the location of the stalled front.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 725 PM Friday...

Flight conditions will leave much to be desired this evening and
overnight with showers and thunderstorms continuing to move up
from the southwest well into the evening. MVFR and IFR ceilings
and visbys will accompany any thunderstorms as will variable
wind directions and gusts within stronger cells.

Most of the convective activity and heavier rainfall will wane
by ~06z, with higher chances for precipitation remaining across
the mountains. Ceilings and visbys will gradually lower to MVFR
and IFR across the area overnight ahead of a cold front.
Ceilings will remain MVFR or IFR through much of the day
Saturday before west to east improvement occurs late in the
afternoon. More chances for showers and some thunderstorms into
Saturday afternoon, though higher chances will remain across the
mountains.

Winds will be light and from the southwest through the night and
could be gusty across the mountains at times. Some LLWS may
accompany the FROPA tonight and it has been added at sites with
the lightest winds. For tomorrow, winds will be gusty and
northwesterly behind the front.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of showers
and storms may vary from forecast. Timing, duration and
coverage of lower ceilings may also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
No widespread IFR expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/JMC
NEAR TERM...SL/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC