045
FXUS61 KRLX 070218
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
918 PM EST Thu Mar 6 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Skies clear from west to east tonight. A system bring
precipitation late Friday into Saturday. Dry to end the weekend
through Wednesday with a significant warming trend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 915 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains in tact. Elected to drop the rest of the
Wind Advisory in the northeast mountains as the threat has
diminished below criteria.

As of 730 PM Thursday...

Elected to cancel most of the Wind Advisory along the
mountains. The winds have tapered off significantly across the
lower elevations around the mountains therefore the winds are
well below criteria. Kept in the highest elevations in the
northeast mountains which is valid until 4am. Will re-evaluate
in the near future to see if we can cancel the rest of the
advisory.

As of 600 PM Thursday...

The forecast remains on track.

As of 1235 PM Thursday...

Subsidence behind a departing mid-level wave should yield lake
enhanced snow streamers transitioning into flurries this
afternoon. With snow streamers in the mountains tapering off
with only 1 to maybe 2 inches that has fallen in the most
persistent streamers, will cancel the existing Winter Weather
Advisory in the mountains with the afternoon package. Winds will
remain breezy this afternoon into this evening, approaching 50
mph in the mountains with gusts generally 25-35 mph elsewhere. A
wind advisory remains in effect for the higher terrain through
4 AM, but this may be able to be dropped a bit earlier.

While west-northwesterly flow is maintained, building mid-level
heights from the southwest will yield weak low level warm advection
overnight tonight amidst initially clearing skies. Overnight lows
will be in the upper 20s across the lower elevations, a few degrees
colder in typical cold spots.

A warm front associated with surface low pressure emerging out of
the Central Rockies this evening arrives across the TN Valley Friday
evening yielding parcel ascent via isentropic upglide over the
forecast area Friday evening. With a substantially dry sub-cloud
layer, it is questionable whether much will be able to accumulate or
even reach the ground prior to the end of the near term period, but
will code some low end PoPs. Lows Thursday night will generally
be in the 20s.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 145 PM Thursday...

A clipper type system will move across the area late Friday
into Saturday. With the low moving across the area, most of the
lowlands will be warm enough for liquid precipitation, although
central Ohio and northern West Virginia could see a period of
snow. The northern West Virginia mountains could see a mix of
precipitation, with some light snow accumulations possible.

Models show a southerly system moving south of the area Saturday
night into Sunday. Believe that the area will remain dry, but
there is a slight chance that some precipitation could work it`s
way into southwest Virginia and extreme southern West Virginia.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1120 AM Thursday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Sunday
night through Wednesday. As the high slides eastward and a
southerly wind persists, temperatures will continue to moderate
some each day. By Wednesday, most of the lowlands and lower
elevations will have afternoon temperatures in the 70s. Model
agreement is actually above average for this time period.

A system then arrives Wednesday night or Thursday. While models
do show some differences in strength, timing and placement with
this system, agreement is still above average for a forecast
this far in advance.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 630 PM Thursday...

Any MVFR CIGs will lift out in the very near future and then
VFR will rule overnight and into tomorrow. Clouds will
eventually come back into the picture tomorrow afternoon but
will remain VFR.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 03/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
EST 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible Friday night into Saturday with
precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JP
NEAR TERM...JP/JZ
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JZ