721
FXUS61 KRLX 031749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1249 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure returns today. Front crosses Thursday morning,
with light snow shower activity. Additional systems possible
late this week and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1230 AM Wednesday...

High pressure in control across the area today will provide dry
conditions. Widespread low cloud cover across the area is much
slower to erode than the models have been indicating, but it is
finally showing some signs across the south. Extended the period
of mostly cloudy sky conditions from previous forecast, with the
possibility that not everywhere will totally clear, before
additional clouds filter in from the north again with the
approach of a cold front. This will spread light snow showers
back into the area for Thursday, primarily across northern
zones, but possible much of the CWA. Generally less than half
an inch of accumulation is anticipated at this time. This could
cause some impacts on untreated roadways Thursday morning, and
have elected to issue a special weather statement to highlight
this potential. Temperatures will remain near to or slightly
below average for this time of year.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1238 PM Wednesday...

Friday morning will be quite cold behind Thursdays frontal passage,
with lows in the teens, to possibly the single digits across the
north. Focus on Friday then shifts to a system that will move east
across the Gulf States. Still uncertainty in how far north the
precipitation shield will make it, with continued run to run
inconsistencies in the models. In addition, precipitation type is
also a bit uncertain at times/in spots, depending on moisture
profile/depth, and whether there will be much in the way of crystal
growth. Models still overall continue the drier trend, with greater
chances mainly along our extreme southern/mountain zones. In fact,
much of the area may remain mostly dry. However, the blend of
models continues to paint much of the CWA with a chance of pops,
with liklies across the south on Friday, and will maintain, as
there continues to be uncertainty. System will depart to the
east Friday evening into Saturday, with drier conditions taking
hold.


&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

The weekend still looks to be rather uncertain, but appears to be
trending drier. Another system may affect the area early next week,
providing another round of wintry weather to the area, but even this
is highly variable between the different model solutions.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Wednesday...

Widespread MVFR and local IFR ceilings continue to persist
across the area this afternoon. Maintained these conditions
generally through at least 21-23Z across southern/eastern WV
and SW VA before generally a brief period of VFR afterwards.
Across the north, i.e. Mid Ohio Valley region/Southeast Ohio,
have much less confidence in VFR conditions developing, and
generally just went ahead and maintained MVFR. Even so, the
period of VFR anywhere will generally be short lived, with
ceilings starting to lower tonight, particularly after 06-09Z,
as a cold front moves through the area, spreading -shsn back
into the region. Conditions should generally be widespread MVFR
with this front, but areas of IFR will be possible in heavier
bursts of snow shower activity.

Light surface winds during the period, will become gusty at
times after 12Z Thursday along the mountains, with gusts in the
teens to 20s at times.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration and extent of restrictions
associated with low ceilings may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in a wintry mix Friday and Friday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL