509
FXUS61 KRLX 091755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
155 PM EDT Sun Mar 9 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry weather prevails into the start of the work week, with a
significant warming trend. A strong system is likely to affect
the area next weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

A pleasant afternoon rounds out the weekend courtesy of high
pressure. Southwesterly flow has contributed to slightly warmer
temperatures today, with observations at the time of writing
ranging in the 40s and 50s. Outside of isolated afternoon
cumulus fields over the northeast mountains and diminishing high
cirrus streaming across the southern half of the forecast area,
skies remaining generally clear today. Relative humidities have
tumbled down into the 30s so far this afternoon, but fire
weather concerns remain at bay so far within this dry spell due
to reasonable fuel moisture. Breezy winds this afternoon in
response to a lingering pressure gradient will gradually ease
this evening into tonight.

After another night of sufficient radiational cooling, Monday
morning lows will bottom out into the low 30s. Ongoing warming
trend will result in afternoon highs rising into the 60s for
much of the lower elevations and low to mid 50s along the higher
terrain. Dry weather, mostly clear skies, light winds, and
pleasant temperatures will yield Chamber of Commerce weather for
the start of the work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 153 PM Sunday...

Windy conditions will take hold for Tuesday as the pressure gradient
tightens across the area from a passing disturbance to the north,
with a moisture starved cold front moving south towards our area.
This front, depending on which model solution you use, will either
just clear the CWA early Wednesday, or stall out somewhere in the
Mid Ohio Valley region before gradually lifting back northward later
in the day Wednesday into Wednesday night/early Thursday.  Tuesday
looks to be a day for at least minor fire weather concerns, with
gusty winds and RH bottoming out in the 20s to lower 30s. Continued
to trend/err towards lower side of guidance in terms of dew points
during this period. As previous forecaster mentioned, Wednesday will
continue to be dry, but, winds should overall be somewhat lighter as
compared to Tuesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 153 PM Sunday...

The forecast becomes more uncertain Wednesday onward, but it appears
a split flow pattern will take hold, with a weakening wave
approaching the area in the southern stream, possibly providing some
light precipitation to the area on Thursday, although model runs
keep trending drier and drier, and pops continue to decrease in this
time period. However, there may be light at the end of the tunnel,
as models continue to indicate a strong system developing and moving
towards the area over the weekend, with good moisture transport from
the Gulf of America region, thus providing a widespread soaking
rainfall to the area, along with the possibility for
thunderstorms.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 140 PM Sunday...

VFR conditions rule the roost through the TAF period under high
pressure. Isolated mountain cumulus this afternoon will then
give way to mostly clear skies tonight into Monday.

Breezy southwest winds this afternoon between 10 to 20kts will
diminish after sunset tonight, then remain light and variable
for the start of the work week.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...MEK
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MEK