507
FXUS61 KRLX 280602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
202 AM EDT Thu Aug 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak, moisture-starved cold front approaches tonight into
Friday bringing a chance for an isolated shower north.
Otherwise, dry conditons continue through next week.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

Many sheltered valley locations subject to cold air drainage
have already seen their temperatures meet their dew points with
temperatures in the 40s across the lower elevations and pockets
of upper 30s in mountain valleys while ridgetops across the
lower elevations remain in the lower to mid 50s at this hour.
Thin mid-level cloud cover drifting through the region
associated with a leading shortwave may limit how much farther
the already saturated locations can dip with additional
depression of dew points via dew. This may also limit formation
of valley fog, although would still expect to see at least some
patches heading into daybreak.

An approaching weak cold front will introduce increasing
southwesterly flow through the day today. Although dry air at
the top of the mixed layer will not be nearly as prolific as it
was yesterday, should still be able to mix dew points across the
middle Ohio Valley down into the upper 30s or lower 30s by late
this morning/early this afternoon yielding RHs in the upper 20
to lower 30s. Despite the dry air, an increase in mid-level
moisture ahead of the front may be sufficient for isolated
showers to develop across our northern counties late this
afternoon and evening, though most of this activity would likely
struggle to reach the ground given the dry lower levels.

The aforementioned cold front will slowly drift south
overnight, likely draped across our northern counties by early
Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

The weak, moisture-starved cold front is expected to push
through the forecast area Friday morning, bringing another surge
of dry, continental air. This will result in a continuation of
pleasant weather through the weekend under dominant high
pressure. Expect mostly sunny skies each day with afternoon high
temperatures in the upper 60s in the mountains to the mid 70s
to lower 80s in the lowlands. Overnight lows will be comfortably
cool, mainly in the upper 40s to lower 50s, with cooler
readings in the mountains.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

The majority of forecast guidance maintains an east coast trough
of some fashion through the remainder of the forecast period
yielding near to below normal temperatures and little chance of
precipitation.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 AM Thursday...

VFR conditions are generally expected through the next 24 hours
outside of some patchy valley fog possible near EKN, CKB, PKB
and CRW. Have only coded some brief IFR impacts for EKN at this
time given thin mid-level cloud cover floating through the
region.

Winds will be calm or light and variable overnight, becoming
west to northwest around 5 to 10 kts during the day.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR/IFR fog could briefly impact CRW, CKB,
or PKB near dawn this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/28/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions possible in patchy river valley fog each morning
through this weekend.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP