187
FXUS61 KRLX 111022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
622 AM EDT Sat Oct 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry conditions today. A coastal low
developing off the Carolinas will bring a chance for light
precipitation to the mountains Sunday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

Already weak downslope flow off the higher terrain associated with
broad high pressure offshore is weakening, and with light winds and
clear skies, areas of dense valley fog have already begun to develop
and will likely become more widespread into sunrise. A weak cold
front located across Indiana and Ohio is expected to wash out as it
moves into the local area later today, with an associated shield of
mid and high level clouds scattering out upon arrival. Otherwise,
expect a dry and pleasant day with high temperatures reaching into
the low to mid 70s for most lowland locations, and into the upper
50s for the higher elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

Considerable uncertainty remains regarding the evolution of a
coastal low pressure system off the Carolina coast and its
interaction with a weak upper trough moving through the Great Lakes
region tonight into Sunday. The operational guidance envelope
continues to show a wide range of solutions, evident in the NBM
interquartile range for 24-hour rainfall totals in Randolph and
Pocahontas counties, which spans from 0.00 to 0.50 inches Sunday
into Monday. For now, the forecast maintains the highest
precipitation chances confined to the eastern mountains and the
windward upslope areas further south, primarily on Sunday into
Sunday night as moisture from the coastal system gets drawn
westward. Rainfall amounts are expected to remain generally light.

As the pressure gradient tightens between the departing high
pressure to the north and the deepening coastal low to the
southeast, winds will increase, particularly across the higher
terrain. Gusts of 20-25 mph are possible in the mountains Sunday
morning. By Monday, the influence of these systems will wane as they
move eastward, allowing drier conditions to return from west to east.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 145 AM Saturday...

An upper-level ridge is forecast to build eastward from the central
United States through the middle of the week, leading to a period of
dry weather and a warming trend. High temperatures will climb into
the mid to upper 70s for the lowlands by Tuesday, which is several
degrees above normal for this time of year.

A northern stream shortwave trough is forecast to dig down the
front of the ridge, pushing a dry cold front through the area
late Wednesday into Thursday. Sensible weather impacts from this
feature appear minimal, aside from ushering in a significantly
cooler and drier airmass. There is some potential for a
widespread frost, or perhaps even a freeze, late in the week.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 AM Saturday...

River valley fog in the vicinity of HTS and PKB could briefly
drift over the fields as low stratus this morning, otherwise VFR
conditions are expected through this evening. Upper level cloud
cover from a coastal low may limit valley fog formation
overnight tonight, especially in the mountains where pressure
gradients should be increasing toward sunrise.

Winds remain light through a bulk of the period, increasing at
the very end of the TAF period in the mountains.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR conditions possible as river valley fog
lifts this morning near HTS/PKB.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
At least patchy IFR valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP