607
FXUS61 KRLX 011735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
135 PM EDT Tue Oct 1 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers remain possible today thanks to the departing remnants
of Helene. A cold front brings additional rain tonight into
Wednesday. Drier weather is expected to end the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1153 AM Tuesday...

Remnants of Helene continues to slowly exit to the east of the
area, with slow moving showers continuing. In addition, widespread
low stratus continues to linger across the area, and generally
expect another night of either fog or low stratus once again, with
some fog potentially developing early, before being scoured out at
some point with approach of the front and increase in winds.
Regardless, another round of showers expected with the cold front,
which will sweep across the area on Wednesday, with much of the area
drying out during the day, although some light rain showers or
drizzle will linger across the higher terrain a little longer.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1238 PM Tuesday...

Generally quiet weather will be represented during this portion
of the forecast in between two cold fronts. Thursday morning
lows will tumble down into the 40s/50s with the help of clearing
skies and radiational cooling. This will be followed by a
decent diurnal rise in the afternoon, with highs extending back
above normal as low level flow becomes firmly established out of
the south.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1238 PM Tuesday...

The long term period opens up with a weak cold frontal passage.
Attributed to this front will be afternoon showers and
thunderstorms lined up along the mountains on Friday. Activity
will quickly fade after sunset.

While active weather festers over the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend, our forecast area will remain relatively dry. Onshore
flow promoted by longwave ridging will keep temperatures a few
degrees above climatological norms, with central lowland
locations reaching the low 80s by Saturday afternoon. The
warming trend continues into Sunday, with the bulk of the lower
elevations observing highs in the 80s.

Global models vary in regards to how the end of the weekend
will fare, with some solutions displaying a trough sending down
a cold front through the Central Appalachians, and others
maintaining dominant high pressure overhead. Central guidance
currently trends with a wetter solution for the start of the new
work week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Widespread MVFR conditions continue to linger in low ceilings
and light rain shower activity. There are breaks in the lower
ceilings, providing brief/intermittent VFR conditions. However,
after 00Z, expect widespread MVFR ceilings and/or fog to develop
once again, gradually deteriorating to widespread IFR and local
LIFR/VLIFR conditions. There is uncertainty as to when the
conditions will start to improve, and will depend on how quickly
drier air, and winds are able to take hold as a cold front
crosses overnight and during the first part of the day
Wednesday, with the potential for areas particularly north of
the Ohio River improving quicker than currently forecast, or,
not deteriorating as much as currently predicted.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and restrictions associated with
fog and low stratus development tonight may vary from forecast.
Fog may not develop in some spots as currently forecast due to
passage of a cold front.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...

Fog expected Thursday and Friday mornings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...SL