672
FXUS61 KRLX 071729
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
129 PM EDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Beneficial rainfall returns to the region today through tonight.
Much cooler and drier high pressure builds in for Wednesday and
Thursday, introducing the potential for frost in some areas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

KEY MESSAGES:

* Widespread rainfall with accumulations of 1 to 2 inches with
  localized amounts near 3 inches expected through tonight.

* Some risk for high water, especially in urban areas and
  locations with poor drainage.

* Significantly cooler and drier air starting Wednesday. High
  temperatures will drop into the 60s, with overnight lows falling
  into the 30s and 40s.

Multiple rounds of rain are anticipated across the forecast area
through tonight. An initial area of moderate rainfall associated
with low-level convergence is currently exiting the northern
portions of the area. A more significant round of rain, focused
along stronger low level convergence ahead of a pre-frontal trough,
is approaching from the west and will serve as the primary rain
producer for most locations this afternoon and evening. This will be
followed by a final, quick-moving line of showers with the cold
front itself overnight.

A deep plume of moisture remains entrenched over the region, with
precipitable water values of 1.5 to 1.9 inches, which is anomalously
high for early October. This abundant moisture, combined with
focused ascent along the trough, will lead to efficient rainfall
processes. The thermodynamic environment shows minimal instability,
suggesting the primary threat is heavy rainfall from warm rain
processes rather than deep convection. Widespread rainfall totals of
1 to 2 inches are expected through tonight, with highly localized
amounts of 3 inches possible where showers and weak embedded
thunderstorms train over the same areas.

These rainfall amounts and rates could lead to rises on small
streams and creeks. While antecedent conditions are generally dry
with most smaller waterways below base flow, isolated flash flooding
will be possible, particularly in urban and poor drainage areas.

A cold front will sweep across the area from west to east overnight,
ending the precipitation by mid-morning Wednesday. The cold front
will exit to the east early Wednesday, ushering in a significantly
cooler and drier continental airmass. Northwest winds will be breezy
at times on Wednesday afternoon, with gusts of 15 to 20 mph possible
as high pressure begins to build in from the Great Lakes. High
temperatures on Wednesday will be noticeably cooler, mainly in the
mid to upper 60s across the lower elevations.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Clearing skies and diminishing winds Wednesday night will allow for
ideal radiational cooling conditions. Lows are expected to drop into
the low to mid 40s for most low-lying areas, and into the 30s in the
mountains. This may result in patchy frost or even some isolated
spots that freeze, especially for areas subject to cold air drainage
in the mountain counties.

High pressure will be centered over upstate New York on Thursday,
providing abundant sunshine. Despite the sun, high temperatures will
struggle to climb out of the mid 60s for most, with 50s in the
highest elevations. The combination of clear skies, calm winds, and
a dry airmass will set the stage for another cold night Thursday
night. Lows are forecast to fall into the upper 30s to low 40s
across the lower elevations, with another, more widespread potential
for frost and/or freeze across the mountains and even into some of
the northern lowlands.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

The long term period will be dominated by surface high pressure,
leading to an extended stretch of dry and tranquil weather. A
warming trend will commence on Friday as the high shifts east,
allowing for a southerly return flow to develop. High temperatures
will return to the upper 60s and low 70s on Friday under sunny skies.

The spectacular fall weather continues through the weekend. Abundant
sunshine is expected both Saturday and Sunday, with high
temperatures climbing into the low to mid 70s. Overnight lows will
also moderate, ending the frost threat for most locations after
Friday morning. The pattern remains dry into the start of next week,
with the next chance for precipitation holding off until at least
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 125 PM Tuesday...

Widespread rain with isolated embedded thunderstorms will result in
deteriorating flight conditions through tonight. At  this time
convection at any given TAF site is too low for PROB30/TEMPO or FM
groups containing thunder.

A cold front will cross the terminals from northwest to southeast
between 06Z and 12Z Wednesday. This passage will be accompanied by a
wind shift to the northwest and a final band of showers. Post-
frontal IFR/MVFR stratus will likely linger into Wednesday morning
before VFR conditions return by the afternoon as drier air filters
in.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The primary uncertainty revolves around the
exact timing and location of the heaviest rainfall this afternoon
and evening, which could lead to more prolonged or widespread IFR
conditions than currently forecast in the TAFs.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
EDT 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
At least patchy IFR morning valley fog is possible each morning
beginning Thursday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP