592
FXUS61 KRLX 181802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
202 PM EDT Fri Apr 18 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Mostly dry and warmer to end the work week. A series of
disturbances keep rain and storms in the forecast this weekend
and early next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 152 PM Friday...

Winds will continue to increase through this evening as a cold front
approaches form the northwest through Saturday morning. Showers and
thunderstorms will be possible ahead and along the front. Model
consensus suggests bulk of precipitation will stay along and west of
the OH River into Saturday evening. Have chance PoPs across the
northern half of the CWA on Saturday. SPC highlighted portions
of SE OH into a Marginal Risk for Severe thunderstorms, and
general thunder elsewhere.

A warm night in on tap under strong WAA. Expect lows to be in the
60s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s higher elevations.
Very warm temperatures for Saturday afternoon, reaching the mid 80s
across the lowlands, and into the lower 70s northeast mountains.

The combination of warm temperatures, dry conditions and gusty winds
poses a threat for rapid fire spread this afternoon and evening. A
special weather statement is in effect for the entire area until 8
PM.

In collaboration with neighboring offices and the KY Division of
Forestry, Issued a Red Flag Warning for NE Kentucky until 8 PM
this evening, where sustained winds are particularly stronger
that the rest of the area.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

A nebulous frontal zone is expected to be draped across our area
Saturday night into Sunday. Guidance does not have an especially
good handle on the exact positioning with WRF based guidance
generally indicating better progress to the south Saturday night
while GFS/ECMWF would keep the effective boundary farther north.
Overall impacts to sensible weather shouldn`t be too significant
with only some light showers expected in the vicinity of the frontal
zone on Sunday.

Low pressure emerging from the Southern Rockies Saturday night and
tracking up the Missouri Valley during the day Sunday will yield the
aforementioned nebulous boundary lifting back to the north as a warm
front either late Sunday afternoon or Sunday night. Elevated
instability along and ahead of this feature looks pretty meager, but
couldn`t rule out a few showers or possibly a thunderstorm lifting
north Monday morning. Afternoon highs Sunday will largely be driven
by this boundary with highs in the lower to mid 80s south of the
front and mid to upper 70s north of it. Given the spread in model
guidance, will defer to central guidance which would put this
delineation roughly just north of the Metro Valley. For those
south of the boundary this represents highs around 15 degrees
above normal values for this time of the year.

Despite some degree of negative tilt with the parent trough, don`t
see too much cold air spreading in aloft ahead of frontal passage
Monday afternoon/evening. This should keep mid-level lapse rates on
the tame side reducing conditional instability. Will need to
continue to monitor both mid-level lapse rates, available low level
moisture immediately ahead of the front and ultimate frontal timing
but severe potential, but for now would assess a lower end risk of
some stronger storms for Monday afternoon/Monday evening.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Precipitation associated with the cold front is expected to exit
Monday night or early Tuesday morning depending on ultimate frontal
timing.

High zonal flow is then expected for the balance of Tuesday into
Wednesday with mainly dry conditions before mid-level heights begin
to build ahead of the next southern stream system. Model
consistency is rather poor mid-week and beyond with significant
spreads opening up in interquartile fields of central guidance.
Will largely defer to deterministic central guidance as is
through the remainder of the period given low confidence. This
yields a forecast with temperatures generally remaining above
normal, with conditions becoming increasingly unsettled heading
into the end of the week.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 127 PM Friday...

Widespread VFR conditions will continue over our local terminals as
a departing high pressure continues its influence over our
area. Winds will increase and become gusty this afternoon and
evening as a cold front approaches from the northwest. Expect
southeast winds gusting 20 to 29 knots through tonight.

Local soundings suggest low-level jet, bringing 50 knots at H850 and
40-45 knots at 2kft. These winds will likely produce LLWS, especially
when the lower atmosphere decouples perhaps by late evening or overnight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief periods of IFR conditions possible in heavier showers or
storms Saturday afternoon and evening. Patchy fog possible
Sunday morning, mainly north.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM EDT this evening for KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...ARJ