282
FXUS61 KRLX 041331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
931 AM EDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A quasi-stationary frontal system brings showers and storms at
times through the weekend, with flooding increasingly likely for
the Mid-Ohio Valley region. Dry weather finally returns Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 930 AM Friday...

Repetitive rounds of training showers and elevated storms have
formed across the area this morning along and just south of a
stalled frontal boundary, which currently resides generally
along a line from KHTS to KCKB, as high moisture content air
continues to be pumped into the area, with a wave moving along
the front this morning enhancing activity. This has resulted in
a solid inch to inch and a quarter or rain, particularly across
the southern coal fields and western zones overnight/this
morning. With additional rounds of showers and storms expected
later this afternoon before the frontal boundary lifts north,
and with the ongoing event, the office has elected to expand the
flood watch in both coverage and duration.

Otherwise, no significant changes were necessary at this time,
other than did elect to drop high temperatures today across the
north slightly from inherited forecast as feel boundary will be
slow to move, leaving much of that area cooler under northerly
flow. After initial wave moves east we may see a brief decrease
in the precipitation coverage later this morning/early
afternoon, before additional storms form later this afternoon
and evening. Some of which could be strong with a damaging wind
threat.


As of 640 AM Friday...

Radar imagery shows numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain, moving east across NE KY,
SE OH and most parts of WV this morning. Expect this activity to
diminish in coverage by mid morning or early afternoon as the
stationary frontal boundary oscillates north later this
afternoon and evening. Rest of forecast remains on track.

As of 235 AM Friday...

Key Points:

 * Frontal boundary stalls over the southern WV coalfields through
Friday night promoting periods of moderate to heavy rain.

 * Flooding risk continues through the weekend amid additional
rainfall on top of already saturated soils.

Frontal boundary has returned southeast as a cold front,
pushing areas of moderate to heavy rain across NE Kentucky, SE
Ohio and W West Virginia late overnight into early Friday
morning. These areas have received widespread 1 to 2 inches of
rainfall during the last 24 hours. Several creek and small
streams have experienced rapid raises in water levels, and some
others have reached minor and moderate flood stages. Additional
rainfall (1 to 2 inches) will deteriorate existing flooding
concerns. Flood warnings across the area will likely need to be
extended in time to account for the incoming rainfall over
already saturated soils. A slight risk for excessive rainfall
exists through 8 AM Friday morning. A flash flood watch remains
in effect through Sunday.

Radar imagery shows scattered to numerous showers with embedded
thunderstorms moving east across the OH River at the moment of
writing. This rainfall activity will persist across the Tri-
state area and central and southern WV through this afternoon.

There may be a lull in showers and storms as the frontal
boundary stalls across the southern WV coalfields this
afternoon, but another punch of showers and strong
thunderstorms will be possible over the same area by 5 PM
Friday. Guidance suggests rainfall continuing into Friday night
with additional shortwaves.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 411 AM Friday...

Showers and thunderstorms will be likely Saturday as the
stalled boundary propagates southeastward, primarily across
western WV, SE Ohio, and NE KY. Some of these storms could be
severe with damaging winds, large hail, and even an isolated
tornado, given favorable 0-6km shear of around 50kts and at
least modest elevated instability. There is a slight risk
highlighted across portions of far western SE Ohio and NE KY,
with a marginal adjacent across the rest of SE Ohio and western
WV, similar to the last few nights. In addition to severe
thunderstorms, heavy rain is likely to continue, exacerbating
flooding concerns in areas that continue to see repeated
rainfall, where WPC has highlighted a slight risk for excessive
rainfall across the western third of our CWA, with a marginal
across portions of central WV.

Sunday will likely begin with an area of showers/thunderstorms
across western portions of our area or even just west of our
CWA. The initial surge of this activity has the potential to be
severe, primarily with damaging winds as the cold front is
finally ejected eastward by a stronger upper level trough,
putting an end to significant rainfall for our area, although
elevated creeks, streams, and rivers will likely persist into
early next week in some locations. Given this potential, SPC has
highlighted areas east of the Ohio River in a marginal risk for
severe weather Sunday, with damaging winds and perhaps an
isolated tornado possible as a line of storms slides through
the area.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 411 AM Friday...

The extended period will be much cooler and drier thanks to
aforementioned deep upper level trough. Temperatures for Monday
and Tuesday will be much below normal with Tuesday likely being
the colder of the two days. High temperatures Monday will be
generally in the low to mid 50`s across the lowlands and upper
30`s to low 40`s across the mountains and Tuesday high`s across
the lowlands will be in the mid to upper 40`s with much cooler
temperatures in the upper 20`s to low 30`s across the
northeastern WV mountains.

The next chance of precipitation will be late Monday night into
early Tuesday, associated with the trough as cold air advection
squeezes out some moisture in the form of light showers and even
perhaps some rain/snow mix. No snow accumulations are expected
with this activity. After that, a warming trend should begin
Wednesday into the end of the extended period as warm air
advection increases ahead of the next approaching low pressure
system, subsequently increasing chances for precipitation by
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 640 AM Friday...

Quasi-stationary frontal boundary has moved along the southern
coalfields of WV early this morning. A cluster of thunderstorms is
likely to affect BKW early this morning, followed by scattered
showers. Precipitation activity is expected to diminish in coverage
this afternoon as the frontal boundary lifts north as a warm front.

MVFR ceilings under low stratus should develop after showers and
storms. Otherwise, conditions will gradually improve outside storms
or showers through this afternoon. However, another batch of
convection is suggested by CAMs guidance to lift north with the warm
front, spreading convection once again across SE OH, NE KY and
western WV by this evening. Brief periods of IFR/LIFR conditions
possible under heavy or moderate rain.

Models do show a bit of a break after 16Z Friday, but deteriorating
conditions will return with another round of heavy showers moving
into the area this evening into Saturday.

Variable to calm winds early this morning will have a northerly
component north of the front, and southwesterly south of the front.
Heavy rain and strong gusty winds will accompany the stronger
storms.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of
thunderstorms and heavy rain may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    L

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions possible in showers and thunderstorms tonight
through Sunday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>032-039-040-517-519>522-525-526.
OH...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...Flood Watch through Sunday evening for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...ARJ