515
FXUS61 KRLX 121916
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
316 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A coastal low brings the chance for isolated showers across the
mountains through tonight, with dry conditions elsewhere. Area-
wide dry weather returns for the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

The region finds itself under a mixture of clear (far west) to
overcast (southeast) skies this afternoon as a 996 mb coastal
low works northeast just off the North Carolina coast. This
system will continue to slowly shift northeast through Monday,
gradually interacting/absorbing an upper level disturbance
currently across the northeast. Locally, this results in mainly
increased cloud cover today/tonight, along with the potential
for ISOLD showers/sprinkles in and near the mountains, with the
`best` potential (30-40%) being along the eastern slopes of the
mountains with upslope flow. Dry weather returns on Monday
outside of a highly isolated shower/sprinkle across the
northeast mountains, with mostly sunny skies central/west, while
mostly cloudy skies linger across the northeast as the
aforementioned upper disturbance pivots through.

High temperatures today will range from the upper 60s to mid 70s
across the lowlands, with 50s to mid 60s in the mountains. Lows
tonight will be in the 40s for the vast majority of the CWA.
River valley fog will once again develop tonight, especially
across the lowlands, southern coalfields, and southwest Virginia.
Fog will be dense in spots, likely being stubborn to burn off
Monday morning given the time of year. High temperatures on
Monday will be similar to that of today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

Area-wide dry weather persists through the short term period as
upper-level ridging tries to build into the region Monday night
and Tuesday. A weak shortwave on the periphery of the ridge
will then push a dry cold front through the region late Tuesday
night into Wednesday. Above normal temperatures on Tuesday (~ 5
degrees) amid mostly sunny skies will transition to near normal
on Wednesday given the front passing through with increased
cloud cover. Lows Monday and Tuesday nights will be near normal,
with 40s progged for most of the forecast area. River valley
fog will be possible each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 300 PM Sunday...

Building/traversing surface high pressure following the passage
of the aforementioned cold front will result in a continuation
of widespread dry weather Wednesday night into Saturday amid
mostly clear skies given rather dry low/mid levels. High
temperatures on Thursday will be ~ 5 degrees below normal, with
60s across the lowlands, while 50s in the mountains. A favorable
radiational cooling setup Wednesday/Thursday nights will result
in frost potential, especially on Thursday night when widespread
30s are expected across the forecast area, with upper 20s
across the mountain valleys, perhaps even some of the typical
lowland cold spots. River valley steam fog is also expected
given a large water/air temperature difference.

A warming trend will begin on Friday as high pressure shifts
east and return flow begins in advance of the next disturbance
approaching from the west. High temperatures on Friday will
sneak above normal, with well above normal temperatures
currently progged for Saturday, nearing 80 in some locations.
While well down the road, continued dry conditions throughout
the work week may lead to at least slightly elevated fire
weather conditions by late in the work week and particularly
the weekend as the pressure gradient tightens in advance of the
next system, with the next chance for rain not until late
Saturday or Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 150 PM Sunday...

Mainly VFR conditions persist today amid SCT to OVC skies across
the mountains and portions of the lowlands. MVFR CIGs are
possible across the mountains, with MVFR CIGs progged for BKW,
while potentially affecting EKN. ISOLD showers/sprinkles are
possible into tonight in/near the mountains, but are not
anticipated to result in any VSBY restrictions.

Restrictions will become more widespread overnight courtesy of
river valley fog and some stratus (in the mountains). Overall,
fog coverage is expected to be more widespread than last night,
with LIFR/VLIFR restrictions currently progged for CRW/HTS/PKB.
MVFR restrictions are also progged for BKW/EKN, but more so due
to low stratus. Fog/stratus slowly lifts/dissipates throughout
Monday morning, with a return to VFR from ~13-15Z. MVFR stratocu
may linger at EKN through the TAF period.

Flow will be somewhat variable today, but in general will have a
NE`rly component. Gusts between 15 and 20 knots are possible at
CKB/EKN/PKB. Calm or light NNE flow is expected tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and extent of restrictions
overnight into Monday morning with river valley fog and low
stratus may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
Patchy IFR river valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...GW
NEAR TERM...GW
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...GW