434
FXUS61 KRLX 100953
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
553 AM EDT Thu Oct 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry and near seasonable for the work week, with some patchy
frost and river valley fog possible in the mornings. Next rain
chances arrive Saturday night and Sunday. Cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Thursday...

Dry and cool weather continues through the near term, with patchy
river valley fog possible each morning but likely to be less
widespread this morning due to stronger flow. Frost Advisories are
currently in effect until 9AM this morning for most of northern WV
and SE Ohio. Frost Advisories are in effect for Thursday night into
Friday morning for eastern and northern WV east of a line from
Charleston to Parkersburg, including from McDowell to Fayette
counties eastward. A Freeze Warning was issued for Pocahontas and
Randolph counties until 9AM, given current temperature and dew point
trends for tonight and the likely widespread nature of the hazard in
these areas due to the very dry cold air, lower 925mb flow, and
clear skies leading to efficient radiational cooling.

River valley fog returns again overnight Thursday into Friday and is
likely to be more widespread given very light flow and clear skies,
as well as colder temperatures. This could lead to some reduced
visibility in some areas.

Outside of the frost and fog risk, not much else is expected as we
remain mainly clear and more seasonably cool Thursday with high
temperatures in the mid to upper 60`s everywhere but the mountains,
where high temperatures will likely be in the low to mid 50`s. Some
breezy conditions with gusts to 15mph are possible Thursday across
the mountains under a general northeast flow before turning more
northerly and then calm overnight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

For Friday, a ridge aloft at 500MB and high pressure at the surface
continuing the dry weather stretch and maintaining clear skies.
Morning low temperatures will be the coldest thus far, with
most locations seeing lows in the 30s; would not be surprised if
a few sheltered mountain valleys drop into the 20s with strong
radiational cooling. Did trend closer to the 18th percentile
temperatures to reflect this.

Patchy to widespread frost is likely across a bulk of the area
Friday morning as a result. Looking at the possibility of a freeze
in the higher elevations of the mountains. There is a freeze watch
in effect for Pocahontas and Randolph counties from 2 AM until 10 AM
Friday, as confidence is fairly high in temperatures being at or
below freezing Friday morning.

Otherwise, a quiet and pleasant Autumn day is expected for Friday
with fairly mild and seasonable temperatures. The lowlands will
see high temperatures in the upper 60s to mid 70s, while the
mountains will stay in the 60s and lower 70s. RH values will be
on the drier side, mostly in the 30s with a few locations seeing
percentages in the upper 20s.

Lows Friday night and Saturday morning will be less cold with most
locations staying in the 40s compared to the 30s expected the
previous night. A few valley locations in the higher terrain
could see some patchy frost.

Mostly dry through Saturday with some passing clouds. A warming
trend will start with southwesterly flow taking over. Highs in
the 70s, even around 80 across parts of the lowlands, will be
common. A cold front also approaches from the north Saturday as
high pressure shifts south, allowing for shower/thunderstorm
chances to creep into our southeastern Ohio counties Saturday
night. Front will stall across our northern periphery Saturday
night into Sunday leaving the area in the warm sector for
Sunday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 315 AM Thursday...

Sunday will be warm and breezy, thanks to the warm sector. Shower
and thunderstorm chances increase from north to south through the
day as a low pressure system tracks to our north. Severe potential
is nearly non-existent with barely any CAPE and shear remaining to
our north. There is a chance for a few thunderstorms ahead of the
cold front, mostly across portions of southeast Ohio and the
northern lowlands of West Virginia.

The aforementioned cold front will cross late Sunday afternoon into
Sunday night resulting in another noticeable, yet colder temperature
change starting Monday. Post-frontal westerly winds look breezy to
gusty Sunday night and Monday. Currently, gusts remain below Wind
Advisory criteria, but will have to see how the models trend.

The first flakes of the season are possible across the higher
elevations of the northern mountains Monday night into Tuesday
morning with a strong wave that will drop down out of Great
Lakes. Most likely this will be in the form of some dry, upslope
flurries. Not expecting accumulations or anything impactful at
this time as this is still past the range for forecast accuracy.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 550 AM Thursday...

Some river valley fog will impact KEKN and potentially KHTS and
KCRW through early this morning, leading to MVFR/IFR/LIFR
conditions briefly with fog dissipating by 14Z. Otherwise, VFR
conditions will prevail today. Breezy conditions at KBKW/KEKN in
the mountains this afternoon with gusts of 10-15kts possible.
More widespread river valley fog is expected to develop
overnight Thursday into Friday morning, leading to potential
IFR/LIFR restrictions, mainly near KEKN, KCRW, KHTS, and KPKB,
with lower confidence elsewhere.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low for fog. Otherwise, high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Coverage and timing of fog may vary from
the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 10/10/24
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in river valley fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for WVZ007>011-
     016>020-027>032-039-040-519>526.
     Frost Advisory from midnight tonight to 9 AM EDT Friday for
     WVZ010-011-016>020-027>034-039-040-515>522.
     Freeze Warning from 1 AM to 9 AM EDT Friday for WVZ523>526.
OH...Frost Advisory until 9 AM EDT this morning for OHZ067-075-076-
     083>086.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...28/RPY
SHORT TERM...LTC
LONG TERM...LTC
AVIATION...28/RPY