Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV
837 FXUS61 KRLX 040519 AFDRLX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Charleston WV 119 AM EDT Sun Oct 4 2026 .WHAT HAS CHANGED... 06Z aviation discussion. No significant changes to the previous forecast package. && .KEY MESSAGES... 1) Showers linger to the southeast the rest of this weekend, then cooler and drier conditions set in for the new work week. Early morning frost may be possible Tuesday and Wednesday mornings. && .DISCUSSION... KEY MESSAGE 1... A low pressure system associated with a triple point is sitting just off to our south slowly traversing east. This feature has a trough along the mountains which is promoting some instances of light rain across the higher elevations. Among the rain, low clouds are prevalent along the feature as well. As this meandering frontal boundary associated with the parent low pressure system lingers about, the rest of the weekend could look at chances of rain shower activity across the southern portions of the CWA. This feature along with another wave of low pressure forecast to ride along the boundary will maintain chances of rain showers confined to this sector of the CWA through Sunday afternoon. By Sunday afternoon, a low pressure system traverses across the Great Lakes and brings a reinforcing moisture starved cold front through prompting the boundary to our south to push off and out of the region to where chances of rain diminish. This will also prompt cooler and drier conditions across the entire area going through midweek. A chance for frost is possible in the northeast mountains this Tuesday morning and even possibly Wednesday morning. Enough surface flow will be suppressed along with low cloud coverage to initiate some frost development where valleys drop in the mid to upper 30s across the northeast mountains. High pressure will maintain settled weather for the rest of the week and possibly beyond with below seasonable temperatures expected. The next chance for precipitation will be next Saturday with only a slight chance of rain along the mountains. && .AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... Patchy fog may be possible at a few locations this morning, though MVFR or worse restrictions are more likely to occur as a result of low ceilings. Sub-VFR conditions should linger at BKW much of the day while the rest of the area returns to VFR. Conditions will once again deteriorate in fog and low stratus after 00Z. While winds are generally expected to be calm to light, stronger flow over the mountains could prompt a few gusts into the teens at BKW. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of restrictions from fog/stratus may vary from the forecast. Timing of improvement may also vary. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE SUN 10/04/26 UTC 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 EDT 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 CRW CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H L H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M L H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z MONDAY... IFR possible in fog Monday morning. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...None. OH...None. KY...None. VA...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...JZ AVIATION...20