160
FXUS61 KRLX 092353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
653 PM EST Sat Nov 9 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure exits tonight. A low pressure system brings a wet
finish to the weekend. Mainly dry weather returns Monday through
Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 140 PM Saturday...

High pressure with its very dry air exerting its influence over
the area this afternoon, moves away from the area tonight.
Downslope associated with large scale low level southeast flow
around the high, which was centered to the northeast of the
area, over the northeastern states, was mitigated only by an
inverted trough over the area, keeping the flow a
topographically neutral northeast northwest of the mountains,
and upslope southeast along the southeast-facing slopes. Despite
this mitigation of downslope flow, RH values were already in
the 20s in spots, and these values will become more widespread
this afternoon.

The inverted trough fades tonight, although nocturnal backing
and decoupling may keep surface winds light northeast.

High clouds will continue to increase this afternoon, and then
lower and thicken tonight, followed rain Sunday as a low
pressure system tracks across the Great Lakes. The lower levels
will not moisten up in ernest until first thing Sunday morning,
when rain from the middeck begins reaching the ground.

GOES-R imagery suggests at least some moisture being pulled
northward out of tropical system Rafael over the northern Gulf
of Mexico, and rainfall potential Sunday depends upon how much
moisture gets absorbed into the system moving into the midwest
tonight, before low level flow associated with this system
becomes decoupled from the Gulf as the system crosses the Great
Lakes on Sunday.

PW values are progged to reach at least 1.5 inches, which is at
the top of the climatological maximum for this time of year.
While forecast rainfall amounts have backed off a bit, a solid
wetting rain of greater than a tenth of an inch is expected for
all but perhaps far southeast portions of the area through
Sunday, with amounts of up around an inch over the middle Ohio
Valley, where rainfall will be most persistent.

Cloud cover will make for a milder night tonight, compared with
last night, but the rain will hold highs Sunday to near normal,
with a slow daytime rise.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

Scattered rain showers will continue Sunday night in advance of
and along a crossing cold front, with a rumble or two of thunder
not out of the question early Sunday night. Additional rain
amounts up to half an inch are possible Sunday night, with the
highest amounts expected in/near the higher terrain. Low
temperatures Sunday night will range from the mid 40s to mid
50s amid breezy conditions, particularly in the mountains where
gusts of 25-35 mph will be possible. Showers should by and large
exit the area by dawn on Monday morning, with perhaps some
isolated showers lingering in/near the mountains until noon Monday.

Mainly dry weather will then prevail through the remainder of
the short term period. A weak and moisture starved cold front
will cross early on Tuesday. Much of the forecast area will
remain dry, with perhaps a few showers possible across the
northern mountains. High temperatures on Monday will be in the
60s across the lowlands, with 50s in the mountains, while
Tuesday will feature mid 50s to low 60s in the lowlands, with
40s to low 50s in the mountains. Both days will feature a decent
amount of sunshine, particularly on Tuesday. Mostly clear skies
on Tuesday night will allow for chilly temperatures - upper 20s
to upper 30s across the lowlands, with mid 20s to low 30s in the
mountains. Some river valley fog is expected to develop late
Tuesday night.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 255 PM Saturday...

Mainly dry weather is expected for the extended period. Lingering
high pressure on Wednesday brings dry conditions to begin the
period, with the chance for showers returning Wednesday night
into Thursday as another cold front crosses through the region.
Rain amounts are anticipated to be on the light side, generally
a quarter of an inch or less. Traversing high pressure then
brings a return of dry conditions for late Thursday and Friday.

Temperatures are progged to be above normal throughout the
period, particularly on Wednesday in advance of the front (highs
in the 60s across the lowlands), with a return to slightly above
normal for Thursday/Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 649 PM Saturday...

A high pressure system looses its influence over the local
region, as it exits northeast of the Appalachians overnight.
This will provide a relatively quite night in terms of aviation
restrictions and winds.

Meanwhile, a cold front will approach from the west on Sunday,
tightening up the pressure gradient and increasing winds aloft
as it arrives to the Middle OH valley by 03Z Sunday night. High
clouds will thicken down to about 5,000 feet across SE OH, NE
KY and western WV by 12Z Sunday. Ceilings will continue to
lower into MVFR/IFR under rain showers ahead of the front Sunday
afternoon and evening.

Hi-res models and ensemble models suggest the onset of such
precipitation will arrive to our western terminals as light rain
by 09Z Sunday morning. Showers will increase in intensity and
coverage by 17Z, as they spread east to affect the rest of
terminals. Timed thunderstorms with PROB30 groups at HTS, PKB,
CKB and EKN, coding gusty winds up to 30 knots under IFR
conditions, using the deterministic guidance as they seems to be
in good agreement.

Current light northeast winds will gradually veer from the east
tonight and from the southeast on Sunday. South southwest H850
winds currently at 20 knots will gradually increase to 40 knots
by 15Z, and around 50 knots by 18Z. These winds will likely
produce surface gusty winds up to 30 knots as they mix down in
showers or storms as shown in Bufkit sounding momentum transfer.
Low Level Wind Shear could develop Sunday afternoon through at
least midnight.

Guidance looks pessimistic keeping IFR/LIFR conditions behind
the front by the end of the period.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High through 12Z. Medium 14Z through 23Z
Sunday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Worse case scenario with LIFR ceilings
across most sites spreading east by Sunday afternoon and
evening. Timing and intensity of showers or storms may vary from
forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain Sunday night, and into Monday morning in
lingering stratus.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Air Quality Alert until midnight EST tonight for WVZ005-006-
     013>015-024>026-033-034-515>518.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...TRM/GW
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...GW
LONG TERM...GW
AVIATION...ARJ