409
FXUS61 KRLX 070703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
203 AM EST Sun Dec 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today. A series of disturbances bring rain or snow showers
this evening, and widespread wintry mix changing to snow Sunday
night into Monday. A warmer, breezier system impacts the region
by midweek.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 202 AM Sunday...

Surface high pressure shifting east will maintain dry, mostly cloudy
conditions today. A decaying low-pressure system arrives this
evening, pushing a moisture-starved cold front through the region.
This will result in low ceilings and light precipitation, which will
transition to light snow tonight due to strong cold air advection.
Highs this afternoon will generally be in the 40s, and lows in the
20s tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 202 AM Sunday...

Lingering snow showers, mainly along the mountains, will gradually
end Monday afternoon. Most areas will see accumulations under 1
inch, though the central mountains may see high-end localized
amounts of 2 to 3 inches.

Temperatures will plummet behind the cold front on Monday. Highs
will struggle to reach the mid 30s in the lowlands and the low 20s
in the northeast mountains. Monday night will turn very cold, with
lows dropping to the lower 20s in far southern WV and SW VA, and
into the teens across SE Ohio and northern WV. Any remaining
mountain snow showers will end quickly Monday night as the base
of the trough exits the region.

On Tuesday, high pressure building along the eastern mountains will
create southwest breezes, warming temperatures back to normal levels
(40s in the lowlands and upper 20s in the mountains).

By late Tuesday night into Wednesday, a cold front associated with a
strong clipper system tracking across the Great Lakes will bring the
next chance for precipitation. Precipitation will start as liquid,
transitioning into a wintry mix Wednesday night and Thursday.

A warmer, breezier system impacts the region by midweek. Expect
near to above normal temperatures Wednesday and Thursday.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 202 AM Sunday...

A series of disturbances will move through our area towards
the end of the week. Thursday will likely see a sloppy mix of
rain and snow for most of us, with all snow expected in the
northeast mountains. Much colder air rushes in Thursday night,
turning any leftover precipitation to snow by Friday.

Prepare for a deep freeze heading into the weekend. Highs on Friday
will struggle to reach the mid 30s. By the weekend, temperatures
drop even further, with daytime highs only in the low to mid 20s for
the lowlands and dipping into the teens or single digits in the
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 1234 AM Sunday...

MVFR/IFR stratocumulus deck, evident on satellite and METARs,
will gradually lift north, allowing for clear skies across the
southern coalfields, including BKW at the time of writing.

This sets up a VFR Monday afternoon, except perhaps for the
afternoon return of MVFR stratocu at PKB and CKB, as a cold
front arrives tonight with light precipitation.

Calm wind overnight will become light from north northeast on
Sunday. Light west to southwest flow aloft tonight will become
light to moderate west Sunday morning, and then light northwest
Sunday afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of transition from MVFR to VFR
overnight into Sunday morning, could vary by a couple of hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 12/07/25
UTC 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
EST 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR possible in rain/snow Sunday night into Monday morning, and
then again Wednesday night and Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ