029
FXUS61 KRLX 120628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
228 AM EDT Mon May 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers and storms return for the first half of the work week
with some containing heavy downpours. Risk for severe storms
increases late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 205 AM Monday...

Key Points:

* Return to active weather today, but severe threat remains low
  (but not zero)

* Very isolated high water issues possible in any slow moving
  thunderstorms, but rainfall will be largely beneficial

A southern stream jet streak along the Gulf Coast will help to get
the stubborn area of low pressure that has been stationed over the
Lower Mississippi Valley through the weekend moving toward the Ohio
Valley today. For our area, the main highlight of the day will be
ascent associated with the nose of the aforementioned jet streak
moving northward this morning through late this afternoon atop a
plume of precipitable water values associated with both the general
low circulation (Gulf enhanced) as well as a higher quality plume
over the Atlantic Coastal Plain (Gulf and Caribbean enhanced). This
should serve to spark widespread showers lifting northward across
the region this morning into early this evening. Instability will be
rather limited, perhaps a couple hundred MUCAPE across most of the
region with some localized pockets approaching 1000J/kg in NE KY
away from the stronger synoptic forcing where some breaks to
sunshine will be possible. Given veered low level flow, modest
deep layer shear, and tight surface dew point depressions
across this area, will need to keep an eye on any stronger
convective cores that can manage to develop this afternoon for a
very limited tornado threat.

Overall, central guidance seems to have a decent handle on
precipitation today, especially in 6/12hr PoP blocks, although
hourly guidance is probably a little bit too high given focusing
of stronger forcing. Will mix in CAMs to provide more focus to
hourly PoPs with minimal additional changes. Precipitation
amounts during the day look fairly light, perhaps a couple
tenths of an inch on a basin average basis but couldn`t rule out
some locally higher amounts in slow moving convection.

Overnight, should see decreasing precipitation chances from west to
east as ascent slowly shifts east, however with the low circulation
progressively inching toward us couldn`t rule out some additional
isolated showers through the overnight for much of the region. The
heaviest rain overnight will fall mainly east of our area along the
Atlantic Coastal plain - should largely see the better quality
moisture over there being squeezed out along the Blue Ridge, but
any remnant enhanced moisture will also be squeezed out on our
windward slopes on southeasterly flow. Could see rainfall totals
approaching 1.5 inches along eastern Pocahontas County by
Tuesday morning and this will be largely beneficial rainfall.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 226 AM Monday...

Key Points:

 * A slow moving disturbance yields potential for showers and
   thunderstorms through at least midweek.

 * Dry soil conditions will gradually be inundated with bursts
   of heavy rainfall, and could impose local high water issues.

A vertically stacked low pressure system will move slowly over the
KY/TN Valley by Tuesday, and then cross east of our area by
Wednesday. This feature will maintain periods of showers and
thunderstorms, some with heavy rain across the area. The heavier
rainfall accumulations are expected to occur along the eastern
mountains. From 0.50 to 2 inches can be expected through this
period.

The severity risk remains in question due to previous dry days.
However, there will be a growing concern for high water issues as
precipitation masks the area for an extended period of time.
Repetitive showers over the same area may lead to flooding problems
as well. WPC maintains a marginal risk across most of the area, with
slight risk for excessive rainfall east of the mountains.

Abundant cloudiness and cooling showers will keep temperatures
slightly above normal for Tuesday. A slight warm up can be expected
on Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 226 AM Monday...

Key Points:

 * Renewed showers and storms possible by the second half of the
   day Thursday after a brief stint of dry weather.

 * Decent signal for strong to possible severe thunderstorms
   Thursday afternoon and evening.

The pesky low pressure system finally becomes an open wave and exits
east of the area Wednesday night into Thursday. Showers and storms
will diminish in coverage and intensity Wednesday night, tapering
off by early Thursday.

Yet, another low pressure moves across the Great Lakes Thursday and
Friday. An extended cold front will approach from the west on
Thursday, pushing showers and storms while the area remains on the
warm sector of the system. Although severe thunderstorms are not
currently expected, some storms could be strong and produce heavy
downpours along their path.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 210 AM Monday...

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected to spread
north across the forecast area today with ceilings progressively
lowering as the column moistens. Rainfall rates don`t look too
hefty, so would expect visibility to remain generally 5 miles or
greater outside of any heavier downpours. Instability will be
rather limited this afternoon, but will code some VCTS for now for
the southern terminals. Should see a lull in precipitation this
evening into the overnight from west to east as stronger forcing
exits the region.

Winds generally eastern 5-10KT, except southeasterly 10-15KT with
gusts up to 25KTs northwest of the higher terrain in southeasterly
downslope.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Progressively lowering ceiling timing could
vary by a couple hours today. Could eventually need TEMPO for
TSRA, mainly south.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 05/12/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions linger in the mountains through Tuesday morning.
IFR conditions are possible under afternoon convection on
Tuesday, Wednesday, and Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JP