102
FXUS61 KRLX 051716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
116 PM EDT Sat Jul 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure promotes dry, but hot weather through the
holiday weekend. A weak cold front brings back the chance
for showers and thunderstorms to begin the new work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

Dry and hot conditions can be expected through this period courtesy
of a dome of high pressure at the surface and aloft.

After a hot afternoon, muggy conditions will continue this evening
under temperatures and dewpoints in the mid to upper 60s. Clearing
skies and near calm flow at night may allow for some river valley
fog development through Sunday morning.

Relatively stable conditions will prevent thunderstorm from
forming over our area on Sunday. However, to the west in Ohio,
an increase in atmospheric moisture will create more unstable
conditions, making thunderstorms more likely there.

For Sunday afternoon, expect temperatures in the mid 90s across the
lowlands, ranging into the upper 70s northeast mountains. With
afternoon dewpoints mixing down into the mid 60s, most places will
experience heat index values below the 100 degree mark across the
lowlands, below advisory criteria.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

By Sunday night, the upper level ridge breaks down, allowing for
shortwaves and a cold front to move into the OH Valley and the
Appalachian region through at least mid week.

Confidence runs medium to low as models show different solutions on
the evolution of Tropical Storm Chantal. On one hand have remnants
of Chantal bringing showers or storms across the eastern mountains
by late Monday (per Canadian model). Other models take Chantal
further east of the Appalachians with minimum influence over our
local area.

On the other hand, have a cold front approaching slowly from the
north Monday afternoon. Diurnal convection, ample low level moisture
and poor deep layered shear should promote slow-moving showers and
storms, some producing very heavy rain and associated localized
flooding problems. WPC highlights a marginal risk for excessive
rainfall across NE KY, SE OH and portions of WV on Monday.

Dewpoints increase ahead of front into the mid 70s Monday afternoon.
With temperatures reaching the mid 90s, expect heat indexes to reach
100 over some spots across the lowlands. A heat advisory may be
needed for portions of SE OH and the WV lowlands for Monday
afternoon and evening.

The cold front stalls over the area on Tuesday, keeping good chances
for showers and storms driven by diurnal heating. Again, with poor
deep layered shear, storms will be slow moving and heavy rain
efficient.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Saturday...

The unsettled pattern continues as the stationary boundary interacts
with the moist and unstable airmass. Expect continued chances for
showers and storms through the day. Cloud cover will likely keep
afternoon temperatures in lower 90s across the lowlands, ranging
into the mid 70s northeast mountains.

The front oscillates over the area Wednesday through Friday. This
frontal boundary will serve as a focus for initiating convection as
a series of shortwaves enhance convective development through this
period. However, can not rule out nocturnal shower activity.

Temperatures will remains slightly above normal through the
period.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 115 PM Saturday...

Widespread VFR conditions prevailing at least through midnight
as the area continues under the influence of a high pressure at
the surface and aloft. Clear skies and near calm flow will allow
for dense fog development once again, along the river valleys.
Sites most likely to be affected by IFR/LIFR conditions under
dense fog will be EKN, HTS, and CKB. Expect shallower fog or in
the vicinity of CRW overnight tonight. This fog will roughly
last from 08Z through 12Z.

Otherwise, VFR conditions area anticipated through Sunday. The area
should remain dry under weak surface flow out of the east
southeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing, location, and intensity of fog
formation may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible in river valley fog Sunday/Monday
mornings, primarily at EKN.

&&

.CLIMATE...
As of 140 AM Saturday...

It was a very warm June across the NWS Charleston forecast
area. Mean temperatures for the month of June 2025 were
generally 2 to 4 degrees above normal. This translated into
four official NWS Charleston climate locations making the top
10 in terms of their warmest mean June temperatures on record.
Precipitation totals varied significantly across the forecast
area, with some locations below normal, while others were above
normal.

Listed below are the locations, ranks, and observed values of
the top tens that were set.

          June 2025 Top Tens Set (Mean Temperature)
-------------------------------------------------------------
  Location           Top 10 Rank           Observed Value
-------------------------------------------------------------
- Elkins, WV       : 2nd Warmest        -> 71.6 F
- Beckley, WV      : 3rd Warmest        -> 71.4 F
- Clarksburg, WV   : 3rd Warmest        -> 74.0 F
- Huntington, WV   : 7th Warmest        -> 76.9 F
-------------------------------------------------------------

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...ARJ

CLIMATE...GW