460
FXUS61 KRLX 010741
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
241 AM EST Mon Dec 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure persists today, then a system brings wintry
weather tonight into Tuesday. High pressure again mid week. More
active pattern resumes late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Chilly and dry today.
* Wintry mix spreads across the area tonight.
* A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued for portions of the
  area where impacts from snow and ice are most likely.

High pressure skating overhead will support dry weather through
the day amid slowly eroding cloud cover. This brief reign of
dry weather will come to an end as an approaching upper level
trough and surface low spread precipitation across the area
roughly from southwest to northeast tonight.

Daytime temperatures will be chilly, with highs hovering in the
30 to 40 degree range in the mountains and mid 30s to 40s in
the lowlands. Temperatures then lower into the 20s to 30s
overnight.

For most of the area, precipitation is anticipated to take the
form of snow or freezing rain; however, slightly warmer
temperatures should mainly result in rain across portions of
the southern coalfields, southwest VA, and even part of the I-79
corridor.

Best potential for a few inches of snow will be in southeast
Ohio and the higher elevations of the northeast mountains,
though lesser amounts could be more widespread. Meanwhile,
highest confidence in ice accumulations exists along the eastern
slopes of the WV mountains, with slightly less confidence in
amounts across northeast KY, southeast OH, and western and
northern WV.

A Winter Weather Advisory has been issued from late tonight
through early Tuesday afternoon for locations where impactful snow
or ice accumulations are most likely to occur.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Key Points:
* Winter weather continues into Tuesday.
* High pressure builds in for Wednesday.

A wintry mix of rain, snow, and freezing rain continues into
Tuesday as a low passes to the southeast Tuesday morning.
Although precipitation coverage should diminish behind the low
Tuesday afternoon, some upslope precipitation could persist
until an upper trough completes its passage over the area that
evening. High pressure then builds in from the southwest,
prompting drier conditions through mid week.

High temperatures should range from low 30s to low 40s on
Tuesday, then 30s in the mountains and mid 30s to 40s in the
lowlands on Wednesday. Both Tuesday night and Wednesday night
will be cold with low temperatures diving into the teens to low
20s in the mountains and 20s in the lowlands.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 240 AM Monday...

Key Point:
* Mostly dry Thursday, more active to end the week.

Much of the area remains dry through Thursday, though there is a
small chance that a passing cold front could spawn a snow shower
or two in the northeastern part of the CWA that morning.
Better precipitation chances arrive with a low passing to the
southeast and a shortwave moving overhead late this week. The
more active pattern then continues as another system approaches
from the west for Sunday.

Temperatures are expected to remain cooler than normal through
the weekend despite a subtle late week warming trend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 1220 AM Monday...

MVFR ceilings will linger through most of the morning, then
gradually improve to VFR as clouds erode for the afternoon and
evening. Ceilings start to lower again as a system begins to
spread a wintry mix across the area late Monday night; however,
additional CIG and VIS restrictions should hold off until after
the end of the TAF period.

Winds will continue to weaken early this morning, then light
northeast flow is expected through the day. Winds should then
strengthen and become breezy along the mountains after 00Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of ceiling category changes could
vary. IFR ceilings cannot be ruled out in the mountains early
this morning.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 12/01/25
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in rain and/or snow Monday night into
Tuesday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for WVZ005>011-013-014-016>020-029>032-039-040-
     516-518>526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory from 11 PM this evening to 1 PM EST
     Tuesday for KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20