424
FXUS61 KRLX 281746
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1246 PM EST Fri Feb 28 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Brief high pressure brings dry but gusty conditions today.
Another cold front with limited moisture arrives tonight.
Oscillating temperatures in the midst of these passing waves.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 850 AM Friday...
No updates necessary.

As of 635 AM Friday...

Skies have cleared across most part of the area this morning.
Winds will gradually increase toward this afternoon and evening.
Previous forecast remains on track.

As of 221 AM Friday...

Light upslope precipitation will taper off early this morning, as
northwest flow aloft backs from the southwest, pushing the thermal
trough out of the area by mid morning. H850 flow becomes strong (40-
50 knots) from the southwest by this afternoon and evening, bringing
descent WAA and surface gusty winds.

A brief surface high pressure builds from the south today. At the
upper levels, zonal flow aloft, without any passing by
disturbance, will allow for dry conditions and even plenty of
sunshine today. The WAA and plenty of sunshine expected should
bring afternoon temperatures above general guidance. Therefore,
went with the 70 percentile of the NBM, closer to the GLAMP for
highs this afternoon.

Meanwhile, a low pressure system moves east across the Great Lakes
on Friday. This low will push a cold front to arrive to SE OH by
late tonight into Saturday morning. Much colder air will filter in
behind the cold front to bring back subfreezing temperatures to the
northern portions of SE OH and northern WV by dawn Saturday morning.
Limited moisture will allow for light isolated rain showers across
the northern sections, transitioning into upslope snow showers across
the northeast mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

A cold front will be moving through the region at the beginning of
the short term bringing a continued chance for some scattered
showers, initially rain, but should transition to snow as cold air
advection pulls in colder air, allowing for any remaining
precipitation to turn to snow. These snow showers could persist for
a lot of the day and be widely scattered through Saturday evening
with upstream lake moisture before being shunted by late Saturday
night as drier air arrives under westerly low level flow. Before
this happens, some light snow accumulations are possible, with
mainly a dusting at best across the lowlands and up to an inch or so
across the northeast WV mountains. Winds will also be gusty area-
wide for most of Saturday with gusts of 20-25 mph likely across the
lowlands and higher gusts into the 30-40 mph range likely across the
northeast WV mountains and higher ridges. Winds should subside by
late Saturday for much of the area but will likely persist into late
Saturday night across the higher terrain.

With the frontal passage, cold air will be in place for Saturday
night, combined with gusty winds, leading to wind chills near 10
below across the northeast WV mountains, which could warrant the
need for a cold weather advisory across this area. Elsewhere, expect
low temperatures to be in mid teens to low twenties for Saturday
night.

The remainder of the short term should be mainly dry, with much more
seasonable temperatures in store for Sunday in the low to mid 30`s
across the lowlands and low to mid 20`s across the northeast WV
mountains and low temperatures Sunday night once again bottoming out
in the teens to low 20`s area-wide. Temperatures should then warm
some into the low to mid 40`s on Monday ahead of the next
approaching system.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 AM Friday...

A strengthening surface low in the central Plains will lift
northeast into the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region Tuesday into
Wednesday. This will provide our next chance at widespread
accumulating precipitation with most of the area potentially seeing
a half to an inch of rain. There is still some uncertainty as to how
much moisture return we get in our area compared to our west, but it
will be something to keep an eye on with ongoing recovery efforts
across southern portions of our area.

In addition to precipitation, this system will generate strong wind
gusts in the 30-40 mph range area-wide for Wednesday thanks to
strong warm air advection. There are some solutions hinting at
the potential for thunderstorms to develop in our area sometime
Wednesday, some of which, given favorable wind dynamics and some
weak instability, could potentially bring with them some
strong/severe winds, dependent on how much instability we are
able to materialize early Wednesday as well as the attendant
strength/track of said low. Even still, it would not be out of
the question to see some momentum driven severe wind gusts occur
along the front.

After the frontal passage, expect drier weather to prevail outside
of a few stray showers across the northeast WV mountains for the
rest of the extended period. For Thursday, temperatures will once
again drop to near normal, with high temperatures in the low to mid
40`s across the lowlands and low to mid 30`s across the northeast WV
mountains.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 1240 PM Friday...

VFR conditions to start the period. Gusty southwesterly winds
through 06-09Z when winds will gradually veer to a northwesterly
direction with passage of a cold front. Occasional gusts in the
teens to 20s area wide, with occasional gusts upper 20 to
lower/mid 30 kts across the mountains.

Otherwise, LLWS is expected to develop area wide overnight as
low level winds strengthen to around 50kts, generally in the
23Z through 10Z time frame, and have coded this in the TAFs.

In addition, a brief period/areas of MVFR cigs is expected,
along with the potential for -shra and -shsn generally after
09Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread/longer period of MVFR
ceilings Saturday may develop than currently anticipated.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
Brief IFR possible in snow showers Saturday into Saturday
night, mainly in and near the mountains.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...28/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...28
LONG TERM...28
AVIATION...SL