166
FXUS61 KRLX 020040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
840 PM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers diminish tonight as a cold front exits east. Mainly dry
Wednesday onward as high pressure slowly traverses the region. Hot
weather returns for the Fourth of July and into the holiday weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 830 PM Tuesday...

Have removed the mention of thunder from the forecast for much
of the area for the evening onward, with just scattered showers
at this point across our VA/WV zones. The rest of the forecast
remains on track.

As of 545 PM Tuesday...

Showers and thunderstorms continue across the region in advance
of/along a surface cold front that is beginning to slowly
progress through the northwest portion of the forecast area
INVOF the Ohio River. Extensive cloud cover across the area has
largely muted the severe threat, with any convective activity at
this point primarily limited to Charleston south/east. Gusty
winds are possible with thunderstorms across the south over the
next hour or two, but not anticipating anything of the severe variety.

The bigger story has been the heavy rain across portions of the
area, with 1-3"+ from the Charleston metro west into portions
of northeast Kentucky and far southern Ohio. This has resulted
in flash flooding across the aforementioned area. The chance for
high water issues further south/east remains, but should be
more isolated given a slightly faster progression of activity
now. Showers/storms will gradually become more confined to the
higher terrain throughout the evening, with the chance for
showers lingering there through much of the night. Minor tweaks
to the forecast were made in terms of updated PoPs, decreased
chances for thunder across northern portions of the CWA, along
with the mention of heavy rain into the forecast throughout the
evening. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Cold front crosses later today into tonight.
* Heavy rain could lead to localized flooding.

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue to sprout up
across the area as a cold front slowly approaches from the west this
morning. Activity then continues as the front slides towards the
Ohio River later today and then continues east across the area
tonight.

Around 1.75 to 2 inches of precipitable water should continue to
support moderate to heavy rain showers ahead of and along the front.
Excessive rainfall could prompt some localized flooding,
particularly in areas that were impacted by heavy rain earlier
today. Some strong storms could also develop in the warm, moist, and
unstable environment present this afternoon and evening, with
potential for isolated severe storms to produce locally damaging
winds.

Showers and storms taper off behind the front tonight, then high
pressure begins to creep in from the southwest and allows drier
conditions to return to the majority of the area on Wednesday. That
being said, residual moisture could sustain a few showers along the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Key Point:
* High pressure brings drier conditions for the second half of the
  work week.

While a weak shortwave may pass overhead, surface high pressure is
expected to support drier conditions Wednesday night into Thursday
morning. An upper ridge then starts to expand east across the area
while high pressure remains present at the surface and allows
relatively benign weather to persist through the end of the work
week. Temperatures will steadily increase beneath the building
ridge, with hot conditions taking hold just in time for the
Independence Day holiday.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Hot and humid over the weekend.
* Becoming more active again next week.

Expect hot and increasingly humid conditions this weekend, with
chances of precipitation returning as the upper ridge begins to
relinquish control next week. Thereafter, the weather pattern
remains more active as a front slowly approaches from the
northwest while another system travels up the Atlantic Coast
during the new work week.

While precipitation chances have been introduced as early as
Sunday afternoon, model solutions differ with respect to the
timing of the front and breakdown of the ridge. More robust
ridging could sustain drier conditions through the end of the
long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 840 PM Tuesday...

Scattered showers across VA/WV will continue to gradually
diminish and become confined to the higher terrain throughout
tonight. While brief MVFR is possible within any heavier
showers, the main concern for the overnight will be CIG/VSBY
restrictions with developing fog / low stratus, with MVFR/IFR
(or worse) expected across much of the area. Area-wide VFR
returns once fog/stratus dissipates Wednesday morning, with a
FEW/SCT Cu field developing during the day. An ISO shower/storm
cannot be ruled out in the mountains.

Near calm surface flow overnight, with light northwest flow
developing on Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium tonight, high Wednesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of fog overnight may
vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR conditions possible in valley fog each morning through Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20/GW
NEAR TERM...20/GW
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...GW