074
FXUS61 KRLX 061526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1126 AM EDT Sun Oct 6 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure maintains dry weather through most of the
afternoon. A cold front brings showers and storms this evening.
Some storms could be strong to severe. Dry for the work week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 1125 AM Sunday...

Forecast on track, including severe potential assessment. Cold
front was about to enter northwest Ohio.

As of 630 AM Sunday...

Populated latest short-range convective models into the PoPs to
maintain accurate timing for arrival of showers/storms later
today. Current guidance has the system arriving at our western
flank around 6 PM and 7 PM this evening.

As of 255 AM Sunday...

Key Points:

  * Clear skies and calm winds will allow for dense river valley fog
    to form this morning.

  * Cold front crosses west to east this evening.

  * Strong to severe thunderstorms possible later this afternoon
    into the overnight hours ahead of the front.

  * Main threats will be damaging winds, hail and heavy downpours.

  * There is the low chance for an isolated tornado across
    portions of southeastern OH and northern WV.

Another cool, clear and calm night will allow for radiational
cooling to take hold with high pressure nearby. Lowered min
temperatures this morning between the 10th and 25th percentile of
guidance due to this factor. Most locations will see morning lows
in the 40s and lower 50s as a result.

Dense river valley fog is likely to form again this morning. GOES-16
Night Fog channel does show some signatures across the northern
lowlands and mountains already. Expecting a similar outcome as
yesterday with fog lifting and scattering by mid-morning giving way
to mostly clear skies and dry weather for first half of today. Winds
will pick up out of the SSW and could be breezy at times.
Temperatures look to be unseasonably warm with afternoon highs in
the low to mid 80s across the lowlands. The mountains will remain in
the upper 60s and 70s.

A cold front will approach from the west this evening with a line of
showers and thunderstorms moving through ahead of the front starting
later this afternoon into the overnight hours. A few thunderstorms
could be strong to severe. Convective models show the line
arriving at our western flank between 6 PM and 8 PM.

SB and MU CAPE look to be between 1,000 and 1,500 J/kg across
our southeastern OH, KY and western WV counties which would
allow for damaging winds with any storms. NAM12 soundings show
freezing levels between 10k and 12k feet for most locations so
hail is also possible.

Bulk shear is decent between 30 kts and 50 kts with the arrival of a
low-level jet in the evening. That said, there is a low chance
for an isolated tornado for portions of the southeast OH and
northern WV lowlands, but the greater threat for tornadoes will
remain to our north.

Heavy downpours could accompany any storms, but overall the flash
flooding threat remains low, due to lower precipitable water values
(around an inch) and moderately fast storm motion. There are not
excessive rainfall risks for our area today as a result. The
activity looks to start waning overnight/early Monday with high
pressure swiftly filling behind the front.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather for Monday
through Wednesday. Temperatures will be below normal for this
time of year. Some patchy frost is possible in northeastern
West Virginia each night.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 210 AM Sunday...

A high pressure system will continue to provide dry weather for
Thursday into the weekend. Below normal temperatures can be
expected for Thursday and Thursday night, with frost possible
in the central and northern West Virginia mountains.
Temperatures will then warm slightly going into the weekend,
with readings slightly above normal by Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 635 AM Sunday...

Patchy river valley fog is scattered around the forecast area
this morning, but not as robust as yesterday. EKN is reporting
a quarter mile VIS with indefinite ceiling due to dense fog.
Other sites, such as CRW, CKB and PKB are only seeing minor
restrictions, but will likely see IFR/LIFR restrictions with
fog close to sunrise. Fog will lift and dissipate by ~13-14z
this morning.

VFR takes back over with mostly clear skies and SSW winds
increasing throughout the day ahead of a cold front. Winds may
be breezy at times, especially this afternoon, gusting between
15-25kts at times. Cold front then approaches from the west
this evening between ~22z and ~00z. A line of showers and
thunderstorms will accompany the front and a few storms could be
strong or severe with damaging winds, hail and heavy rainfall.
There is a low chance for an isolated tornado as well. MVFR/IFR
restrictions are possible in and around any showers or storms.

Activity looks to taper off just after ~06z tonight with stark
clearing taking place from west to east and winds shifting out
of the NNW, remaining breezy across the higher elevations.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of return to VFR this morning may
vary from forecast. Timing and intensity of showers and storms
later this afternoon and evening could also vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR in river valley fog possible Tuesday, Wednesday, and
Thursday mornings.

&&

.CLIMATE...

September 2024 - Warm Amid a Wide Range in Precipitation Totals

Compared to the 1991-2020 U.S. Climate Normals, it was a warm
September across the vast majority of the forecast area, with
mean temperatures for much of the area ending up 1 to 4 degrees
(Fahrenheit) above normal, with a few locations trending closer
to normal. In terms of precipitation, the first two-thirds of
the month was extremely dry across much of the forecast area, so
much so that some locations were on pace to potentially near
the mark for their driest September on record. For instance,
Charleston, WV had only received 0.09 inches of precipitation
through the 22nd of September! This quickly changed, however, in
the last third of the month given that it was quite wet,
particularly across southwest VA, southern WV and extending
northeast along the mountains, as well as in northeast KY and
far southern OH. Multiple rounds of rain would affect the forecast
area during this timeframe, with the most significant event
being associated with the remnants of Hurricane Helene and a
corresponding Predecessor Rain Event (PRE) in advance of the
main circulation, with the greatest impacts occurring across the
aforementioned areas. Given such, total precipitation for the
month of September varied significantly across the forecast
area, ranging from less than 2 inches across some locations in
the central/northern portion of the CWA (equating to departures
of 1 to 2 inches), while totals of 4 to 8 inches were observed
along the periphery of this region and also across all of the
southern portion of the CWA, with greater than 10 inches observed
at some locations in southwest VA. This equated to surpluses of
2 to 7 inches for the month in portions of the aforementioned
areas. For the sake of comparison, Charleston, WV only received
1.84 inches of precipitation throughout September, while one of
our Cooperative Observer Program (COOP) locations in southwest
VA (located just southeast of Nora in Dickenson County) only
about 100 miles to the southwest received 10.29 inches, which is
nearly 7 inches above what is normal there for September!

No top 10s were set at any of the official NWS RLX climate locations
this September in terms of mean temperature or total precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/LTC
NEAR TERM...TRM/LTC
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM/LTC

CLIMATE...GW