264
FXUS61 KRLX 041343
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
943 AM EDT Mon Aug 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Dry today as high pressure shifts northeast. Humidity builds
through the week with the chance for daily showers/storms
returning Tuesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 940 AM Monday...

Forecast remains on track, with filtered sunshine at present
across much of the CWA as SCT-BKN cirrus traverses overhead.
In general, mostly sunny skies are expected throughout the day
amid cirrus from time to time, with a bit of fair weather Cu
developing late this morning into the afternoon. Highs will be
in the low/mid 80s across the lowlands, with upper 60s and 70s
in the mountains.

As of 130 AM Monday...

Today is influenced by high pressure, dry air in the column and
just partly cloudy skies which will all promote just about
seasonable temperatures, maybe a degree or two lower. The area
is forecast to remain dry until chances come to fruition this
evening across northeast KY and Southern WV as well as Southwest
VA.

This is where an inverted trough will set up to promote some
shower activity although thunderstorm probability is very low
at this time. With a moisture flux advecting into the area from
the south, chances for rain will increase through the morning,
spreading from south to north by Tuesday afternoon.

Strong flow right off the surface and increasing cloud coverage
may deter most valley fog formation tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Moisture increases as an elongated upper level trough pushes in
from the west into Tuesday promoting more shower and possible
thunderstorm activity although instability is almost non
existent according to forecast soundings as well as lapse rates
only around 3.5C/km.

Moisture advection really pumps up on Wednesday as high
pressure to our north moves further north and southeasterly flow
helps move the moisture courtesy of the aforementioned trough.
This will result in increased chances for shower and storm
activity across the entire area, more so toward the south,
however storms will have a rough time initiating with weak
instability once again.

Temperatures will remain below seasonable due to cloud coverage
and possible shower activity. Central blended guidance added
slight to chance probability of thunderstorms to the mix, but
the probabilities are very low (only up to 29%) for Wednesday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 130 AM Monday...

Shifting over to Thursday, models have a system off the coast
riding up the Eastern Seaboard which will advect in some
moisture allowing for possible shower or storm activity across
mainly the mountains on Thursday and Friday.

The rest of the weekend is rather dry but cannot rule out
diurnal activity as moisture from the south lingers around the
region. Long range models have a cold front sweeping through
starting Monday which will scour out that southern moisture and
allow for temperatures to go from above seasonable starting
Saturday to below seasonable by Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 620 AM Monday...

Any fog lifts by 13Z, maybe slightly longer at EKN, but
yesterday they did break out by 13Z. Thereafter one can expect
partly cloudy skies filling in by the evening with a slight Cu
field developing by the afternoon.

VFR rules the period. By this evening some shower activity is
possible, but would be confined to the southern most part of the
CWA therefore not affecting any sites. Tonight expect even less
fog and only confined to the mountains in the valleys.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: None.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...

No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JZ/GW
NEAR TERM...JZ/GW
SHORT TERM...JZ
LONG TERM...JZ
AVIATION...JZ