694
FXUS61 KRLX 201012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
612 AM EDT Wed Aug 20 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will bring showers and storms to the area today.
Mainly dry Thursday and Friday. A cold front brings another
chance for storm this weekend, turning much cooler next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 600 AM Wednesday...

Convective activity along a pre-frontal trough has all but
dissipated this morning, but modest elevated instability remains
pooled ahead of a slowly approaching surface cold front. Expect
renewed showers and storms in convergence near the cold and
associated pre-frontal trough by late morning/early afternoon
with surface heating.

As of 120 AM Wednesday...

Key Messages:

* Some storms could produce locally heavy rainfall leading to
  localized high water in areas of poor drainage today.

* Drier and cooler air will move in for Thursday and Friday.

* A strong cold front will pass through the region this weekend,
  bringing a dramatic drop in temperatures for early next week, with
  conditions feeling more like early fall.

Early this morning, a weakening line of convection current
stationed near the Ohio River continues to slowly move east of
ahead of a pre-frontal trough. Expect this activity to continue
to wane through the morning hours.

During the day today, the primary cold front will advance into the
region. Daytime heating will combine with increasing low-level
convergence and ample moisture (PWAT values in the 1.5 to 2.0 inch
range) to generate scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms,
beginning late in the morning and continuing through the afternoon.
The primary threat with this activity will be locally heavy
rainfall, with HREF guidance suggesting some localized totals of
2 inches are possible across the higher terrain. Due to dry
antecedent conditions, the overall flash flood threat remains
relatively low. A heavier downpour over any areas of especially
poor drainage or in areas where activity along the pre-frontal
trough could overlap with activity along the cold front
(primarily in the vicinity of the higher terrain) would be the
best candidates for any localized high water issues.
Instability will be modest, with MLCAPE values progged to reach
500-1000 J/kg and deep layer shear will be weak, 10-20 kts with
a low threat for severe weather outside of any flooding risk.

Showers and storms will diminish in coverage and intensity this
evening after sunset with the loss of diurnal heating and the
passage of the front. Skies will gradually clear overnight, with
lows dropping into the mid 60s. Some patchy fog will be possible in
the valleys Thursday morning, especially where any heavier rainfall
accumulations occur during the day today.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

On Thursday, a cooler and drier airmass will filter into the
forecast area. The broad circulation around Hurricane Erin, located
well off the East Coast, will promote a northerly flow across the
region. This will result in high temperatures near seasonal normals,
mainly in the low to mid 80s for the lowlands and 70s in the
mountains. A pocket of lingering low-level moisture and weak upslope
flow may trigger a few isolated showers over the highest elevations
of the mountains during the afternoon, but most areas will remain
dry.

With clear skies and light winds expected Thursday night, conditions
will be favorable for the development of valley fog, which could be
locally dense in river valleys and areas subject to cold air
drainage. Lows will be in the low to mid 60s. Friday will be largely
sunny and pleasant with temperatures warming a few degrees into the
mid and upper 80s under continued dry conditions.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 120 AM Wednesday...

A significant pattern change is forecast for the long term period. A
strong upper-level trough is forecast to dig into the eastern
half of the country, driving a strong cold front through the
area Saturday night into Sunday. This front will be accompanied
by an increasing chance of showers and thunderstorms. While
there is still some model disagreement on the exact timing of
the frontal passage, confidence is high in the subsequent
airmass change.

Behind the front, a much cooler and drier continental airmass will
settle over the region for early next week. NBM guidance indicates a
high probability of temperatures falling well below normal. High
temperatures on Monday and Tuesday are only expected to reach the
70s in the lowlands, with some higher elevations struggling to get
out of the 60s. Overnight lows will be refreshingly cool, dropping
into the 50s for most, with some of the colder spots in the
mountains potentially dipping into the upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 610 AM Wednesday...

A cold front slowly swings through the region from the northeast
today. This will increase chances for showers and thunderstorms
from late morning through the afternoon. This will lead to
periods of MVFR, and possibly briefly IFR, conditions at the
terminals with stratocumulus behind the front as well as
associated precipitation.

Winds will remain relatively light, shifting from southwesterly
ahead of the the front to northwesterly behind it through the
day.

Light winds and residual low-level moisture after frontal
passage will create conditions favorable for MVFR to IFR
ceilings and visibilities in valley fog and low stratus late
late tonight into Thursday morning.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: The exact timing and coverage of
thunderstorms today may vary. High confidence in IFR conditions
tonight, but may be a mix of fog and very low stratus.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR possible in river valley fog most mornings the rest of the
work week.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...JP
NEAR TERM...JP
SHORT TERM...JP
LONG TERM...JP
AVIATION...JP