116
FXUS61 KRLX 302202
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
602 PM EDT Mon Jun 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Showers/storms through Tuesday in advance of a cold front that
crosses Tuesday night. Some storms could be strong to severe, along
with the potential for localized flooding. Dry Wednesday onward.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 600 PM Monday...

Showers/storms have developed throughout the afternoon amid a
moderately buoyant, but relatively low shear environment, with a
subtle mid-level cap in place. Activity has been primarily
confined across the higher terrain courtesy of anabatic
convergence, then further north across the Mid-Ohio Valley and
northern WV lowlands where slightly great synoptic forcing
exists with a weak shortwave crossing to the north. In between,
activity has been quite muted, although meandering outflow
boundaries from prior convection is now allowing for some ISO
showers/storms to initiate through the aforementioned cap.

Going forward, expect an uptick in showers/storms through the
evening given the activity further west and some outflow
boundary interactions resulting in additional thunderstorm
development. The main threats with activity this evening into
early tonight continues to be strong to isolated severe wind
gusts, along with the potential for flash flooding. Given mean
steering flow moving closer to 15-20 kts at this point, hydro
concerns would primarily result in areas that receive training
of showers/storms or multiple waves, or have had heavy rain in
the last few days.

A steady decrease in activity is expected overnight following
the passage of the shortwave and loss of daytime heating,
although ISO showers/storms remain possible, along with some
patchy fog. The rest of the forecast remains on track.

As of 1228 PM Monday...

Showers and storms will ramp up again this afternoon, in the
humid/unstable environment, and as a shortwave crosses the Ohio
Valley region. Widespread severe is not anticipated, but there is a
continued downburst/damaging wind threat, along with a continued
threat for localized flash flooding, as overall steering flow
remains around 15kts or less and PWATs remain anomalously high. SPC
has much of the area highlighted in a marginal risk today for the
downburst potential. The bulk of the convection should wane somewhat
overnight, however, another shortwave, and surface cold front will
be approaching from the west by early Tuesday, with an increase in
shower and storm coverage. An isolated strong to severe storm is
possible owing to a slight uptick in shear, with damaging winds the
primary threat. The cold front will arrive Tuesday afternoon/evening
and should be east of the area by Wednesday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 1228 PM Monday...

Cold front should generally be to the east of the area by Wednesday
morning or early afternoon. A few showers or storms are still
possible Wednesday from passing weak disturbances, but most areas
should be dry. A secondary front crosses the area Thursday. Once
again, an isolated shower or storm is possible, but for the most
part, the area should be dry, and overall less humid than as of
late.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 1228 PM Monday...

Increasing temperatures and humidity look to round out the extended
as upper heights build across the area. Showers and thunderstorms
will also be on the increase over the weekend, mainly diurnal in
nature. Ridge looks to break down somewhat towards the end of the
extended period, as a disturbance moves across the north.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 110 PM Monday...

Scattered convection is developing across the area, with brief
IFR conditions, and a potential for strong/erratic gusty winds.
Most of the convection will dissipate after 02Z, however,
isolated showers/storms will continue to be possible overnight.
Patchy MVFR or worse fog will be possible overnight in areas
that receive rain this afternoon.

As we move into Tuesday, a cold front will move towards the
area. This will bring a renewed threat of showers and storms to
the area, with IFR or worse restrictions in vicinity of storms,
and the potential for strong/gusty winds. In addition,
widespread MVFR ceilings are expected to take hold across the
area, particularly after 09Z and linger for much of the
remainder of the TAF period. Bulk of convective activity on
Tuesday can be expected to develop after 15-18Z and beyond.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of thunderstorm activity may vary
from forecast. Areas of fog may be worse tonight than currently
forecast in spots that receive rain.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR conditions possible in thunderstorms through Tuesday and
in morning fog Wednesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...SL/GW
NEAR TERM...SL/GW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...SL