490
FXUS61 KRLX 080231
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
931 PM EST Fri Feb 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Potent, moisture-laden systems will impact the area Saturday,
and early to mid next week, each with heavy rain, and mixed
wintry precipitation.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 930 PM Friday...

Have updated the forecast by inserting some chances for
precipitation along the southern coal fields and southeastern
WV to account for incoming light showers from the west. The
rest of the forecast is on track.

As of 545 PM Friday...

Quiet weather persists until the overnight. The forecast is on
track with only minor changes to certain parameters such as
winds. Will re-evaluate later to see if anything has to be
updated or not.

As of 200 PM Friday...

A high pressure system will provide dry weather this evening before
sliding off to the northeast.

A system will then push precipitation into the area late tonight
into Saturday. With the high providing a light northeast flow
over the lowlands and a southeast flow over the mountains, there
is some concern that precipitation could start as freezing rain
or snow, before turning over to rain. In the lowlands this
transition will be quick with a couple hours difference in the
precipitation or rising temperatures making a difference.
Confidence is not high enough at the moment to issue an advisory
for the lowlands, but if any problems should occur, it would be
generally be north of the I-64 corridor. For the southeast
upslope counties where the colder air normally gets trapped,
confidence is high enough in freezing rain for Pocahontas and
eastern Randolph counties, so have issued a Winter Weather
Advisory there. This situation will need to be monitored closely
as additional counties could be added tonight.

Another concern is with flooding. While many models are not as
excited as the last event and convection should be more limited,
the 12Z HRRR, 12Z meso NAM, and the FV3 models are concerning.
The 12Z HRRR shows a 2 inch band over the southern West Virginia
coal fields into the southern and central mountains. The FV3
shows 1 to 1.5 inch amounts in the same area. The meso NAM is
similar to the FV3 in that area, with a 2.3 inch bullseye over
the northern West Virginia mountains. With only one day of
recovery and many streams still running about half bankfull,
decided to go with a Flood Watch for Saturday into Saturday
night.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 151 PM Friday...

A cold front will cross the region early Sunday morning, and
precipitation should end for most areas by daybreak with dry weather
returning for the rest of Sunday. The Flood Watch will expire at
09Z Sunday with any threat of heavy rain diminishing.
Temperatures should end up close to normal for early February
with highs in the upper 30s to lower 40s.

A weak mid-level disturbance may bring isolated rain/snow showers
late Sunday night into Monday morning across southwest Virginia and
far southern West Virginia. Slight chance PoPs have been added.

The rest of Monday should be largely dry with seasonable
temperatures. The next significant system will arrive late Monday
night.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 151 PM Friday...

The next significant system arrives Monday night, lasting through
Tuesday, with many questions still remaining. Precipitation type is
still highly uncertain, as there is still plenty of
disagreement between models. The GFS has been hinting at a
potential significant accumulating snow event for much of the
region, even across the lowlands. However, several other models,
including the ECMWF, keep this event as mostly rain across the
lowlands with some snow in the mountains. The key in determining
precipitation type will be the track of low pressure. A surge
of low-level warm air, like the ECMWF shows, would keep the
precipitation type as predominately rain across the lower
elevations. Even if precipitation does remain as mostly snow
across the lower elevations, surface temperatures only look
marginally cold at best. This would yield lower snow ratios and
some melting on contact with pavement. Again, many questions
remain, so stay tuned.

This system will exit the area late Tuesday night into Wednesday
morning. Models show another potent system approaching from the
southwest Thursday, which at this time, looks to be mainly in the
form of rain across the lower elevations and a rain/snow mix in the
higher elevations.

Given our saturated soils from yesterday`s rainfall and some rivers,
creeks and streams running higher than normal, we will be watching
next week closely to see if there could be additional flooding
problems.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 620 PM Friday...

VFR conditions expected until the overnight hours when mainly
rain enters the area from west to east affecting the western
sites first. There should be minor VIS restrictions down to
MVFR and CIGs will eventually go down to MVFR with some possible
IFR at PKB. For the eastern sites, restrictions to VIS will be
slightly lower due to heavier rain and especially at EKN with snow
to start off. The rain will persist into tomorrow with MVFR
CIGs dominating. Winds will rotate out of the northeast to the
southeast by tomorrow afternoon.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing and intensity of restrictions late
tonight and Saturday could vary. Freezing rain or snow is
possible at the onset of precipitation, mainly over southeast
Ohio and northern West Virginia.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR conditions possible Saturday evening into early next week
with intermittent precipitation.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night
     for WVZ005-006-013>016-018-024>030-033-034-039-040-
     515>526.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 3 AM to 4 PM EST Saturday for
     WVZ523-524-526.
OH...None.
KY...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night
     for KYZ105.
VA...Flood Watch from 3 AM EST Saturday through late Saturday night
     for VAZ003-004.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMC
NEAR TERM...RPY/JZ
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...JZ