543
FXUS61 KRLX 050207
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
907 PM EST Wed Dec 4 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Rain and mountain snow returns with a cold front tonight,
followed by area-wide snow chances Thursday. Warming trend
starts Saturday. High pressure Friday/Saturday. System Monday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 906 PM Wednesday...

Seeing some bands of showers traversing the area with a surface
trough. Gusty winds are accompanying some of these as a few
ASOS/AWOS sites across the northern lowlands and mountains have
reported gusts over 35 mph. Temperatures have been slow to drop
this evening due to these continued gusty southwesterly winds.

Everything else with the winter weather headlines and forecast
remains unchanged other than some sleet and freezing rain mixing
in at times across the higher elevations of Pocahontas County.
Not expecting much more than a glaze of ice accumulation on a
few elevated surfaces.

As of 235 PM Wednesday...

Blizzard Warnings are in effect for northwestern Pocahontas and
Southeastern Randolph counties, which begin 0Z Thurs and persist
until 21Z Thursday. Strong wind gusts associated with a
strengthening low pressure system will combine with blowing snow
to create whiteout conditions at times, namely in the highest
elevations, where visibility will drop below a quarter of a
mile. There are Winter Weather Advisories in effect for the
surrounding mountain counties and higher elevations, where less
snow will be seen but blowing snow is still possible given
strong surface winds expected, which has also prompted a Wind
Advisory for some of our mountain counties as well. Opted not to
issue widespread Wind Advisory headlines for wind at this time
as gusts should remain below advisory criteria in most
locations.

Snowfall totals for this event will not be overly extreme by any
means, but it is important to note that the real hazard with
this storm is the significant blowing snow that is expected
across the high elevations of the northeast WV mountains as well
as some moderate snow accumulations of around 4-8" for areas in
the Blizzard Warning. In the advisory, generally 2-5" can be
expected.

Winds should quickly turn westerly late tonight as the frontal
boundary pushes east of our area but gusty winds from strong
LLJ and cold air advection as the low pushes eastward should
help gusty winds persist through at least early Thursday. There
is a Cold Weather Advisory in place for NW Pocahontas and SE
Randolph counties that begins Thursday morning and will remain
in effect until early Friday, as wind chills are expected to be
around -15 or so for a lot of that period.

On the subject of cold weather, low temperatures tonight should
very quickly plummet down into the low 20`s for the lowlands to
upper teens across the northern portions of WV and likely single
digits to low teens across the mountain counties, where the Cold
Weather Advisory is in effect. High temperatures Thursday will
struggle to recover as cold air continues to filter into the
region, expecting high temperatures Thursday across the
lowlands to be in the upper 20`s and high`s in the mountains to
be in the mid teens or so.

Given all of this, hazardous travel conditions are expected for
the area late tonight into early tomorrow, persisting longer in
the mountains where our headlines are in place, expecting slick
spots on untreated and elevated surfaces, such as bridges. The
combination of the timing of the event and potential hazards
given rapid decrease in temperature overnight and expected snow
the rest of our area will need to be monitored for any potential
headlines dependent on how the system evolves tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 122 PM Wednesday...

A weak, moisture-starved 500-mb shortwave will cross northern West
Virginia Friday morning, bringing some light snow showers to the
northern mountains with an inch or two of accumulation possible
by early Friday afternoon. Then, high pressure will slide into
the area, bringing dry weather with some sunshine by the
afternoon. Temperatures will still be quite cold for Friday with
highs only in the 20s to lower 30s.

Temperatures will still be quite cold for Saturday with a 500-mb
longwave trough lingering over the Eastern U.S. High pressure at the
surface should promote dry weather.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 122 PM Wednesday...

Upper-level heights finally begin to rise on Sunday as the trough
exits to the east and a ridge builds in. Temperatures will finally
moderate closer to normal for this time of year with highs anywhere
from the upper 40s to lower 50s for daytime highs Sunday afternoon.

A large area of low pressure will approach from the southwest
Monday, bringing the next chance of widespread precipitation, this
time mainly in the form of rain. This area of low pressure will race
off to the northeast Monday night, with another system quickly
following behind it on Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will
actually turn mild with a southerly flow bringing temperatures up
into the upper 50s and lower 60s. A strong cold front looks to
approach Tuesday night, sending us back to winterlike weather for
Wednesday.

This long-term pattern is complicated with many moving parts, so
confidence is low at this time. Models have plenty of room to change
over the coming days, and adjustments will be made when
necessary.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 705 PM Wednesday...

Currently all sites are reporting VFR conditions, but MVFR CIGs
will arrive overnight with a clipper system. Some IFR CIGs may
be possible across the mountains. Rain and snow showers will
accompany the arrival of this front. Sites such as BKW, CKB and
EKN will likely see some MVFR VIS restrictions at times due to
snow showers. Blowing snow may also be possible at sites that
will see strong winds gusts and snow showers.

Southwest to westerly winds will remain breezy and gusty tonight
especially across the higher elevations. Gusts between 20 knots
and 35 knots will be common at most sites with the higher end of
the range being observed at sites across the higher elevations.
As mentioned above strong gusty winds could create blowing snow
for locations that receive snow showers and/or have a snow pack.

Allowed LLWS at most sites for the first few hours as models
have a 45kt-55kt wind shear at most sites with gusts at the
surface remaining closer to 20kts or less.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of restrictions and rain/snow
showers may vary. LLWS onset and strength could vary from the
forecast.


EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR possible in snow showers and blowing snow across the
mountains Thursday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for WVZ039-040-
     520-522-525.
     Wind Advisory until 4 PM EST Thursday for WVZ516-518-520-524.
     Blizzard Warning until 4 PM EST Thursday for WVZ523-526.
     Cold Weather Advisory from 7 AM Thursday to 7 AM EST Friday
     for WVZ523-526.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JZ
NEAR TERM...28/LTC
SHORT TERM...JMC
LONG TERM...JMC
AVIATION...LTC