372
FXUS61 KRLX 010034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
834 PM EDT Sun Jun 30 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Cool and comfortable tonight in the wake of a cold front.
Cooler and dry to start the work week, then temperatures warm
for Tuesday. Next chance for rain arrives Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 834 PM Sunday...

The cold front is now crossing southeastern parts of the county
warning area, and dew points are falling into the upper 50s and
lower 60s. Temperatures will begin to tumble after sunset.
Minor adjustments were made to temperatures and dew points to
account for the latest progression of the front. Otherwise, the
forecast remains on track at this time. Should be a comfortable
night to step outside and get some fresh air.

As of 125 PM Sunday...

This afternoon, isolated to scattered showers and storms remain
possible ahead of and along a cold front that is currently
making its way across West Virginia. Meanwhile, to the west of
the Ohio River, post-frontal northwest flow is beginning to
transport drier air into the area.

The front will exit to the east this evening while high pressure
builds in from the north, resulting in tranquil weather and
clearing skies for tonight. Overnight temperatures will be much
cooler, with lows expected to range from low to mid 50s in the
lowlands and mid 40s to low 50s along the mountains.

High pressure remains in control at the surface on Monday, with dry
air and unseasonably mild temperatures making for a sunny and rather
pleasant day. High temperatures are expected to remain in the
mid to upper 70s in the lowlands and mid 60s to 70s for the
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Quiet weather continues through the first half of the work week
under a dominating southern stream ridge. After a pleasant day
of unseasonably cool temperatures on Monday, pressure height
rises will inflict a warming trend to ensue while the ridge
retains residency over the southeast and up into the Ohio
Valley.

The ridge begins to flatten and shift off the Carolina coast on
Wednesday, making room for a northern stream disturbance to
slide down from Canada and driving a surface cold front into the
region. The chance for showers and storms increases by the later
half of the day Wednesday and into the overnight hours ahead of
the 4th of July holiday. The front is progged to slow down upon
arrival and likely hovering overhead for the days to come.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 225 PM Sunday...

Unsettled weather looks to fester on the 4th of July and into
the holiday weekend as a cold front, first mentioned in the
short term period, stalls and wobbles over the area for an
extended amount of time. This will promote daily chances for
showers and possible convection through the entire forecast
period. Temperatures on our side of the Appalachians will remain
closer to seasonable for this time of year, while our neighbors
to the east will find themselves within the warm sector of the
front and its parent low, causing highs to soar well up into the
90s for the Mid-Atlantic region.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 740 PM Sunday...

As a cold front crosses the region this evening, winds out of
the north-northwest will remain breezy with occasional gusts
15-20 kts. Those gusts should diminish a bit after sunset. MVFR
ceilings will impact KBKW early this evening, but other
terminals should remain largely VFR for the first half of the
night. Some of the sheltered mountain river valleys may see IFR
fog overnight, and this was included in the KEKN TAF after 06Z
Monday through sunrise. Monday will bring continued northerly
winds and VFR conditions.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for fog.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR fog may not develop at KEKN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 07/01/24
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
Brief IFR possible in showers and thunderstorms Thursday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MEK/JLB/JMC
NEAR TERM...JLB/JMC
SHORT TERM...MEK
LONG TERM...MEK
AVIATION...JMC