033
FXUS61 KRLX 171304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
904 AM EDT Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure brings dry weather through Saturday, with a chilly
night tonight followed by a stout warmup. A strong cold crosses
Sunday, setting up a cool work week with another front crossing.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 903 AM Friday...

Let Freeze warnings and Frost advisories to expire at 9 AM as
temperatures continue to rise above freezing this morning. Rest
of forecast remains on track.

As of 145 AM Friday...

The areas of frost and freeze, and the valley fog we see
developing as of press time, which will both persist until a
bit after sunrise today, will be the main weather concern for
the near-term period. Once those hazards are gone, a calm and
clear day is expected with high pressure overhead, and high
temperatures around or maybe a touch above normal for mid-
October. Encroaching high clouds and possibly some light
synoptic S-SE`ly flow, should keep low temps milder tonight,
keeping frost and fog largely at bay.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 AM Friday...

This weekend begins with a robust warmup ahead of a cold front,
and ends with a noticeable cool down behind it. In between,
beneficial rain is on tap for Sunday as the cold front crosses
the area, along with the potential for some storms.

Southerly winds will start to pick up during the day on
Saturday, and the warm advection will combine with partly to
mostly sunny skies to boost temperatures at least 10 degrees
above normal for most of the area. Highs are forecast in the
upper 70s to mid-80s in lower elevations, and mid-60s to mid-70s
in the higher terrain. Sustained winds may get up around 10 mph,
with gusts up to 20 mph possible at times.

Clouds will quickly increase Saturday evening and night as the
upper trough and surface front both push towards the area from
the west. Winds will also increase ahead of the front due to the
pressure gradient tightening as the approaching front interacts
with the high sitting off the Carolinas. Sustained winds of 15
to 25 mph with gusts of 25 to 35 mph are currently forecast -
this does represent a boost over the deterministic NBM winds,
which was coordinated with neighbors.

Models show the front passing during the day on Sunday, but are
split over whether it will be more morning/early afternoon, or
afternoon/evening. Despite the strong S-SW`ly winds, clouds and
encroaching rain on Sunday will likely keep temperatures cooler
than Saturday`s highs, though the timing of the front will also
play a role in this. Should the current consensus on cooler
temperatures prevail, that would likely limit the instability
somewhat, and thus the severe storm potential. However, the
wave appears sharp and strong enough that the lift alone may
support at least some general thunderstorm activity.

We can expect some lingering gusty showers Sunday evening,
tapering off Sunday night, with the speed at which the upper
trough passes helping to determine just how quickly showers cut
off from west to east. Models also show upper-level and surface
ridging, and robust subsidence, quickly moving in by Monday
morning, adding confidence to the expectation that precip should
be over for all but a few mountain showers by sunrise on Monday.
Temperatures will drop quickly Sunday night with cold advection,
but winds should prevent any frost.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 230 AM Friday...

The next work week will start off on a blustery fall-like note,
with winds likely remaining a bit gusty out of the west and
highs ranging from the upper 40s on the highest peaks to the
mid-60s in the Huntington Tri-State area. Another quick-moving
cold front looks to cross late Monday night or Tuesday, bringing
more shower potential to the area. While the surface front looks
to push through fairly quickly, the upper-level trough will take
more time, and some shower activity may linger into at least
Tuesday night. That said, there is some disagreement on moisture
availability further south from the low pressure center, with
the ECMWF and Canadian families favoring a bit wetter solution
for our CWA, with the GFS group keeping it drier, so for now
POPs were kept under 40 percent.

After a potential brief and modest warm-up Tuesday ahead of the
front, temperatures drop back down on Wednesday behind it. After
a surface high and weak upper-level riding transit the area
around mid-week, another front looks to impact the region later
this week. However, this far out there is significant
disagreement on the details of timing, strength, and moisture
availability, so POPs are kept fairly low through sunset on
Thursday.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 700 AM Friday...

Valley fog has become fairly widespread overnight, especially
for southwestern WV and the Ohio Valley, while it has been more
tenuous up at EKN, in a reversal of the norm. Given the later
sunrises, the prevailing fog groups are set to go through 1330z,
with lower TEMPO groups through 13z. Once the fog burns off, we
can expect VFR conditions with light to calm winds through the
rest of the TAF period. Clouds and gentle SE-S`ly winds tonight
should prevent any fog formation.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High after fog burns off.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of improvement from fog this morning
may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions are possible in rain Sunday and Sunday night.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...FK
NEAR TERM...FK/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FK
LONG TERM...FK
AVIATION...FK