272
FXUS61 KRLX 021010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
510 AM EST Tue Dec 2 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A system brings wintry weather through the morning. High
pressure returns mid week. Additional systems possible to end
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

Key Points:
* Precipitation tapers off in the lowlands by afternoon.
* Upslope showers remain possible for the northeast mountains
  through evening.

Precipitation is spreading northeast across the area this morning,
with observations thus far registering a mix of rain, snow, and
freezing rain in the forecast area.

Widespread precipitation will persist through the morning as a low
slides by to the southeast and an upper trough edges in from the
west. Snow should be the dominant precipitation type for most of
southeast OH, while the WV mountains are likely to receive a mix of
freezing rain and snow. Portions of the southern coalfields and
southwest VA should mainly receive rain, though a rain/snow mix may
occur before precipitation ends later this morning. The area of
lowest confidence for precipitation type spans northeast KY, and
portions of west central and southwest WV. Here, a farrago of rain
and freezing rain, followed by snow, will be possible this morning.

A Winter Weather Advisory remains in effect for much of the area
until early afternoon. No changes to the advisory have been
made at this time.

Precipitation coverage is expected to diminish in the lowlands as
the low departs this afternoon; however, moisture associated with
the upper trough may allow upslope snow showers to linger over the
northeast mountains through evening.

High temperatures should range from 30s to low 40s today, then
overnight lows fall into the teens to low 20s in the mountains and
20s in the lowlands.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

High pressure then builds in from the southwest facilitating drier
conditions for the middle of the week. Although much of the area
should remain dry through Thursday, a cold front trekking across the
area could prompt a snow shower or two in and near the northeast
mountains Thursday morning.

Temperatures will remain chillier than normal, with highs in the 30s
to mid 40s on Wednesday and mid 20s to low 40s on Thursday. Lows are
generally expected to be in the 20s Wednesday night. Thursday night
is projected to be much colder with lows diving into the single
digits to teens in the northern half of the CWA, and teens to mid
20s in the southern half of the CWA.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 210 AM Tuesday...

Some precipitation could accompany a passing system late in the
week, though confidence is low as some forecast models have
begun to favor a track further to the south. Following that, a
better opportunity for precipitation arrives with yet another
system early next week.

Temperatures should remain cooler than normal through the end of the
long term forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 510 AM Tuesday...

A variety of flight conditions are currently present and most
terminals are expected to reach IFR or worse as precipitation
continues this morning. In the lowlands, precipitation tapers off by
afternoon allowing conditions to slowly improve from west to east by
the end of the day; however, MVFR ceilings are likely to persist for
most of the TAF period. In the mountains, IFR remains possible in
upslope showers and low ceilings through the end of the TAF period.

Northwest winds will be light to moderate today, with 15 to 30 kt
gusts possible along the mountains. Light winds are expected to
shift from westerly to southwesterly by early Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration of restrictions and end timing of
precipitation may vary from the forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 12/02/25
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    M    H    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
Widespread IFR is not expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-034-039-040-515>526.
OH...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...Winter Weather Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...20
NEAR TERM...20
SHORT TERM...20
LONG TERM...20
AVIATION...20