022
FXUS61 KRLX 102339
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Charleston WV
739 PM EDT Fri Oct 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry and cool conditions through Saturday.
The next (low) chance for precipitation arrives late in the weekend
as a coastal low interacts with a system over the Great Lakes.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Strong high pressure will keep dry and cool weather conditions
through tonight. Cool air aloft, mostly clear skies and near calm
flow will allow for strong radiational cooling and associated dense
fog development mainly along river valleys. Likewise, temperatures
may drop into the mid to lower 30s across the northeast mountains
where Frost Advisories and/or Freeze Warnings may be needed for
tonight. These conditions should be less widespread than last
night.

Expect near above normal temperatures with lows ranging from
the mid to upper 40s across the lowlands, to the mid 30s across
the northeast mountains. Highs on Saturday will be in the low to
mid 70s across the lowlands, ranging into the mid 50s northeast
mountains.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

High pressure system remains in control of the weather pattern
through Saturday night. Clouds will gradually increase as an upper-
level low pressure drops south from the Great Lakes, passing just
northeast of our CWA Saturday night into Sunday.

On other hand, a tropical system lifts north along the SE coast
during the weekend. It`s still uncertain about the interaction of
these two system over our local area. For now, accepted general
guidance suggesting tropical moisture advecting into the
Appalachians Sunday into Monday allowing for some showers there.
Rainfall amounts, if any, are expected to be light, with a 30-40
percent chance for even a tenth of an inch for these locations.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 200 PM Friday...

Latest models runs have the aforementioned upper level low deepening
over PA by Monday, resulting in increasing clouds and the
possibility of showers or storms. This low digs further south over
VA by Monday night, before exiting east into the Atlantic by
Tuesday, losing its influence over the local area. Therefore, expect
and increase in clouds and about 30-40 percent chance for showers
mainly across the northern and central Appalachians, moving east
away from the area by early Monday.

Then, an upper level ridge moves over the local region from the west
providing dry and stable weather conditions through the end of the
week.

Slightly above normal highs for Monday and Tuesday will turn to near
normal values Wednesday and Thursday. Highs in the mid to lower 70s
lowlands, ranging to the mid 50s northeast mountains Monday and
Tuesday. Overnight lows will also be mild, generally in the upper
40s to low 50s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 730 PM Friday...

VFR conditions will prevail through tonight across all
terminals. Clear skies, near calm flow and relatively warmer
river waters will promote dense fog once again along river
valleys forecast to affect PKB/CRW/HTS/EKN from early morning
until 13Z Saturday morning. Conditions return to widespread VFR
for the rest of Saturday.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Duration of dense fog in the morning
tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
At least patchy IFR valley fog is possible each morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JZ