118
FNUS75 KRIW 241550
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Willow Creek...USFS
National Weather Service Riverton WY
950 AM MDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0700 MDT on August 24.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Moisture will increase across the area today, although it will be
mainly at the mid and high levels. As a result, there is around a
2 out of 5 chance of a shower or thunderstorm in the afternoon
and evening, with the best chance between 1400 and 1900. However,
the chance of wetting rain remains rather low, only around 10
percent. Wind gusts to 15 mph are possible after 1400 today, with
gusts over 30 mph possible in and near any shower or thunderstorm.
Mixing and smoke dispersal will become very good after 1200 after
morning inversions break. The chance of a shower or thunderstorms
will decrease tonight. Chances of showers and thunderstorms then
increase this week, likely peaking on Wednesday. The showers and
thunderstorms have a better chance of a wetting rain, starting as
early as Monday.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...

.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (60-70 percent).
                    Scattered showers and thunderstorms in the
                    afternoon starting as early as 1300.
CWR.................0 percent increasing to 17 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......40 percent.
Chance of thunder...35 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until until 1700, then west around 10 mph with
                    gusts near 15 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Ridgetop wind.......South 10 to 15 mph until 1400, then west.
Mixing height.......Increasing throughout the morning eventually becoming
                    8000 ft AGL until 1700, then 5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 12 to 13 mph until 1200, then west 13 to
                    14 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000. Good after 1200.

TIME (MDT)      7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........50  45  45  45  50  50  55  65  70  75  80
Weather cov.....                    ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....                    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                    ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   10  10  10  20  30  30  40  40  30
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   10  10  10  20  30  30  40  40  30
Temp............56  58  62  65  68  71  72  71  70  70  69
RH..............51  53  45  39  38  35  35  35  38  39  38
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..6   6   6   6   6   6   6   6   7   6   7
20 FT wind gust.8   7   10  10  10  11  13  13  13  13  13
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   W
Ridge wind spd..10  10  15  15  15  15  10  15  15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 1.0 3.0 6.0 8.0 7.5 7.5 6.5 5.5
Transp wind dir.S   S   S   SW  SW  W   W   W   W   NW  W
Transp wind spd.12  12  13  13  13  13  13  13  14  14  14
SDspl kt-ft/10000   0   2   14  31  64  88  84  93  78  64

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms in the evening.
CWR.................2 percent.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...24 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 52.
Max humidity........69 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms in the evening.
Ridgetop wind.......West 10 to 15 mph until 2200, then light until
                    2400, then south around 10 mph.
Mixing height.......2000 ft AGL until 2000.
Transport winds.....Southwest 12 to 16 mph until 2000, then south 7
                    to 9 mph until 2300, then light until 2400,
                    then south 8 to 10 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Fair until 1900. Poor after 2000.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........85  85  80  80  75  75  70  70  70  70  65  65
Weather cov.....SCT ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of pcpn (%).30  20  20  20  10  10  20  20  20  20  20  20
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Temp............66  64  61  59  58  56  56  56  56  53  53  52
RH..............46  51  53  57  59  60  65  62  65  68  68  69
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
20 FT wind spd..6   5   4   3   2   1   3   3   4   4   5   5
20 FT wind gust.12  10  7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7   7
Ridge wind dir..W   W   W   W   W   SW  S   S   S   S   S   S
Ridge wind spd..15  10  10  10  5   5   10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...3.0 2.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1
Transp wind dir.W   SW  S   S   S   SW  S   S   S   SE  S   S
Transp wind spd.16  12  9   8   7   6   8   8   9   9   10  10
SDspl kt-ft/100041  20  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0

.MONDAY...

Sky/weather.........Increasing clouds. Scattered rain
                    showers and thunderstorms in the morning,
                    then becoming widespread in the afternoon.
CWR.................1 percent increasing to 61 percent in the
                    afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......70 percent.
Chance of thunder...37 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 69.
Min humidity........42 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms throughout the day.
Ridgetop wind.......South around 10 mph until 1500, then northeast.
Mixing height.......Increasing through the morning before gradually
                    decreasing by the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 9 to 10 mph until 1300, then southwest
                    around 8 mph until 1400, then east.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor throughout much of the day with slight improvements
at times during the afternoon.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........60  50  45  35  40  45  50  60  70  80  75  75
Weather cov.....        ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT NUM NUM NUM NUM SCT
Weather type....        RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........            ISO ISO ISO SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   60  60  60  60  60  60
Chc of pcpn (%).10  10  20  20  20  30  50  60  70  70  60  50
Chc of thdr (%).10  10  10  10  10  10  30  30  30  40  40  40
Temp............52  52  54  57  61  64  69  69  67  64  62  64
RH..............68  68  65  60  54  51  42  43  44  50  53  51
20 FT wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   E   E   NE  NE
20 FT wind spd..5   5   5   5   5   4   4   3   3   3   3   3
20 FT wind gust.7   7   7   8   8   10  10  10  10  11  10  10
Ridge wind dir..S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  S   E   E   NE  NE
Ridge wind spd..10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...0.1 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.5 6.0 6.5 5.0 3.0 3.5 3.0
Transp wind dir.SE  S   S   S   S   S   S   SW  SE  E   E   E
Transp wind spd.10  10  10  10  10  9   9   8   8   8   8   8
SDspl kt-ft/10000   0   0   3   13  28  47  46  37  22  24  20

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.TUESDAY...
Showers and scattered thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the mid 60s. Light winds.
.WEDNESDAY...
Showers and chance of thunderstorms. Lows in the lower 50s. Highs
in the upper 50s. Light winds.
.THURSDAY...
Mostly cloudy. Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
around 50. Highs around 60. Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...Dziewaltowski
Requested by...Hansen
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2520559.0/RIW
.DELDT 08/24/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL adam.hansen@usda.gov