332
FNUS75 KRIW 020124
FWSRIW

Spot Forecast for Taylor Draw Fire...BLM
National Weather Service Riverton WY
724 PM MDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2000 MDT on July 01.
If conditions become unrepresentative, contact the National Weather
Service

.DISCUSSION...

Morning conditions remain mostly clear with light southwest winds
through 1200. During the afternoon, scattered showers and a few
thunderstorms will develop on the higher terrain of the Wind
River Range and may approach the fire zone after 1300. These
showers would be accompanied by gusty and variable winds through
the rest of the afternoon. Gusty winds and high mixing heights
will bring excellent smoke dispersal through the day.

Gusty winds may continue through early evening before becoming
light and downslope terrain influenced. Humidity recovery will be
good, in the 60 to 70 percent range.

Shower activity will increase again on Thursday, and will be more
numerous. This will bring an increased threat for wetting
rainfall, along with variably gusty winds and occasional lightning
in the vicinity. Winds outside thunderstorms will remain from the
west 10 to 15 mph, with some gusts near 20 mph after 1300.
Moisture from nearby thunderstorms will keep humidity levels
elevated through the day, generally above 35 percent.

...Thunderstorms imply strong gusty and erratic winds...

.WEDNESDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny (30-40 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms late in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...19 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 84.
Min humidity........20 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Light winds until 1100. Winds southwest 7 to 11
                    mph with gusts to around 17 mph after 1300.
                    Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......1000 ft AGL until 0900, then 9000 ft
                    AGL until 1200, then 12500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph until 1600, then 17 to 18
                    mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 0900. Increasing to excellent after
                    1300.

TIME (MDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........20  20  15  10  20  10  25  35  30  30  45  55
Weather cov.....                            SCH SCH CH  CH
Weather type....                            RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........                            SCH SCH SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  20  30  30  30
Chc of thdr (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   10  10  10  20  20  20
Temp............56  61  66  72  76  78  79  81  82  83  81  79
RH..............49  45  39  33  27  25  22  21  20  21  22  25
20 FT wind dir..W   W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  W
20 FT wind spd..5   4   5   5   5   6   6   7   8   9   10  11
20 FT wind gust.7   6   7   7   7   8   10  11  13  14  16  17
Mix hgt (kft)...0.5 0.5 1.0 3.0 6.0 9.0 11  13  13  12  12  8.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  SW  S   SW
Transp wind spd.10  9   10  10  10  12  13  14  15  16  17  18
SDspl kt-ft/10006   5   7   26  55  88  122 149 170 165 183 140

.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (70-80 percent). Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening.
Chance of pcpn......30 percent.
Chance of thunder...17 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........62 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 7 to 9 mph with gusts to around 17
                    mph until 2100. Light after 2300. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms early
                    in the evening.
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL until 1900. 500 ft AGL after 2100.
Transport winds.....Northwest 14 to 17 mph until 2200, then
                    west.
Smoke dispersal.....Good until 1900. Poor after 2200.

TIME (MDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky (%).........70  75  85  80  90  75  60  65  70  75  75  75
Weather cov.....    CHC CHC CHC CHC CHC
Weather type....    RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........SCH SCH SCH
Chc of pcpn (%).30  30  30  30  30  30  10  10  10  10  10  10
Chc of thdr (%).20  20  20  10  10  10  0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............77  76  73  69  66  64  63  62  61  60  59  58
RH..............27  29  33  40  44  48  51  54  56  58  60  61
20 FT wind dir..W   W   NW  NW  NW  W   SW  SW  W   W   W   W
20 FT wind spd..9   8   7   6   5   4   4   4   4   4   4   5
20 FT wind gust.17  16  14  12  10  10  8   8   8   10  10  10
Mix hgt (kft)...6.5 3.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5
Transp wind dir.W   W   W   NW  N   E   SE  S   SW  W   W   W
Transp wind spd.16  17  14  14  13  9   9   9   10  13  14  14
SDspl kt-ft/100089  44  20  11  8   6   5   5   6   8   8   7

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.INDEPENDENCE DAY...
Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in the
lower 50s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 9 mph.
.SATURDAY...
Mostly clear. Slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. Lows in
the upper 40s. Highs in the mid 70s. West winds around 9 mph.
.SUNDAY...
Mostly clear. Lows in the upper 40s. Highs in the upper 70s.
Light winds.

$$
Forecaster...Straub
Requested by...Isaac Bayer
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2516872.1/RIW
.DELDT 07/01/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL ibayer@blm.gov